JPs Handicappers Overbet ?

[Old Vic]

This is a list of JPs Festival winners since AP was retained in 2004.

Someone with access to proform or similar might be able to a proper analysis but a glance down list would not suggest backing his handicappers is a good strategy. A lot of his near the top of betting markets again. The Champion Hurdle, Cross Country and Amateur races his main area of success.


2004 Pertemps Network Final Creon Jonjo O'Neill Timmy Murphy
2005 Glenfarclas Cross Country H'cap Chase Spot Thedifference Enda Bolger IRE Mr J T McNamara
2005 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Fota Island Mouse Morris IRE Paul Carberry
2006 Pertemps Network Final Kadoun Michael O'Brien IRE Tom Ryan
2006 Cheltenham Club Novices' H'cap Chase Reveillez James Fanshawe A P McCoy
2007 Glenfarclas Cross Country H'cap Chase Heads Onthe Ground Enda Bolger IRE Ms Nina Carberry
2007 National Hunt Chase Butler's Cabin Jonjo O'Neill Mr Alan Berry
2007 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Wichita Lineman Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
2007 St James's Place Foxhunter Chase Drombeag Jonjo O'Neill Mr J T McNamara
2008 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle Captain Cee Bee Edward Harty IRE Robert Thornton
2008 Glenfarclas Cross Country H'cap Chase Garde Champetre Enda Bolger IRE Ms Nina Carberry
2009 Ultima Handicap Chase Wichita Lineman Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
2009 Glenfarclas Cross Country H'cap Chase Garde Champetre Enda Bolger IRE Ms Nina Carberry
2010 Stan James Champion Hurdle Binocular Nicky Henderson A P McCoy
2012 Ultima Handicap Chase Alfie Sherrin Jonjo O'Neill Richie McLernon
2012 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir H'cap Chase Sunnyhillboy Jonjo O'Neill Mr Alan Berry
2012 Vincent O'Brien County H'cap Hurdle Alderwood Tom Mullins IRE A P McCoy
2012 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Synchronised Jonjo O'Neill A P McCoy
2012 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Bellvano Nicky Henderson Paul Carberry
2013 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle At Fishers Cross Rebecca Curtis A P McCoy
2013 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Alderwood Tom Mullins IRE A P McCoy
2014 Stan James Champion Hurdle Jezki Jessica Harrington IRE Barry Geraghty
2014 World Hurdle More Of That Jonjo O'Neill Barry Geraghty
2015 National Hunt Chase Cause Of Causes Gordon Elliott IRE Mr Jamie Codd
2015 Ryanair Chase Uxizandre Alan King A P McCoy
2015 St James's Place Foxhunter Chase On The Fringe Enda Bolger IRE Ms Nina Carberry
2016 National Hunt Chase Minella Rocco Jonjo O’Neill Mr Derek O’Connor
2016 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Josies Orders Enda Bolger IRE Ms Nina Carberry
2016 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir H’cap Chase Cause Of Causes Gordon Elliott IRE Mr Jamie Codd
2016 JCB Triumph Hurdle Ivanovich Gorbatov Aidan O’Brien IRE Barry Geraghty
2016 St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase On The Fringe Enda Bolger IRE Ms Nina Carberry
2017 Unibet Champion Hurdle Buveur D’Air Nicky Henderson Noel Fehily
2017 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cause Of Causes Gordon Elliott IRE Mr Jamie Codd
2017 JCB Triumph Hurdle Defu Du Seuil Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson

More stuff on this link http://files.constantcontact.com/205db977201/b724e83f-da12-4f70-9400-8c2f10581a39.pdf

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Good stuff OV, great to see you back.

On the face of it you’re probably right but the very first on that list was a 50/1 winner (from memory) so level staking punters will probably argue backing JP ‘cappers yields a profit.
I think probably thinks every horse he buys could be a championship calibre horse but he buys so many the majority end up low grade/‘cappers.
He does throw more darts than most though so always has chances...

 

[Old Vic]

Good stuff OV, great to see you back.

On the face of it you’re probably right but the very first on that list was a 50/1 winner (from memory) so level staking punters will probably argue backing JP ‘cappers yields a profit.
I think probably thinks every horse he buys could be a championship calibre horse but he buys so many the majority end up low grade/‘cappers.
He does throw more darts than most though so always has chances...

Hi Ista - Thanks to the 3 of you for improving things . Most visitors ever this week.

In some ways the 50/1 winner makes it harder for punters ...Kadoun was that when he won Pertemps. I think there was a Freddie Williams story around that win where he would only lay the 50s if he coupled it with the other 4 runners. It might actually be those wins in 2006 that lead to (my perceived) bookie caution and/or herd betting.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Some excellent new members too Boss !
Don’t forget this is a very different festival to the one JP (and others) targeted 15 years ago, 18 have become 28 so different approach possibly ?

Who of JP’s (‘cappers) would you think goes closest this year ?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Some excellent new members too Boss !
Don’t forget this is a very different festival to the one JP (and others) targeted 15 years ago, 18 have become 28 so different approach possibly ?

Who of JP’s (‘cappers) would you think goes closest this year ?

The rumours that Any second now has been laid out for the Novice Chase Handicap seems likely as he’s been backed into 8/1. However, it appears there’s a bigger gamble in the race in De Plotting Shed who is now into 5/1 and shortening day by day.

Would potentially have two plotted horses in the same race and both being backed like defeat was out of the question. Interesting stuff.

 

[Kevloaf]

Hi Ista - Thanks to the 3 of you for improving things . Most visitors ever this week.

In some ways the 50/1 winner makes it harder for punters ...Kadoun was that when he won Pertemps. I think there was a Freddie Williams story around that win where he would only lay the 50s if he coupled it with the other 4 runners. It might actually be those wins in 2006 that lead to (my perceived) bookie caution and/or herd betting.

Superb news on the number of visitors! Not sure how on earth I missed this thread until now! Agree that we've had some superb new members too, and lots of different opinions.

Some excellent new members too Boss !
Don’t forget this is a very different festival to the one JP (and others) targeted 15 years ago, 18 have become 28 so different approach possibly ?

Who of JP’s (‘cappers) would you think goes closest this year ?

MY personal view would probably be that the Pertemps is the race where JP is most likely to have a h'cap winner, purely based on the number he has in it near the head of the market.... Glenloe (fav), Sort it out, The Organist all very strong chances and A Great View and Protect De FLos all under 25/1...

Sort It Out my choice.

 

[charlie]

As I take what can only be described as a terrifyingly lackadaisical approach to doing my actual job, I thought I would go through all my ante post selections and start thinking more about my position on each individual race. It has led me back to plenty of horses owned by JP McManus. We all know the JP silks are synonymous with Cheltenham success and it’s impossible to knock the winning most owner with 50+ Cheltenham winners, but it was hearing the all too common phrase ‘JP plot job’ the other day that prompted me to look at JP’s handicap record at Cheltenham over the last 10 festivals (2008 – 2018). I appreciate I’m probably not reaching conclusions the bright minds of The Fat Jockey forum haven’t reached already, but I thought it would be interesting to look at the actual numbers. I wouldn’t let these numbers or stats influence what I back, but I thought would be interesting to look at.

Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
11 / 2 / 3 / 1
2 winners
2012 - Alfie Sherrin 14/1
2009 - Wichita Lineman 5/1f

Close Brothers
14 / 0 / 2 / 3

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
21 / 2 / 3 / 5
2009 - Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
2008 - Garde Champetre 4/1

Coral Cup
24 / 0 / 3 / 2

Pertemps
27 / 0 / 3 / 4

Brown Advisory
17 / 0 / 3 / 3

Kim Muir
19 / 2 / 2 / 3
2016 - Cause Of Causes 9/2f
2012 - Sunnyhillboy 13/2

Martin Pipe
16 / 0 / 2 / 1

County Hurdle
30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
2012 - Alderwood 20/1

Grand Annual
26 / 3 / 3 / 2
2018 - Le Prezien 15/2
2013 - Alderwood 3/1f
2012 - Bellvano 20/1

The ‘Plot’

Garde Champetre 2009 - 11-12 – top weight
Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
Wichita Lineman - 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
Bellvano - 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
Alfie Sherrin - 10-0 – Bottom weight

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
4 (14%) of those went on to win.
In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.

JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form

Squouateur
2016 - Martin Pipe – 7/24
2017 - Kim Muir – UR
2018 - Kim Muir – 3/20

Cheltenham 2019 - Kim Muir – 16/1

Bouvreuil
2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 - Grand Annual – BD

Cheltenham 2019 - Grand Annual - 33/1

Ivanovich Gorbatov
2016 – Triumph* - 1/15
2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
2018 - County Hurdle – 17/25

Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1

Le Prezien
2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

No Comment
2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16

Place Form 2018

Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
Early Doors - Martin Pipe – 3/23

The L15

Squouateur - Kim Muir – 16/1
Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle – 33/1
Bouvreuil - Grand Annual - 33/1
Glenloe – Ultima – 20/1

Like I said at the start, no revelations or ground breaking information, but it puts into perspective his strike rate, especially in races like the Coral Cup and Pertemps where he comes mob handed every year and never wins. Can someone find a JP double for the Coral Cup and Pertemps please because after all that its nailed on isn’t it.

 

[Humble Pie]

Well done mate

Puts JP plots in perspective

 

[Hurricane fly]

Charlie you’ve summed up my thoughts perfectly, I can’t stand hearing JP loves a plot, or the same goes for some trainers e.g David Pipe.

“Oh Pipe loves a plot for the handicap” you know who else does? Everyone, everyone is trying get winners anyway they can.

 

[Humble Pie]

JP & Pipe plots take me back too many years than I care to remember!

Couldn’t agree more
Off to see what I’ve bet in these plot races

 

[Quevega]

Excellent stuff Charlie.
The JP handicap blot.
It is just a racing phrase lazily trotted out by journalists and pundits/punters alike that retains some relevance with some people from back in the day.
JP's obviously had previous handicap successes prior to 2008. And has consistently had them dotted throughout a season also. But you'd think he would with the numbers he has.
It's a general problem with most gambling people to remember the one winner and not all the losses in between.
Too much unwarranted praise in this game on that basis.
The JP plot goes along with
Jonjo can get one ready -
Tony Martin plotjob's
and many more that I'm sure people on here can identify with.

Gamblers are always on the sniff, and if you've smelt it somewhere before then you'll probably go there again, even if you've been 100 times since and not got a sniff.

And in 10 yrs time we'll still be watching out for which one of pat Kelly's 3 horses he has in training is going to turn up at the festival in the pertemps.