Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Benjy23]

I would have to back him and watch from behind a cushion. :hopelessness:

Aye, I'm not even convinced how he'd go. Quite like the scenario where he's let loose on the front end. But seems hugely unlikely in the GA.

 

[Splinterboy82]

I would have to back him and watch from behind a cushion. :hopelessness:

I’ve a nasty vision of him clouting 1 at a furious pace & taking a handful out with him - lost track of the amount of well backed / handicapped Grand Annual horses I’ve been on that have been brought down / hampered / fallen when going well. Even money to get round half the time!

 

[Spectre]

Agree with this & Noel Meade far more the JP man for a novice in hcap chase than Mullins. However, I know he’s blindingly obvious, but is Coeur Sublime not an absolute stand out candidate for this? Has the previous festival form, top Irish novice form & probably been running to lower form than capable of due to the yard issues last few months too. Anything mid 140s & he’ll surely go mighty close here….

I think if you had a highly rated novice you'd more likely have a tilt at a weak looking Arkle.

It's worth looking back at Arkle's that have shaped up similarly, and generally you get a decent sized field and some bigger priced horses running good races.

Specifically with Coeur Sublime I'd give it a crack. Off a mark in the 150's it would be a good season to roll the dice in my opinion. He was only 4 lengths off Ferny Hollow first time up and that level of form would put him close.

He gave Riviere D'etel 13lbs second time up, which reduces to 7lbs in March, and he did too much trying to go with Ferny. Ridden with more restraint I don't think there would be whole lot between Couer Sublime and Riviere D'etel. He was the better hurdler, and their RPR's over fences are very similar. In fact he's less exposed than her over fences. Given some think Riviere D'etel would have beaten Blue Lord at Leopardstown, I think there's cause for thinking he's be right in the mix.

20/1 nrnb for the Arkle is one of the better prices out there in my opinion. Whereas 9/1-10/1 for the Grand Annual has limited appeal in what will be a very competitive handicap with plenty of horses that have been plotted for the race. Coeur Sublime whilst entitled to improve doesn't exactly look laid out.

Thedevilscoachman is potentially fitting the bill better than him in the novice division, and possibly even more so Buddy Rich, who Elliott has clearly targeted at this from a long way out. Plus there's the usual mix of horses that could run round there blindfolded who always run a big race over course and distance. The Grand Annual could be harder to win than the Arkle, and I think they're far better going there.

The acid test for me is taking my betting hat off and thinking like an owner. Which race would I rather go to, and it has to be the Arkle surely.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Anyone have any ideas where they might give Thedevilscoachman a run to get a handicap rating for the Grand Annual.

Time is running out and I just wonder if this is the target.

He's not entered up anywhere and I can't see an obvious race for him over 2 miles in Ireland.

Entries for the Grand Annual have to be in by noon on February 21 but my reading of the rules is that he's got until February 27 to have his third run.

The race conditions say: "The British Horseracing Authority has modified paragraph 6 of the Weights and Handicapping Code for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, February 27th may be taken into account. "

 

[Dandrew99]

Anyone have any ideas where they might give Thedevilscoachman a run to get a handicap rating for the Grand Annual.

Time is running out and I just wonder if this is the target.

He's not entered up anywhere and I can't see an obvious race for him over 2 miles in Ireland.

Entries for the Grand Annual have to be in by noon on February 21 but my reading of the rules is that he's got until February 27 to have his third run.

The race conditions say: "The British Horseracing Authority has modified paragraph 6 of the Weights and Handicapping Code for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, February 27th may be taken into account. "

Theres a beginners chase he could go for over 2m4f at Gowran which he could go for. Other than the Flying Bolt (which is past the deadline you said anyway) I struggle to see what else he could go for really, assuming he wants to stay in novice company in Ireland.

 

[Bonjers]

I can see the attraction with him, but surely you have to be concerned with the way he jumps? He's about as fluent as poor Josses Hill. You're not getting away with that in this race.

 

[Buckingham]

Theres a beginners chase he could go for over 2m4f at Gowran which he could go for. Other than the Flying Bolt (which is past the deadline you said anyway) I struggle to see what else he could go for really, assuming he wants to stay in novice company in Ireland.

Cayd Boy in a similar situation. Thought he might be a more likely candidate for JP than Thedevilscoachman given he came over to the Festival last year. Rated 149 over hurdles but beaten by a horse rated 137 on chase debut and 3rd to Blue Lord just half a length in front of a horse rated 132, looked like he could get in lightly here. Unfortunately am struggling to see where a 3rd run might come,

 

[jrjr]

Anyone have any ideas where they might give Thedevilscoachman a run to get a handicap rating for the Grand Annual.

Time is running out and I just wonder if this is the target.

He's not entered up anywhere and I can't see an obvious race for him over 2 miles in Ireland.

Entries for the Grand Annual have to be in by noon on February 21 but my reading of the rules is that he's got until February 27 to have his third run.

The race conditions say: "The British Horseracing Authority has modified paragraph 6 of the Weights and Handicapping Code for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, February 27th may be taken into account. "

I nominated him for the Plate in the Ante-Post comp. Would be more interested in him there than in the GA.

 

[ToniC]

Does anybody know anything about Entoucas’ well-being? I’m assuming injured, but haven’t heard confirmation of that

 

[nortonscoin200]

Theres a beginners chase he could go for over 2m4f at Gowran which he could go for. Other than the Flying Bolt (which is past the deadline you said anyway) I struggle to see what else he could go for really, assuming he wants to stay in novice company in Ireland.

Good call Dandrew99 - although I'm not sure if it augurs well or badly for Thedevilsgame's chance in the Grand Annual.

The Gowran race has provided some significant Festival pointers in recent years.

The meeting was abandoned last year.

But in 2020 Milan Native was second at Gowran and went on to win the Kim Muir for Gordon.

In 2019 Duc Des Genievres won the Gowran race on his third chase start for Willie and then romped home by 13-lengths in the Arkle.

The JP-owned Tower Bridge was second to DDG at Gowran that day and finished runner-up to A Plus Tard in the 2m 4f Close Bros at Cheltenham.

And in 2017 Mall Dini was 3rd at Gowran for Pat Kelly before finishing 5th in the Kim Muir.

So run well at Gowran and take your pick - the Arkle or the Kim Muir!!

Trouble is there's a big difference in the way Thedevilscoachman has been campaigned compared with Duc Des Genievres.

Four of DDG's hurdle runs for Willie were over a minimum of 2m 4f and his chasing debut was over 2m 3f.

He'd only had two runs over the minimum trip for Willie before landing the Arkle - an inspired piece of race planning which shows the merits of having a horse with plenty of stamina for the 2-mile Championship races at the Festival.

Thedevilscoachman has a completely different profile.

The furthest he ran over hurdles in five starts was 2m 1 1/2 furlongs.

His 2 chase starts to date have both been over 2m 1f.

So I can't quite see why they'd choose to step him up in trip at Gowran unless it was a case of having to.

Despite the jumping errors I reckon he'd have a big chance in the Grand Annual and I was fairly confident the owner would ensure he was in the line-up.

But now I'm beginning to think there are two possibilities:

1. This race has never been on their radar or

2. For whatever reason, they now find themselves boxed into a bit of a corner if the Grand Annual is the plan.

My guess is that it's odds against Thedevilscoachman coming here so I've cashed out at 25-1 for a very small loss and gone back in at 20-1 nrnb.

 

[Dandrew99]

Think that's a wise move nortonscoin200 , 20/1 NRNB against 25/1 antepost is a no brainer for most horses, but even moreso for this guy. Think he could quite easily have ran at the DRF if they were hoping to get a handicap mark, suppose in theory they might have targeted the beginners chase to run him over a sub optimal trip to get a workable mark. All ifs buts and maybes though, certainly wouldnt be advising the antepost price though.

 

[YoungHustler]

Funambule Sivola just won quite comfortably and Venetia Williams quoted Cheltenham next and not the handicap. I thought he had a great chance in the GA with a rating of 154 and was following in the footsteps of the trainer's Ibleo(after winning same Doncaster race) so was horrified to see him entered today. He'll probably go up a further 5 today and if he was mine, I'd still go the GA route as can't see him beating the top 3 in the Champion Chase.

 

[The Fellow]

Venetia has the winner for the Grand Annual already , running 3rd from a mark of 145 today

 

[TiggerRoll]

Funambule Sivola just won quite comfortably and Venetia Williams quoted Cheltenham next and not the handicap. I thought he had a great chance in the GA with a rating of 154 and was following in the footsteps of the trainer's Ibleo(after winning same Doncaster race) so was horrified to see him entered today. He'll probably go up a further 5 today and if he was mine, I'd still go the GA route as can't see him beating the top 3 in the Champion Chase.

Surely Before Midnight is the one to take forward from the Doncaster run now? Seemed to go too hard that day too so I thought you could mark his effort up

 

[Birds Nest]

Funambule Sivola just won quite comfortably and Venetia Williams quoted Cheltenham next and not the handicap. I thought he had a great chance in the GA with a rating of 154 and was following in the footsteps of the trainer's Ibleo(after winning same Doncaster race) so was horrified to see him entered today. He'll probably go up a further 5 today and if he was mine, I'd still go the GA route as can't see him beating the top 3 in the Champion Chase.

Froro banbou is the one thats following the footsteps of ibleo for her imo

 

[Speedy17]

Been pretty hacked off since Funambule Sivola won yesterday as he was my #1 for this. Obviously he'll go Champion Chase now so looking at alternatives, Before Midnight is the obvious one, hopefully doesn't get put up for FS win Saturday. The only other one who caught my eye is Rouge Vif. He won over the course and distance impressively in a handicap off 156 in Oct 2020, he's now down to 153. If the Nicholls stable comes back to form in time and he gets an entry he's definitely worth a chance. Can get 16/1 NRNB.

 

[Buckingham]

Been pretty hacked off since Funambule Sivola won yesterday as he was my #1 for this. Obviously he'll go Champion Chase now so looking at alternatives, Before Midnight is the obvious one, hopefully doesn't get put up for FS win Saturday. The only other one who caught my eye is Rouge Vif. He won over the course and distance impressively in a handicap off 156 in Oct 2020, he's now down to 153. If the Nicholls stable comes back to form in time and he gets an entry he's definitely worth a chance. Can get 16/1 NRNB.

I like Rouge Vif too - he's a nice trends fit (right age, out and out 2miler, cheltenham form, festival experience, not too many runs on the board) and is undeniably well handicapped. Its a leap of faith as to whether Nicholls can get him back but will be a big enough price to offset this. I'm holding off as I think given his recent form that you might better 16/1.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Wrong thread

 

[Speedy17]

Funambule Sivola +5, sounds like he's going Champion Chase anyway but Before Midnight was left unaltered at 148.

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Funambule Sivola +5, sounds like he's going Champion Chase anyway but Before Midnight was left unaltered at 148.

Brave Seasca only up +1 to 146 as well