Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Lobos]

Mozzie surely will run in the arkle now

He's pretty much no chance off that mark

Two have won off higher in the last 6 seasons. Mozzie isn't your normal Novice either. He's an 8 year old with 20 runs behind him over Flat, Hurdles and Chases. He's got a slightly better chance than no chance:stupid:

As for running in the Arkle......he's got pretty much no chance winning with a rating of 150:applause:

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Two have won off higher in the last 6 seasons. Mozzie isn't your normal Novice either. He's an 8 year old with 20 runs behind him over Flat, Hurdles and Chases. He's got a slightly better chance than no chance:stupid:

As for running in the Arkle......he's got pretty much no chance winning with a rating of 150:applause:

Like letsbeclearaboutit he looks to be rated to the hilt to me

Don't think either of them have anything meaningful in hand off those marks

To win the grand annual hes gonna need to be running to 157+

if hes that good, which i personally dont think he is

It'd be enough to go very close in a poor arkle

 

[Lobos]

To win the grand annual hes gonna need to be running to 157+

Can't get my head round this at all. Are you saying he's 7lb wrong??

 

[Exotic Dancer]

To win the grand annual hes gonna need to be running to 157+

Can't get my head round this at all. Are you saying he's 7lb wrong??

Whatever wins will likely need to run 7lbs or more above their mark.

 

[Lobos]

Whatever wins will likely need to run 7lbs or more above their mark.

Still don't get it. Doesn't make any sense at all.

 

[Kevloaf]

Still don't get it. Doesn't make any sense at all.

He's saying he's rated correctly at 150, so that's all he can run to, so 'something' will be well in against him therefore MMM won't win, as he'd need to run to 157 to maintain his advantage, which he doesn't believe he can do.

 

[Lobos]

He's saying he's rated correctly at 150, so that's all he can run to, so 'something' will be well in against him therefore MMM won't win, as he'd need to run to 157 to maintain his advantage, which he doesn't believe he can do.

Ummmmmmm. Unless , like me , you believe MMM is still well in on 150 . I'd love to find out who these other horses are who are well in. Any ideas??

 

[Kevloaf]

Ummmmmmm. Unless , like me , you believe MMM is still well in on 150 . I'd love to find out who these other horses are who are well in. Any ideas??

Not my circus, not my monkeys

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Not my circus, not my monkeys

Who trains that one? layful:

 

[Lobos]

Not my circus, not my monkeys

Oliwa sprawiedliwa zawsze na wierzch wypływa.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Still don't get it. Doesn't make any sense at all.

Of course it does

You need lbs in hand on your rating to be winning any big handicap

MMM will need to run to 155 absolute minimum as he is rated 150

 

[Lobos]

Of course it does

You need lbs in hand on your rating to be winning any big handicap

MMM will need to run to 155 absolute minimum as he is rated 150

Could quite easily do that but running to 150 will be fine as it doesn't look a very strong race at all.

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Could quite easily do that but running to 150 will be fine as it doesn't look a very strong race at all.

If MMM runs to 150 and all the others horses run to their OR then it would be one massive dead heat. Hence to win, off 150 every other horse has to underperform versus their rating or MMM has to run higher than 150 and more in excess of his rating than other horses are of theirs. Make sense?

 

[YoungHustler]

Could quite easily do that but running to 150 will be fine as it doesn't look a very strong race at all.

I think I may be one of the few who still likes MMM Lobos and I think he could easily run to mid 150s. I still think he comes here as Cromwell must have expected some tax after he won so easily at Cheltenham in October and how close he finished to Found A Fifty after being miles back with hold up tactics that although will need luck, should hopefully serve him well in the Grand Annual. Thst is my hope anyway!

I also like In Excelsios Deo.

 

[Ray]

If MMM runs to 150 and all the others horses run to their OR then it would be one massive dead heat. Hence to win, off 150 every other horse has to underperform versus their rating or MMM has to run higher than 150 and more in excess of his rating than other horses are of theirs. Make sense?

the odds of a mass dead heat!

 

[Quevega]

It was the thrown in that started this implying his mark is lower than his ability by a fair margin .
So if this is the case then his chances in the arkle are as good if not better.
Especially given his run style and number of other runners that might affect his chances.
He’d have a shout in the grand annual as one of the runners like all of them but IMO would need the vast majority to under perform or suffer bad luck.
Which happens but not very often So he’d probably also have to run above his rating by 4lbs and upwards.

I don’t think he’s even a 150 horse to be fair.

 

[Lobos]

If MMM runs to 150 and all the others horses run to their OR then it would be one massive dead heat. Hence to win, off 150 every other horse has to underperform versus their rating or MMM has to run higher than 150 and more in excess of his rating than other horses are of theirs. Make sense?

That's much more like it.

 

[Lobos]

I'm still waiting for someone to put up something else to run higher than their mark.........

I say again, if Found a Fifty were in this race would people back it ? Would he be Favourite?

 

[Lobos]

It was the thrown in that started this implying his mark is lower than his ability by a fair margin .
So if this is the case then his chances in the arkle are as good if not better.
Especially given his run style and number of other runners that might affect his chances.
He’d have a shout in the grand annual as one of the runners like all of them but IMO would need the vast majority to under perform or suffer bad luck.
Which happens but not very often So he’d probably also have to run above his rating by 4lbs and upwards.

I don’t think he’s even a 150 horse to be fair.

Looking at the last 12 winners, all of them were put up after their wins to a new Handicap mark that they were thought to have ran to and none of them won next time. Perhaps most of the others in their races did underperform.

 

[Quevega]

Looking at the last 12 winners, all of them were put up after their wins to a new Handicap mark that they were thought to have ran to and none of them won next time. Perhaps most of the others in their races did underperform.

I don't even know exactly what you're trying to say.

The Grand Annual is like a "Handicappers Go to Wank"
The roll call is full of horses that rarely win. Or occasional novices on lower marks. Dinoblue and Maskada off low 140's a good example.

Even when "the novice" Sky Pirate won off a mark of 152, he should have been beaten by the novice Entoucas (142)

Novices rated highly struggle in these races as their own mark is often very guessey and often arrived at by being rated against other novices in beginners chases, and they find themselves running against older horses that are not running consistently for want of a better word, or other novices where the mark has more breathing space.

My Mate Mozzie could win but he's probably not well in IMO.

I'd say the collateral will sway them arkle anyhow, but you never know.