Just looking at the betting for this and thinking out loud as usual about Willie Mullins.....
:highly_amused:
Since the race began in 2011, Willie has had a runner in the race every year:
2011 Blazing Tempo 11/1 5th
2012
Sir Des Champs 3/1
1st
2013 Marito 12/1 Fell / Aupcharlie 15/2 11th
2014 Felix Yonger 7/2F 4th / Djakadam 14/1 Fell / Mozoltov 11/1 Fell
2015
Vautour 6/4F
1st / Valsuer Lido 9/2 3rd
2016
Black Hercules 4/1C
1st / Outlander 6/1 Fell
2017
Yorkhill 6/4F
1st
Now the removal of Gigginstown horses has, for my money, definitely had an effect on the
numer of novice chasers Willie will have (as he's run a Gigginstown horse in the majority of runnings of the race (Balko Des Flos was with Willie at the start of 2017 who Fell in 2017 too)
However, as Mullins/Walsh have won the last 3 in a row, and Mullins has won 4 of the 7 renewals, it doesn't take a genius to guess that he is likely to aim one of his better horses at the race... backed up to my mind a little further down too....
So in the betting Mullins has:
Footpad 14/1
Bacardys 20/1
Invitation Only 20/1
Dalko Moriviere 25/1
Melon 25/1
Saturnas 25/1
Al Boum Photo 33/1
Bamako Moriviere 33/1
Bonbon Au Miel 33/1
Chacun Pour Soi 33/1
Koshari 33/1
Rathvinden 33/1
A few of them aren't quoted by PP, now some people probably won't care about that, but I do, and it is my post... so that eliminates Koshari, Chacun Pour Soi, Bonbon Au Miel, Saturnas... and they are ONLY shortest on Rathvinden at 20/1, however 33/1 is available with BFSB so that doesn't sit quite right for me to read too far in to it. - I am most reluctant to rule our Chacun Pour Soi, as in One Jump Ahead he is mentioned as a JLT prospect, and he is (in the same book) Rich Ricci's horse to follow for the season... but why wouldn't they have a price unless he'd had a setback? He also wasn't inthe Racing Post stable tour with Willie Mullins?
**edit** PP have Chacun Pour Soi at 20/1 Arkle, 20/1 RSA, not quoted JLT - looks more a mistake than anything... ?? WH are 14/1 any race though which would be a better bet than anything else...
Back to my list...I think it is pretty safe to remove Melon too, as he won't be going novice chasing, as well as the ones mentioned above
Footpad 14/1
Bacardys 20/1
Invitation Only 20/1
Dalko Moriviere 25/1
Al Boum Photo 33/1
Bamako Moriviere 33/1
Rathvinden 33/1
In the same time period (since 2011) Mullins' runners in the RSA have been Mikael D'Haguenet (fell), Quel Espirit (fell), Call The Police (3rd), Bostob Bob (Fell), Terminal (5th), Balleycasey (4th),
Don Poli (
1st), Adriana Des Mottes (4th), Shaneshill (2nd), Roi Des Francs (6th), Bellshill (3rd).
His only winner in that time being Don Poli and Mullins wanted to put Don Poli in the 4 miler, and gigginstown wouldn't allow it. Although a loose theory, my thoughts are that the JLT is a race that Willie has had more success with, will feel he knows how to win and with less novice staying chasers coming through (re: Gigginstown) and the
option of any stayers he does have going the 4 mile route for his son/assistant to ride are defintiely a factor...
In terms of debuts for Mullins' JLT shortest priced horse.... Yorkhill's chase debut was
17th Dec (a year to the day ago funnily enough), Black Hercules was
14th Dec, Vautour
23rd Nov, Felix Yonger
7th December, Marito
29th Nov, Sir Des Champs
3rd Dec
So the chances are, we've already seen his JLT horse... and although Djakadam and Outlander did debut over Christmas over fences, I am not sure whether that was by design or forced, but as mentioned, they weren't the stables 'fancied' horse.... which for me means I can rule out Dalko Moriviere .... *gone*
Leaving my a shortlist of:
Footpad 14/1
Bacardys 20/1
Invitation Only 20/1
Al Boum Photo 33/1
Bamako Moriviere 33/1
Rathvinden 33/1
Footpad is first, and obviously I've already thought about the
other race at the festival, the Arkle... might as well do the same bit of digging for this one as the other two novice chases... Since 2011 Mullins Arkle runners......
2011 No Runner,
2012 Blackstairmountain 20/1 5th of 6
2013 Arvika Ligeonniere 15/2 PU
2014 Champagne Fever 11/4J 2nd
2015
Un De Sceaux 4/6F 1st
2016
Douvan 1/4F 1st
2017 Royal Caviar 6/1 4th
Only 1 runner each year which is intersting to me (apart from 2011 when he had no runner) and all but one have been a Ricci horse (when UDS was the clear fav and Vautour won JLT 6/4 - certainly don't have any doubts myself that Vautour would have won the Arkle that season too but was better suited to the JLT as it transpired!)
What I DO think is interesting is that Mullins sends a 'top class' horse here when there isn't a 'superstar' in competition... Champange Fever, UDS and DOuvan are all grade 1 horses.... for me, Royal Caviar, Blackstairmountain and Arvika Ligeonniere are not... but they were up against Altior, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre.... it is very safe to say that there isn't a horse of that profile going in to this years Arkle, which to me suggests Mullins will fire one of his 'top prospects' at it... which from my list can only be
Footpad? He has mentioned him as an Arkle horse. The owners have also said they don't mind two in the same race with reference to the Arkle, so moderately reluctantly, in an 'open looking' Arkle, I am going to say Footpad will be a non-runner here (unless beaten over 2m at Christmas!)
Left with -
Bacardys 20/1
Invitation Only 20/1
Al Boum Photo 33/1
Bamako Moriviere 33/1
Rathvinden 33/1
Definitely can make a case for Bacardys, Invitation Only, Al Boum Photo, Bamaka Moriviere and Rathvinden being more likely RSA/4 miler types, however BLACK HERCULES was the fav for the 4 miler until a fairly late switch which proved to be absolutely spot on..... of these horses I have left, I am trying to think about which ones he has said "have speed/pace" ... I think you can just about make a case for all of them!
In the Punchestown champion novice hurdle,
Bacardys had Finian's Oscar 8/1 2nd fav and Death Duty 6/1 fav for the JLT beaten...he had his chance completely taken away at Cheltenham when a very well backed 2nd fav behind Neon Wolf that Willoughby Court won (3rd fav in JLT market) he also won the Grade 1 deloitte over 2m2f and although it looked to me at the time like he 'stayed on best', Patrick Mullins wouldn't exactly be the most stylish jockey and would be no nonsense, so being off the bridle first might be over played in that race? - He had Brelade in behind who is being used a yardstick this season for other horses too over a speed distance of 2m.
I agreed with the points made in the RSA thread about
Invitiation Only stepping up in trip, but it wouldn't be an almighty shock if IO ended up here? After all, his win was over 2m4f and that was the best piece of form we've got for him so far.... in the same ownership as the last two winners, Black Hercules and Yorkhill, I think it'd be crazy to rule it out for a 3rd crack for the owner? (Although I don't think he cares/has a say in where they do run!)
Al Boum Photo - looks a proper stayer, BUT has won over 16f, 17f, and 20f and been beaten over 24f (not a compeltely fair stick to beat him with as the 24f race was the best race he's contested) but again, I think it would be impossible to completely rule out a run in this race?
Rathvinden has a really strange profile because he's been off the track, but was only 3L behind the JLT fav Death Duty and is 5 times the price - his last 2 wins have both been over 20f as well and he placed 5L behind Faugheen over 21f at Cheltenham.... easily enough to say he could be aimed at the JLT
Bamako Moriviere is a horse I know someone else has made a case for and has a 16f win over Tombstone, and a 20f win (more impressivly) by 16L to Jury Duty who won next time out - could end up in any of the races (Arkle or JLT I'd guess) and is the one I know the least/have the least to say about!
Any thoughts welcome.... I haven't backed anything on the back of this yet... these are just thoughts.
