January ‘26 Yankee

[HoldenTheReins]

Is this the comment you’re referring to ?

‘She put up a fantastic performance to win the Betfair Hurdle and then finished sixth to Lossiemouth in the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. That was her first run over two and a half miles, and we are still querying whether she got the trip. We could look to run her in novices’ chases this season’

Ignore Hendo he’s losing the plot, when he sobers up someone will remind him he entered the horse when she was runner up to Wodhooh over 2m 4.5f at Cheltenham in Dec 24, form that looks better by the day…

That's the one, JP will decide anyway.

 

[Runragged]

Kargese for Arkle in the hope of a good run at the DRF, especially if KDB doesn't turn up.

Brighterdaysahead for Champ Hurdle. Looks an open race now this year and she has the best piece of form on offer (excluding CH). Could well serve it up to Lossiemouth at the DRF and Elliott already has Wodhooh for Mares.

Jagwar for the Plate. Bit of an obvious one but we know his target now and he won't be far away on form. His last two jumps cost him victory arguably at the weekend. You also have the winner Donnacha available at 33/1 who was stepping up in trip for first time and saw it out well.

Could even include a related treble of Talk The Talk - Supreme in light of a win this weekend, Skylight Hustle - Turners, the beneficiary of TTT fall last time and then Thedeviluno - Albert Bartlett, impressive winner at Doncaster over 3m who actually managed to beat Skylight Hustle over 2m on debut. Skylight ticks the box for me as a Turners winner being a grade 1 victor over 2m.

This may be the last opportunity to get Western Fold in the book at a good price. His form with Affordale Fury over 2 1/2m would bode well for the DRF whilst he was not disgraced behind Envoi Allen and Affordale over 3m at Down Royal.

Mares Novice I like Place De La Nation who is set to run in the rearranged Solerina on the 3rd Feb and La Conquiere who wasn't disgraced in open mares company in a race not run to suit.

Would also say Grey Dawning is a price for the Gold Cup but think I am the only one who likes him for it!

 

[jrjr]

Kargese for Arkle in the hope of a good run at the DRF, especially if KDB doesn't turn up.

Brighterdaysahead for Champ Hurdle. Looks an open race now this year and she has the best piece of form on offer (excluding CH). Could well serve it up to Lossiemouth at the DRF and Elliott already has Wodhooh for Mares.

Jagwar for the Plate. Bit of an obvious one but we know his target now and he won't be far away on form. His last two jumps cost him victory arguably at the weekend. You also have the winner Donnacha available at 33/1 who was stepping up in trip for first time and saw it out well.

Could even include a related treble of Talk The Talk - Supreme in light of a win this weekend, Skylight Hustle - Turners, the beneficiary of TTT fall last time and then Thedeviluno - Albert Bartlett, impressive winner at Doncaster over 3m who actually managed to beat Skylight Hustle over 2m on debut. Skylight ticks the box for me as a Turners winner being a grade 1 victor over 2m.

This may be the last opportunity to get Western Fold in the book at a good price. His form with Affordale Fury over 2 1/2m would bode well for the DRF whilst he was not disgraced behind Envoi Allen and Affordale over 3m at Down Royal.

Mares Novice I like Place De La Nation who is set to run in the rearranged Solerina on the 3rd Feb and La Conquiere who wasn't disgraced in open mares company in a race not run to suit.

Would also say Grey Dawning is a price for the Gold Cup but think I am the only one who likes him for

Re Jagwar, the quote I saw mentioned possibly going over further (Ultima) to help his jumping - has someone confirmed the Plate?

Re Western Fold, I’m not sure we’ll see the best of him at the DRF (if he takes up the entry), could see price drifting afterward. Seems to prefer better ground and Gordon alluded to this - in one of the stable tours I think.

 

[Runragged]

Re Jagwar, the quote I saw mentioned possibly going over further (Ultima) to help his jumping - has someone confirmed the Plate?

Re Western Fold, I’m not sure we’ll see the best of him at the DRF (if he takes up the entry), could see price drifting afterward. Seems to prefer better ground and Gordon alluded to this - in one of the stable tours I think.

Nothing confirmed, just that he will return for the Festival. His trainer said he settles better so may need further which would help his jumping. Switch from the New Course to the Old probably doesn't help either. Personally don't see him going Ultima just yet. Still only a 7yo and doesn't shape like an out and out 3 miler yet. Expect they will keep to the 2 1/2m trip.

Western Fold may well need the run against race fit rivals. Don't know if he is specifically a good ground horse. Soft ground would slow the opposition down at this distance.

 

[YoungHustler]

Re Jagwar, the quote I saw mentioned possibly going over further (Ultima) to help his jumping - has someone confirmed the Plate?

Re Western Fold, I’m not sure we’ll see the best of him at the DRF (if he takes up the entry), could see price drifting afterward. Seems to prefer better ground and Gordon alluded to this - in one of the stable tours I think.

I think there's a possibility Iroko could go for the Ultima meaning Jagwar for the Plate. I'm happy to wait to see if they enter Iroko for Kelso before deciding on Jagwar. The RP wrote the below.

The Ultima could also be under consideration, but the Cheshire-based trainers and McManus also have Iroko lined up for the race. Last season's Grand National fourth will head to either Kelso or Kempton ahead of the festival.

"Iroko is great, and we're waiting for the weights before deciding where to go," Guerriero said. "We might still go to Kelso for the Premier Chase [February 28] or the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton a week before. We'll have a think, but we'd like to run somewhere before Aintree."

 

[Eggs]

…..with DRF straddling the end of the month (31st and 1st), I suggest we use Saxon’s Race Planner to see if that throws up a few ‘clever ones’ for a DRF related multiple.

Next month should be very informative with Lobos at the helm, especially as we’ll have all the entries (including handicaps) to inform discussion.

 

[Eggs]

….so using the excellence of @Saxon Warrior DRF race planner;

Tattersalls 2m Hd; Winners have a terrific record at Festival, over the last 7 years 3 have gone on to win Sup, 2 the Turn. Slade Steel was 2nd before winning the Sup but generally the winners have a good record so clearly TTT is the one to take out. Worth looking down the field Absurde was 4th before winning a County, GDC 6th before winning MP.

ICH; Has produced CH winner 3 out the last 5 years, Honeysuckle responsible for a few of those. A race also producing a MH winners for obvious reasons.

Mares H’cap Hd; This is an interesting one. 2 placed horses in the last 5 years have gone on to win MNH (although none in the last 3). Heaven Help Us won before winning the Coral whilst Mrs Milner fell before her Pertemps win. The eye catcher for me (and Saxon) was the horse who finished 2nd, Dameauscottlestown for G Crowmwell. Ruby Walsh highlighted what a race she’d run to overcome trouble and finish close to the winner. Saxon got her priced up for MNH, she’s 25-1PP NRNB, 33-1 AP.

2m 5f Nov Ch; 2 winners in last 8 years have won BANC so Kaid an obvious one to take out. A few NHC (pre-H’cap) and a Plate winners finished down the field, so maybe a race to play back.

Dublin Chase; Weirdly the 2 recent CC winners were placed in this race. Also Min was 2nd before winning the Ryanair so the message is, don’t give up on the placed horses from this race (Marine & FAF).

2m Juv; in the last 7 years this has produced 5 TH winners. Terrific record. Difficulty is, 2 won this race whilst 3 were placed. Very good chance the TH winner comes from Narciso, Selma or Mange Tout.

2m 6f Lacy Nov Hd; Maybe another anomaly race, in the last 5 years the race has produced 3 AB winners but none of them actually won this. AB winners came 4th, 4th and 10th. Again, worth a look at the full result.

Irish Ark; just 2 Ark winners in last 7 years, both trained by W Mullins.

IGC; only 2 winners here in the last 7 years have gone on to win GC (both GDC). Interestingly, 2 placed 4th here (Minella Indo & Inothewayurthinkin) went on to win GC.

Sat Bumper; this has produced CB winner 3 times in last 7 years. 2 winners have also gone on to finish 2nd so maybe Broadway Ted shouldn’t be ignored.

Suggest posters draw their own conclusions but for me, strictly going on these trends, I’m doing this DRF Yankee. Nicely, one for each day of the festival if they line up;

Talk the Talk (Sup) 4-1
Dameausscottlestown (MNH) 50-1
Selma de Vary (TH) 7-1
Broadway Ted (CB) 14-1
30,599-1 NRNB Hills (27,743-1 AP)


i won’t put this up as a monthly Yankee but let’s know if you have any views looking at the summary of Saxon’s race planner.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Makes good sense to me. Thanks for putting the work in.

 

[Eggs]

….just to note, I cashed in NRNB Yankee I posted earlier (full return) & re-done with Hills who offer 50-1 Dameauscottlestown MNH

 

[Wayward Lad]

….just to note, I cashed in NRNB Yankee I posted earlier (full return) & re-done with Hills who offer 50-1 Dameauscottlestown MNH

Thats got to be the quickest cash out in the history of cash outs !

 

[Saxon Warrior]

….so using the excellence of @Saxon Warrior DRF race planner;

Suggest posters draw their own conclusions but for me, strictly going on these trends, I’m doing this DRF Yankee (Dameauscottlestown only available PP group). Nicely, one for each day of the festival if they line up;

Talk the Talk (Sup) 4-1
Dameausscottlestown (MNH) 50-1
Selma de Vary (TH) 7-1
Broadway Ted (CB) 14-1
30,599-1 NRNB Hills (27,743-1 AP)


i won’t put this up as a monthly Yankee but let’s know if you have any views looking at the summary of Saxon’s race planner.

@Eggs

Can I just say, that summary piece from the DRF meeting using one of my Information Diaries, has basically made all the 5 years I have been doing them worthwhile

To use them in the way I hoped they'd be used, sends me to a happy place.

They take a lot of time and effort to update (harder this season with 2 House Moves and 2 Operations taking time out for me) - but I take the time to update them when I can

So others can use them to form opinions, make judgement calls on races, rewatch replays etc

.....and then, if theyre really special and thoughtful....... then they can share those finding back to Fat Jockey to read and work solutions out from

What you've done today, honestly, makes it all worthwhile to post and update on here.

a hug and a thank you from very happy man.

PS: Re the 10-Year Festival RPR Trends Diary - Im letting the DRF RPRs come out and settle down (theres been adjustments already by the R.Post) and I will then update every race, every entered runner.

KIV

Today had 2nd Entry Stage and scratchings from the

●Gold Cup
●Champion Chase
●Ryanair Chase

Next Tuesday has Early Entries for the
● Mares Chase
● Mares Novice Hurdle

Plus
2nd Entry Stage to pay another fee or to Scratch from the

●Champion Hurdle
●Mares Hurdle
●Stayers Hurdle
●Supreme
●Turners
●Bartlett
●Triumph
●Arkle
●BANC

So I will cull those that get scratched from those races after next Tuesday