How Many Races Are Up To Scratch This Year?

[Mistycat1970]

If serge could win any UK race by 3 lengths I'd be amazed, and to call it a superstar is a complete joke! Don't think it will turn around form with Sam spinner never mind the rest

 

[Bigfish]

Big fish.

Do you have a rating for the win of Bristol de mai in the Betfair chase?

Yes , Scooby I have. I made it 5 mins. after the race. 172 Hvy. It doesnt take long as I use a race distance _3M and going_heavy conversion formula that was developed years ago. 63L at 0.40per L = 25lb rounded. The horses behind didn't act on the heavy and floundered, underperforming by 21lb. The second horse I rated 148 on heavy at 3M.

 

[kinloch brae]

Championship Races:

Champion Hurdle

Buveur D'Air vs Faugheen vs Yorkhill

or

Yanworth vs MTOY's vs Buveur D'Air

Champion Chase

Altior vs Min (vs maybe Douvan) / Politologue

or

Douvan vs God's Own vs Fox Norton

Stayers Hurdle

Supasundae vs Sam Spinner vs Yanworth

or

UNWIMH vs Ballyoptic vs Nichols Canyon

Gold Cup

Might Bite vs Native River vs Our Duke vs Road to Respect vs Sizing John

or

Djakadam vs Native River vs Cue Card vs Sizing John vs Outlander

Just to pinpoint a few in the markets. I'd argue all are better and stronger races compared to last season? Obviously Buveur D'Air looks an almost penalty kick with how the season has played out but if you had said at the start of the year you would have Buveur D'Air vs Faugheen vs Yorkhill then that would have been an unbelievable race to look forward to.

The Arkle is absolutely better.
The Ballymore (Samcro vs On The Blind Side vs Next Destination or Neon Wolf vs Bacardys vs Messire des Obeaux)
RSA (Presenting Percy vs Monalee vs Black Corton or Might Bite vs Whisper vs Bellshill)

Would also be other races i'd highlight. The JLT is looking a bit weak but I struggle to pinpoint many races where the previous year looks better than 2018 (on paper)

Add to the fact that the handicaps look even more competitive on first look...I'm not sure I get the downbeat attitude towards this season or festival (it has been an ongoing and consistent thought by many to be fair throughout the season)

Obviously all this is in hindsight. I'm always reluctant to judge the quality or strength of races before they are run.
Could be completely wrong but and i'll come back at the end of the season and read this back

So the key to your argument is if the current year looks better than the previous year then the current year is good relative to every festival ever run? Can you not have two relatively ordinary years in a row?

Do you think this years festival is above average, average, or below average?

 

[kinloch brae]

The trouble with assessing quality is that it's only in 2/3 years time will we really know.

At this stage I think the Ballymore is above average and the Supreme and potato races below average, but if the Supreme produces the next champion hurdle and Arkle winner I'll have to retract that.

The Gold Cup is already stronger with last years 1,2,3 showing up again as well as Might Bite, Our Duke and a couple of others.
The Stayers looks underpar possibly.

Handicaps will always be competitive and I don't have a strong view on the bumper, but the time to judge is probably April 2020...

The quality of a festival can only be judged on what they bring to the table on the day.

If a horse finishes last but then wins a big race three years down the line it can hardly be said to have enhanced the original race.

 

[TimRiggins]

The only thing not up to scratch, will be my surroundings... Last two years have been at a villa in Spain and jumping in the hot-tub between races. This year I can't even get my car out of the drive :disgust:

I'm not as immersed in the game as most here, though I enjoy it immensely. Just looking forward to a week of non stop racing, with no gym, and no work.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

The quality of a festival can only be judged on what they bring to the table on the day.

If a horse finishes last but then wins a big race three years down the line it can hardly be said to have enhanced the original race.

I don't agree KB, novices are never the finished article

 

[Kevloaf]

Hes already won the French Champion hurdle over 3M on soft going 'readily' . Perfect form.

That is not perfect form IMO fishy.

Does a 1.5L beating of Alex De Larredya win a Stayers hurdle, in any season? Absolutely not.

 

[Kevloaf]

How about beating Shaneshill 12L readily.(add 5L) taken as trueform then he should be rated 173.

You need to re-assess your rating system if that is the case Bigfish?

If Shaneshill ran his race that day, then how has L'ami Serge who beat him 10.5L been only running at low 160's since?

 

[charlie]

Tbf BF the response to ‘l’ami Serge is a superstar’ is a testemant to how nice people are on this forum. Long may it continue

 

[Kevloaf]

So the key to your argument is if the current year looks better than the previous year then the current year is good relative to every festival ever run? Can you not have two relatively ordinary years in a row?

Do you think this years festival is above average, average, or below average?

I Don't understand why it matters at all?

IT is the pinnacle of the season which is always relative to the season we're in...

I don't watch flat racing and get upset because Frankel isn't running.... or I'd not enjoy the sport for about 50 odd years until the next superstar arrives?

I don't understand why look at any of the races and feel disappointed.... the CH being a "walkover" is still better to watch than any of the other walkovers BVD has had this season... so relatively, it's the best 2m hurdle race of the season?

 

[jono]

So the key to your argument is if the current year looks better than the previous year then the current year is good relative to every festival ever run? Can you not have two relatively ordinary years in a row?

Do you think this years festival is above average, average, or below average?

No, the key to my argument was where I said i'm actually reluctant to judge the quality or strength of the festival before it has been run. As it can go either way. We could end up having some of the most memorable and highest quality races for a long time, or we could get the opposite or we could most likely a mix. It's an unknown right now.

I merely used a selection of last years races as a quick comparison. Of course you could get a whole decade where the festival is 'below par'.

You described this year as

...The Champion Hurdle should be a penalty kick, the Gold Cup is competitive but lacks a superstar and similar for the Stayers.

Very quickly though I could look at the 2016 and 2015 Championship races and a lot of the races those years I think you could say those points:

CH : Annie Power vs Nichols Canyon vs The New One [competitive but lacks a superstar - I would class Annie as a superstar but many wouldn't agree and it was a last minute switch]
CC : Sprinter Sacre vs Un De Sceaux vs Dodging Bullets
WH : Thistlecrack vs Alpha des Obeaux vs Cole Harden [penalty kick]
GC : Don Cossack vs Djakadam vs Cue Card

2015...

CH : Faugheen vs Jezki vs The New One
CC : Sprinter Sacre vs Sire de Grugy vs Dodging Bullets [competitive but lacks a superstar (not counting Sprinter here]
WH : Saphir du Rheu vs Zarkander vs Whisper [competitive but lacks a superstar]
GC : Silviniaco Conti vs Road to Riches vs Coneygree [competitive but lacks a superstar]

I don't think this year's lineups looks below par from them overall either, bar maybe 2016 at a push.

As above I'm not going to judge it at this stage of the season but for the sake of conversation, right now I would say it's at very least average but has the potential to be above average.

 

[Sirbetalot]

I do not think this year races are bad at all, a few oldies running, a few possible superstars, big handicaps nothing new and a few new kids on the block that could be superstars, so not bad at all and pretty normal.

We don't have any Kauto stars, Best Mates, Desert orchids and so on running this year, but them kind of horses come around once in a blue moon. Who's to say we won't be watching a few that will go down in history as one of the greats in a few years time.

 

[Old Vic]

Just imo but think it is a what they do later that gives true context

For instance IG beat AJ in triumph as market expected but best horse did not win

 

[jono]

Just imo but think it is a what they do later that gives true context

For instance IG beat AJ in triumph as market expected but best horse did not win

Completely agree. Taking the Altior Supreme as an example - there's no way we realised how good a race that was until a year or two after and it is still being proved now. And it was definitely a race that looked like it could throw up some very good horses but I don't think anyone would have gone into the the festival that year thinking it would have been SO strong

 

[Quevega]

We do look like getting 5/6 of last years championship winners coming back to defend, (nicholls canyon RIP) That can't have happened very often.

And in those championship races we have previous winners coming back also, cue card, vroom vroom, faugheen, two previous arkle winners in the champion, and in the gold cup the first five home last year are still entered up as well as last years RSa winner and the Hennessy winner, irish gold cup winner. lexus winner, and king george winner.
I'd say it's looking pretty good, aside from couple of staying novice chases and the supreme, that look a bit meh.
the Bumper, Ballymore and arkle look potentially very good renewals.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Opinions are always subjective fellas, I remember standing in Club watching Master Minded demolish the field for his first champion chase in absolute awe at the performance, to my left were a couple of guys whose immediate response was to criticise the lack of competitiveness in championship races bemoaning the ticket prices to witness it.

Conversely, Might Bite could win the Gold Cup half a length and get slated for not being more impressive....

 

[Robbante]

Supreme always a good pointer and this year is one of the worst supremes I can remember. Getabird aside, you’ve got all the others with muddled form and beating each other, the likes of Summerville Boy and Paloma Blue towards the head of the market.

Last year’s wasn’t much better with Labaik beating Melon and River Wylde, but in ‘16 you had Altior beating Min and Buveur D’air, ‘15 Douvan beating Sizing John and L’Ami Serge. The fact that every placed horse from ‘15 and ‘16 is right at the head of their markets for this year’s festival shows that they were quality supremes that have stood the test of time