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Gold Cup 2021

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
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Gold Cup Market as of 22/05/2020

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Really exciting division, as it usually is this far out!

Dual Gold Cup winner 6/1 in Al Boum Photo. The horse he kept an all important neck ahead of Santini is only 1 pt bigger to reverse the form.

The thrilling RSA chase pair of Champ and Minella Indo fill the next two spots and the formers jumping alone could probably warrant it's own thread :highly_amused:



Not had a bet in this yet, so I'll shut up for now.
 
I have several in the book already for this.....thoigh mostly with free bets (as good place for frees, given we know likely race horse will run it)

So far have....Topofthegame 33s, Lostintranslation 22s, Minella Indo 18s, Champ 16s, A Plus Tard 66s

Almost certainly looks like being wide open and another great race to watch and don't have particularly strong views. Al Boum Photo is one i will def have in doubles, etc.

Topofthegame one i like most at prices i have and think Minella Indo prob strongest of RSA ones

Not sure how the Cheverley park ones will split races yet....but one to watch with interest re how they progress and trips
 
Can't look past ABP. For me 6/1 is a stand out price for a dual winner. He could have further improvement in him as well being so lightly raced and relatively inexperienced over fences so we could see an even better horse next season.
 
Lobos said:
Can't look past ABP. For me 6/1 is a stand out price for a dual winner. He could have further improvement in him as well being so lightly raced and relatively inexperienced over fences so we could see an even better horse next season.
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I agree with lobos.


...that felt strange
 
ABP is clearly a worthy favourite but only had about 3 feet to spare over Santini last season and faces, for me, a talented bunch of chasers coming from the novice division as well as the delayed challenge of Top of the Game.
Has the makings of a great renewal and 6/1 is only a price I can throw in a few multis...
 
Istabraq said:
ABP is clearly a worthy favourite but only had about 3 feet to spare over Santini last season and faces, for me, a talented bunch of chasers coming from the novice division as well as the delayed challenge of Top of the Game.
Has the makings of a great renewal and 6/1 is only a price I can throw in a few multis...
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Yes that's a very fair assessment and mirrors how I feel in this race.

My only interest so far in the Topofthegame Hennessy/GC double
and
Al Boum Photo in whatever FJ yankee has been thrust upon me.





On a more general point, I feel like Al Boum Photo is one of the least popular 'legends' that we've ever had. He has to be classed as a legend now, joining just 6 (or 7?) other horses to be dual Gold Cup winners.

By least popular, I think everybody 'likes' him now, but you don't get anyone really talking about it.
 
I know exactly what you mean Kev maybe the lack of love is due to connections or possibly because he was unfancied in his first gold cup win. I also think that maybe because he never had a successful hurdle campaign and didn’t win the rsa also means a lot of us didn’t really connect with him. We all tend to hold those horses that have won us money over time in a higher regard. Most people will have only become a fan of his after his gold cup win because nothing he did before that was particularly flashy.
 
Kautostar said:
I know exactly what you mean Kev maybe the lack of love is due to connections or possibly because he was unfancied in his first gold cup win. I also think that maybe because he never had a successful hurdle campaign and didn’t win the rsa also means a lot of us didn’t really connect with him. We all tend to hold those horses that have won us money over time in a higher regard. Most people will have only become a fan of his after his gold cup win because nothing he did before that was particularly flashy.
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I think this is pretty much spot on for reasons why. He should be heralded more than he has been, but he's not in the public eye (racing) enough.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yes that's a very fair assessment and mirrors how I feel in this race.

My only interest so far in the Topofthegame Hennessy/GC double
and
Al Boum Photo in whatever FJ yankee has been thrust upon me.





On a more general point, I feel like Al Boum Photo is one of the least popular 'legends' that we've ever had. He has to be classed as a legend now, joining just 6 (or 7?) other horses to be dual Gold Cup winners.

By least popular, I think everybody 'likes' him now, but you don't get anyone really talking about it.
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Agree. He really is underated which is very surprising for a previous festival winner trained by Mullins let alone a dual GC winner. Not sure what to make of this year's Marsh/RSA bunch yet. Need to see what they do early doors. Agree TOTG is very interesting but again I'll need to see how he's come back first. At this stage ABP has to be the one to beat.
 
Waste of time warning: flagging up this horse is not going to set pulses racing but as a value each way bet it takes a bit of knocking down.

Name the horse who has finished in the first 4 at the last 4 Festivals - but is currently 50-1 for the the race which his entire season will almost certainly be built around.

Yes, it's Monalee who was beaten just 1 3/4 lengths by Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup - staying on resolutely up the hill in his first try at 3m 2f.

Arguably, he was a bit unlucky the ground went against him on the final day of the Festival (good to soft) because most of his victories have been on soft/heavy.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I'm slightly bemused to find it's taken connections this long to run him over the Gold Cup trip.

He won his solitary p2p by staying on best on soft/heavy over 3 miles before finishing second to Penhill in the AB three years ago - beaten 3 1/2 lengths.

The following year he was second to Presenting Percy in the RSA - beaten 7 lengths.

And last year he was a five length fourth to Frodon in the Ryanair.

He jumped and travelled really well in the Gold Cup but lost 2 or 3 lengths when the principals quickened after the second last. Monalee was about four lengths down and looked likely to fold. But after jumping the last he picked and gained ground on ABP in Santini's slipstream all the way to the line.

I backed him once or twice early in his career but he's never quite lived up up to expectations.

Even so, Monalee obviously loves Cheltenham and I'd say he's bound to have another crack at the GC next year. We're all talking about ABP being an under-rated Cheltenham legend ( I agree entirely) and that 6-1 is decent value (agree on that too). But if those two suppositions are correct Monalee at 50-1 is a very decent each way shout.

Yes, he'll be ten next year which is not the age you normally start winning the GC.

But he's lightly raced with 20 career starts being the same as Delta Work, aged 7, and 2 fewer than Clan Des Obeaux,8. What's more he's never been out of the first 4 in all 17 completed starts.

Anyone looking for a big priced each way double/treble could do a lot worse than include Monalee in my view. But I wouldn't have thought there's any rush on the price. He's about as fashionable as Dominic Cummings . And like Cummings he seems to enjoy a long trip.
 
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Haha, good post.

I would 100% back him 'on the day' at 50/1 - I've got no doubt that I'd do that.


The thing is, he may well be 50/1 on the day with some enhanced places about? He'll be 10 then, and surely nobody will be giving him a chance.



I know your thought process though, I did the exact same thing about a week ago (don't know if I posted or not, perhaps not) but I was watching all his races back. You can't say he doesn't stay. I want to say that, but I can't.



Very interesting, he's on my shortlist too, but like you, I probably won't do anything about it :highly_amused:
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Waste of time warning: flagging up this horse is not going to set pulses racing but as a value each way bet it takes a bit of knocking down.

Name the horse who has finished in the first 4 at the last 4 Festivals - but is currently 50-1 for the the race which his entire season will almost certainly be built around.

Yes, it's Monalee who was beaten just 1 3/4 lengths by Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup - staying on resolutely up the hill in his first try at 3m 2f.

Arguably, he was a bit unlucky the ground went against him on the final day of the Festival (good to soft) because most of his victories have been on soft/heavy.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I'm slightly bemused to find it's taken connections this long to run him over the Gold Cup trip.

He won his solitary p2p by staying on best on soft/heavy over 3 miles before finishing second to Penhill in the AB three years ago - beaten 3 1/2 lengths.

The following year he was second to Presenting Percy in the RSA - beaten 7 lengths.

And last year he was a five length fourth to Frodon in the Ryanair.

He jumped and travelled really well in the Gold Cup but lost 2 or 3 lengths when the principals quickened after the second last. Monalee was about four lengths down and looked likely to fold. But after jumping the last he picked and gained ground on ABP in Santini's slipstream all the way to the line.

I backed him once or twice early in his career but he's never quite lived up up to expectations.

Even so, Monalee obviously loves Cheltenham and I'd say he's bound to have another crack at the GC next year. We're all talking about ABP being an under-rated Cheltenham legend ( I agree entirely) and that 6-1 is decent value (agree on that too). But if those two suppositions are correct Monalee at 50-1 is a very decent each way shout.

Yes, he'll be ten next year which is not the age you normally start winning the GC.

But he's lightly raced with 20 career starts being the same as Delta Work, aged 7, and 2 fewer than Clan Des Obeaux,8. What's more he's never been out of the first 4 in all 17 completed starts.

Anyone looking for a big priced each way double/treble could do a lot worse than include Monalee in my view. But I wouldn't have thought there's any rush on the price. He's about as fashionable as Dominic Cummings . And like Cummings he seems to enjoy a long trip.
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Great post. He does have a superb record at the Fez without getting his head in front. Can't see him winning but he could well run into a place again. Won't be backing him myself as I'm only doing win bets this year regardless of the price.
 
Good points there NC.
I was too busy crying into my beer at Santini’s inability to get up that would have converted a trixie to notice Monalee’s run at the time, but there’s no question he finished alot closer than I believed he was capable.
I think most had Monalee down as a dubious stayer but he saw the trip out well, it may well be that the quicker ground helped him stay the trip and softer ground might test that stamina, who knows.
Good case and 50/1 clearly too big...
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha, good post.

I would 100% back him 'on the day' at 50/1 - I've got no doubt that I'd do that.


The thing is, he may well be 50/1 on the day with some enhanced places about? He'll be 10 then, and surely nobody will be giving him a chance.



I know your thought process though, I did the exact same thing about a week ago (don't know if I posted or not, perhaps not) but I was watching all his races back. You can't say he doesn't stay. I want to say that, but I can't.



Very interesting, he's on my shortlist too, but like you, I probably won't do anything about it :highly_amused:
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We need to find another decent 50-1 shot to make it worth having a little each way double. Any ideas?
 
Lobos said:
Great post. He does have a superb record at the Fez without getting his head in front. Can't see him winning but he could well run into a place again. Won't be backing him myself as I'm only doing win bets this year regardless of the price.
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Always great posts from NC200

How was your Festival?
Did you bet many ew last year?
 
This year's Gold Cup was slowly run so one can be easily fooled by horses with stamina doubts apparently looking to stay the trip. I would still have Monalee as a dubious stayer unfortunately. I would much prefer to side with Presenting Percy who is at 50s with B365. He was making his challenge when falling 2 out and Davy thought he had Monalee covered. We will never know but he is a guaranteed stayer having won an Irish national and although 10 next year, I think he will be campaigned similar to this year in that the Gold Cup will be the only race when he will be 100% ready.
 
At present the 2 horses I’ll be backing for this race until I see something to convince me otherwise will be Lost in Translation & Minella Indo. Native River came 3rd in his first crack at the Gold Cup in 2017 and went on to win it the following Festival for CT and the horses are similar. I think there is still improvement to come from LiT next season and I think 14/1 is a fair price. The case has already been made for Minella Indo on here, I think again he has all the attributes to win a Gold Cup if he doesn’t go too hard too early but I’m not sure if they’ll be able to sit him in the pack so may opt to run the rest of the field into the ground like Coneygree & Native River did??
 
The King Pimm said:
At present the 2 horses I’ll be backing for this race until I see something to convince me otherwise will be Lost in Translation & Minella Indo. Native River came 3rd in his first crack at the Gold Cup in 2017 and went on to win it the following Festival for CT and the horses are similar. I think there is still improvement to come from LiT next season and I think 14/1 is a fair price. The case has already been made for Minella Indo on here, I think again he has all the attributes to win a Gold Cup if he doesn’t go too hard too early but I’m not sure if they’ll be able to sit him in the pack so may opt to run the rest of the field into the ground like Coneygree & Native River did??
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I agree about Lostintranslation TKP. For all that his run seemed to fizzle out and ended up in 3rd (still a cracking run), this was off the back of a wind op, with no prep in between. He also has the beating of Topofthegame on their Aintree run the previous season, although I suspect that quicker track may have suited Lostintranslation a bit more than it did Topofthegame, I still think he'd have his measure myself.
 
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