Going Chasing / Staying Hurdling.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Agree. I'm still a bit old school and go with my gut a lot of the time and try to ignore trainer, jockey, pundits comments this far out. Doesn't always work out but there's only one person I can blame.

Yep, that’s more or less same as myself, but there’s plenty of posts on here using trainer quotes to back up their opinions.
End of the day it really is not right for a trainer to say something that helps people part with money, and then change after.
Just don’t say things that can be considered as factual, surely cannot be that hard if one is an honest individual.

 

[Exar Essay]

Yosser I know it’s a massive pain and I am sure trainers do put punters away sometimes, but in this case I don’t think that’s the case.

You’d mentioned elsewhere that your hunch was that she’d schooled badly. I agree. In which case, the change of opinion is justified.

 

[DenmanSacre]

I forgot Espoir D’Allen as soon as I finished writing so knew he would be brought up.

Lossiemouth is who I’m talking about so can’t really use her when I’ve based my argument around her.

Vauban for all he improved in rating didn’t win a race over hurdles since his juvenile season, didn’t win at Cheltenham following year.

Il Etait Temps was a second season novice and also wasn’t a top class juvenile, didn’t back it up the following year at Cheltenham.

Zanahiyr again improved but won once in her first run at Down Royal against a poor field, didn’t win again, didn’t win at Cheltenham following year.

Agree that they did improve not arguing that, just saying there’s very few juveniles who go onto win the next year at Cheltenham, which is what we are here to do, find Cheltenham winners. She may be competitive but at 7/1 there’s not a lot of wiggle room. How many of us thought Gala Marceau or Goshen would improve and be competitive? Most of us I’d say, there’s more that don’t make the cut than do. They can improve of course they can but to back up the following year is hard.

It is difficult for them to win the open grade 1s at 5 but the Mares is the easiest of them. There's usually a big gap between the Champion Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle winner and those finishing placed in the Champion Hurdle, as Zanahiyr did, would generally be better than the average Mares Hurdle winner.

Apples Jade is another one - should have won the Triumph and won the Mares Hurdle the next year.

2 of the last 8 Mares Hurdle winners were 5 year olds and I haven't checked but the number of runners would I'd imagine be low.

I've not backed Kargese but her being a 5 year old wouldn't put me off. Her keenness and her probably not needing 2m4 is why I haven't backed her. If she improves a stone like the horses in my example, she'd be bang there though. Rated 139 at Cheltenham last year so an extra stone puts her at 153.

That would have put her 2nd last season, joint second 2023, won 2022, joint winner 2021 and so on.

 

[Craigy14]

It is difficult for them to win the open grade 1s at 5 but the Mares is the easiest of them. There's usually a big gap between the Champion Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle winner and those finishing placed in the Champion Hurdle, as Zanahiyr did, would generally be better than the average Mares Hurdle winner.

Apples Jade is another one - should have won the Triumph and won the Mares Hurdle the next year.

2 of the last 8 Mares Hurdle winners were 5 year olds and I haven't checked but the number of runners would I'd imagine be low.

I've not backed Kargese but her being a 5 year old wouldn't put me off. Her keenness and her probably not needing 2m4 is why I haven't backed her. If she improves a stone like the horses in my example, she'd be bang there though. Rated 139 at Cheltenham last year so an extra stone puts her at 153.

That would have put her 2nd last season, joint second 2023, won 2022, joint winner 2021 and so on.

Aye I think you’re spot on with the mares assessment DS. But given there are already older potentially smarter horses that have been forgotten about or not with a ‘sexy’ trainer, Kargese price is poor imo.

Shes priced because of what Lossiemouth did last year and if they took her out the market they would probably have her sub 3/1.

 

[Lobos]

BDA won't truly be 6 until next March so that might have been at the back of their minds. Still a big baby and can go chasing next season.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Aye I think you’re spot on with the mares assessment DS. But given there are already older potentially smarter horses that have been forgotten about or not with a ‘sexy’ trainer, Kargese price is poor imo.

Shes priced because of what Lossiemouth did last year and if they took her out the market they would probably have her sub 3/1.

No argument with the price. I wouldn't back her at her current price without knowing she can settle. I think BDA and Golden Ace can be 150+ horses as well so looks like plenty of competition.

 

[Yosser]

Yosser I know it’s a massive pain and I am sure trainers do put punters away sometimes, but in this case I don’t think that’s the case.

You’d mentioned elsewhere that your hunch was that she’d schooled badly. I agree. In which case, the change of opinion is justified.

Probably is the case Exar. It doesn't really affect me to be honest. I was in the Jade De Grugy camp and backed her for the Mares Chase. It obviously affects my mares hurdle bets but if Willie decides to send Kargese chasing and JDG to remain over hurdles then I've had a bad result for sure. Its probably why I am so keen to take her on. Best result for me is she gets beat first time out and then i can get her onside :excitement:

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yosser I know it’s a massive pain and I am sure trainers do put punters away sometimes, but in this case I don’t think that’s the case.

You’d mentioned elsewhere that your hunch was that she’d schooled badly. I agree. In which case, the change of opinion is justified.

If that’s the case then the trainer should wait until schooling to say he is going chasing.
However one looks at it, the trainer has cost at least 1 punters money.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

BDA was 2 lengths behind Golden Ace in 2024 Mares Novice Hurdle. Golden Ace was 9 lengths behind Dysart Enos in the Aintree Bumper in 2023. Sometimes we can't see the wood for the trees. Why over complicate the 2025 Mares Hurdle. Thank me in March. Unless Lossiemouth turns up to ruin the Party.

 

[Lobos]

There's no hurdles in Bumper races though BTT. GA is currently at a different level over hurdles. Could all change though of course.

 

[Lobos]

If that’s the case then the trainer should wait until schooling to say he is going chasing.
However one looks at it, the trainer has cost at least 1 punters money.

We'd all moan though if trainers didn't say a word. Win some, lose some.

 

[Exar Essay]

If that’s the case then the trainer should wait until schooling to say he is going chasing.
However one looks at it, the trainer has cost at least 1 punters money.

Trainers are asked consistently and persistently about their intentions. When they are coy, they’re chastised. When they are open but plans change, the same happens.

I’m not sure why Gordon isn’t allowed to change his mind months after the initial conversation having been presented with new evidence.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

We'd all moan though if trainers didn't say a word. Win some, lose some. [/QUOTE

Sometimes it’s best to say nothing or if asked,maybe….. i am not sure yet, we need to do some schooling before we decide.
If that is indeed the case here.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Trainers are asked consistently and persistently about their intentions. When they are coy, they’re chastised. When they are open but plans change, the same happens.

I’m not sure why Gordon isn’t allowed to change his mind months after the initial conversation having been presented with new evidence.

He can still answer the original question in a way that does not make the punter have a definite view.
We don’t have a right to know things that the trainer don’t even know, but imo we do have a right not to be put away.
Whether intentional or not, he has put punters away by his answers.

 

[Exar Essay]

He can still answer the original question in a way that does not make the punter have a definite view.
We don’t have a right to know things that the trainer don’t even know, but imo we do have a right not to be put away.
Whether intentional or not, he has put punters away by his answers.

But that might’ve been his definitive view at that time. She looked a natural chaser and Gordon probably saw the schooling as a formality.

There are countless examples in life of where an unexpected occurrence makes an earlier statement appear untrue in retrospect.

‘Putting someone away’ implies that the statement was made with the primary intention of encouraging people to bet on a scenario he knew not to be likely. I really don’t think that is the case at all.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

But that might’ve been his definitive view at that time. She looked a natural chaser and Gordon probably saw the schooling as a formality.

There are countless examples in life of where an unexpected occurrence makes an earlier statement appear untrue in retrospect.

‘Putting someone away’ implies that the statement was made with the primary intention of encouraging people to bet on a scenario he knew not to be likely. I really don’t think that is the case at all.

Agree it’s not likely that Is the case, but anyone that parts with money because a trainer says he will go chasing and then days he doesn’t for whatever reason, has every right to be peeved.
Guess I’m just sticking up for the punter here.
Just find it annoying to be honest.
I hope his reasons for changing are understandable once we know.

 

[Guinness Village]

I feel that I’m big enough to lose my money all by myself. I generally make my own opinions and bet accordingly. A lot of information on social media is opinion and not fact. I’m often of a contrary opinion to some of the forum, but I suck it up. I would far rather follow the forums opinion compared with a tipster or podcast warrior

 

[Guinness Village]

Anyway, who’s at Cheltenham this weekend? We’re at kingys for a stable visit on Friday followed by both days racing and staying at queens. Glad to get any FJs a pint in members over the weekend

 

[YoungHustler]

Trainers are asked consistently and persistently about their intentions. When they are coy, they’re chastised. When they are open but plans change, the same happens.

I’m not sure why Gordon isn’t allowed to change his mind months after the initial conversation having been presented with new evidence.

I've lost plenty along with the dream of winning plenty but agree that there's nothing wrong with trainers and owners changing their minds. It's part and parcel of the game and I've already accepted it and moved on. What I'd love to ask Gordon is, has Brighterdaysahead schooled over fences or not?

 

[Lobos]

With BDA confirmed sticking to Hurdles I expected a run on Jade De Grugy for the Mares Chase but her price hasn't dropped at all and in fact she's been pushed out a point by a couple whilst her own price in the Mares Hurdle has been stable. Perhaps she too is going to give fences a miss this season.