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Glorious Goodwood 2021

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Though more likely to be showery Goodwood and soft ground (though Weds/Thurs may be drier)

The feature race today is the Goodwood Cup dominated by the Stradivarius question.
I've just re-watched the last two Ascot Gold Cups and last year's Goodwood Cup and noticed that Stradivarius got into some trouble in running in each race with his style of lying midfield on the inside and then moving out to deliver his challenge. Nayef Road was the measure of those races so I think this year's Ascot Gold Cup was a higher standard (with Subjectivist) than those earlier races. But there's no Subjectivist in this race so one could argue that Stradivarius (with his record) is still the form horse though he was beaten by the progressive Spanish Mission at Ascot who was well beaten in this race last year.

So for better value I pick Spanish Mission.

I know that Serpentine won a sub standard Derby but he won it well and 16/1 seems a high price for a Derby winner who may be better suited by this course (though maybe not the soft going)
 
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Not sure spanish mission will like the ground

Its a no bet race for me, think trueshan will probably win but can't bet against stradivarius
 
Stradivarious might get pulled on ground.

I’ve taken a flyer on Santiago who could well become a leading stayer with age and experience, only 4 so time on his side, ran well in the race last year and although has it all to do at the weights he has potential so that’s where my dart landed…
 
Trueshan certainly prefers softer ground but has disappointed in two big handicaps - maybe it's the hurly burly of those races. Reproducing the October Ascot race would be good enough.
I think O'Brien runs Amrhan Na Bfiann to control the race from the front for Santiago and Serpentine. Santiago won the Queen's Vase on soft ground but Ryan Moore prefers Serpentine. This is a difficult but fascinating race.
 
Trueshan is a funny one

He has 1 piece of top form

The rest of his form is pretty average and not near group 1 level
 
Only bet I'm having at Goodwood today is a free bet on It's Good To Laugh in the first race, intrigued as to why Oisin has been booked for this ride.

Other than that, using my better judgement and giving the rest of the card a swerve. I hope Creative Force wins as I like the horse but I've concerns about how his race will pan out from his low draw given he's a hold up horse.
​​​​
 
Down to 11 runners in the competitive Chesterfield Cup: Johnny Drama/Victory Chime/Lucander
 
Supermaster said:
Down to 11 runners in the competitive Chesterfield Cup: Johnny Drama/Victory Chime/Lucander
Click to expand...

Won easily by Migration at a short price. The winner's form is nothing special so I guess this was stable vibes. Victory Chime seems to have lost his way.
 
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The 2-y-o 7f (Vintage stakes) should be between Berkshire Shadow and Angel Bleu though the going may affect these 2-y-os - hard to know who will take to it e.g. it might suit the O.Brien horse.
 
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Supermaster said:
The 2-y-o 7f (Vintage stakes) should be between Berkshire Shadow and Angel Bleu though the going may affect these 2-y-os - hard to know who will take to it e.g. it might suit the O.Brien horse.
Click to expand...

Angel Bleu (1st 100/30) got first run and Berkshire Shadow (2nd 13/8) took time to get going. I think Berkshire Shadow may prove to be the better horse on better ground. Now 33/1 for the 2000 guineas. Better 2-y-os may yet emerge this season.
 
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Creative Force has good form on soft ground. Space Blues has classier form but is unproven in this ground. Safe Voyage has good form on soft ground
Selection: Creative Force
e/w Safe Voyage
 
With Spanish Mission a NR the argument for Santiago seems stronger. Also has Nayef Road been ignored unfairly?
 
Have read the opening post but wasn't sure if this a general goodwood thread also. Apologies if not.


Have taken a very small EW chance on Duhail tomorrow in the Sussex stakes at 33/1

I have opened the daily betting thread on my site as freely able to view for 24hrs, for anyone who wants to see all the backdated results and write ups, however to save your time in short, as above a small chance will be taken on Duhail tomorrow
 
Scooby91 said:
Have read the opening post but wasn't sure if this a general goodwood thread also. Apologies if not.


Have taken a very small EW chance on Duhail tomorrow in the Sussex stakes at 33/1

I have opened the daily betting thread on my site as freely able to view for 24hrs, for anyone who wants to see all the backdated results and write ups, however to save your time in short, as above a small chance will be taken on Duhail tomorrow
Click to expand...

It was meant to be a thread for this Goodwood meeting only like for Royal Ascot
 
Looking at the form of the later winners they didn't all have soft ground form but these were shorter races. Trueshan showed he's very good in these conditions.
Watching the aftermath of the race on ITV it really came across how short Hollie Doyle is. She certainly knows how to ride winners with a treble today. She's much quieter than a certain Italian jockey. It's very much a case of few words of wisdom with her.
 
Few picks for the week

Sussex stakes
Snow lantern 5/1

Molecomb stakes
Armor 6/1

Gordon stakes
Yibir 4/1 (money back 2nd/3rd)

Richmond stakes
Ebro river 6/1

King George Qatar stakes
Dragon symbol 7/2
 
A very competitive Sussex Stakes with the uncomplicated Poetic Flare a justified favourite - Goodwood should suit his running style of lying just behind the leaders.
One could argue his best form is on quicker ground but his Irish 2000 guineas run was pretty good.

This year's classic generation is proving to be above average and there's not much to choose between Snow Lantern and Alcohol Free. Has Snow Lantern improved past Alcohol Free or does the softer ground favour Alcohol Free? I don't think SL was inconvenienced by the softer ground at Ascot so I prefer Snow Lantern of these two

Of the older horses I think that French raiders are usually good value. On French form there's not much between Tilsit and Duhail. Fabre has a few good milers but choosing the consistent Duhail who acts on soft is significant imo.

So
Selection: Poetic Flare
e/w Snow Lantern, Duhail
 
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Good start with armor winning easily

Hannon really talked it up in the paper and you can see why
 
I think Alcohol Free won that on merit. Snow Lantern couldn't go with her when AF made her move. The ground looks much better today described as GS by Ryan Moore.
Poetic Flare ran his usual race and was beaten by a better horse on the day. Duhail.had to go the brave man's route so might have got 3rd with a better run but not to threaten the front two. Fabre may aim Duhail at the Prix du Moulin
 
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