Lobos
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Does that compare favourably with other top previous 3yo's at this stage of their careers?
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FinalFurlong91
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Last few winners before running in the derby
Lambourn 109 (won chester vase)
City of troy 124 (9th in guineas)
Auguste Rodin 117 (12th in guineas)
Desert Crown 117 (won dante)
Adayar 107 (2nd lingfield trial)
Serpentine N/A (won a maiden)
AVD 118 (won lingfield derby trial)
Masar 117 (3rd in guineas)
FinalFurlong91
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Lobos
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archie
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Interesting footnote to the interview where AOB was hedging his bets on CR:
A big question whenever O’Brien has more than one big Derby runner is which horse Ryan Moore will partner.
Giving an interesting answer to that, O’Brien said: “I think Ryan would find it very hard to get off Benvenuto Cellini, but I would imagine if Constitution River went he would probably get off Benvenuto Cellini. But it wouldn’t be written in stone.”
A big question whenever O’Brien has more than one big Derby runner is which horse Ryan Moore will partner.
Giving an interesting answer to that, O’Brien said: “I think Ryan would find it very hard to get off Benvenuto Cellini, but I would imagine if Constitution River went he would probably get off Benvenuto Cellini. But it wouldn’t be written in stone.”
Lobos
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archie
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So true it was worth double bubble!
I was posting somewhere else that Timeform have CR 6lb clear of BC and was reminded of the quote. All the royalties can go to you, sir.
Lobos
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So true it was worth double bubble!
I was posting somewhere else that Timeform have CR 6lb clear of BC and was reminded of the quote. All the royalties can go to you, sir.
Hurricane fly
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Not much of a flat fan but I do keep my eye on early season racing as I think there is decent value available (Chester is usually profitable).
Am I missing anything with Legacy Link? Looks a shoe in for Musidora given how her 2 year old form has worked out - even the maiden has winners and C2 placing etc.
Clear of the 2nd fav through Ribbon of the Sea
Beat Moment of Joy at Newmarket - 2lengths in front
Not sure the rest are up to anything
Am I missing anything with Legacy Link? Looks a shoe in for Musidora given how her 2 year old form has worked out - even the maiden has winners and C2 placing etc.
Clear of the 2nd fav through Ribbon of the Sea
Beat Moment of Joy at Newmarket - 2lengths in front
Not sure the rest are up to anything
Lobos
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Runragged
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How about a debate?
Do we think chasing at 4yo works in the long term?
I am edging towards no. Kauto Star is probably the best to have gone chasing at an early age, though we are now looking at over 20 years since he made his chase debut. The best since then possibly Fakir D'Oudaries who won two Melling Chases, an Ascot Chase and was 2nd in a Ryanair. Majborough has been shown up for jumping frailties and is 1 from 5 in open company, though was a wildly impressive winner of the Dublin Chase. Then we have the ill-fated Sir Gino. Sadly won't ever know how good he could of been and unfortunately we only ever saw him once over fences.
To make the best comparison I guess we need to look at those juveniles that had another season over hurdles before going chasing later in their career. Of late the obvious example for being patient is Gaelic Warrior, though equally, he was still very unexposed as a hurdler and was able to capitalise on still being a novice. Defi Du Seuil had an injury interrupted 2nd season hurdling, disappointing twice before successfully switching to fences. However, in open company, barring a fantastic 3 months where he won the Shloer, Tingle Creek and Clarence House he failed to be competitive in 5 further races and struggled with injuries. Footpad had another season over hurdles before having a fantastic novice chase campaign. However, he then struggled in open company winning just once in 6 starts and that was a listed chase. Like Gaelic Warrior, Il Etait Temps had another season hurdling as was able to take advantage of his novice status and it doesn't look to have done him any harm. Quilixios had a second season hurdling where he found Teahupoo too good on all three starts. He missed a season and switched to chasing on his return which has arguably been successful considering he has a rating of 161.
Obviously this is just my opinion which I've tried to back up and have probably missed some obvious other examples. Ultimately for me though, I don't think there is enough of late to support the case for going chasing so early, barring capitalising from the weight advantage in early season novice races. I doubt that would be the defining factor anyway when looking at the greatest potential talent.
What do you think?
Do we think chasing at 4yo works in the long term?
I am edging towards no. Kauto Star is probably the best to have gone chasing at an early age, though we are now looking at over 20 years since he made his chase debut. The best since then possibly Fakir D'Oudaries who won two Melling Chases, an Ascot Chase and was 2nd in a Ryanair. Majborough has been shown up for jumping frailties and is 1 from 5 in open company, though was a wildly impressive winner of the Dublin Chase. Then we have the ill-fated Sir Gino. Sadly won't ever know how good he could of been and unfortunately we only ever saw him once over fences.
To make the best comparison I guess we need to look at those juveniles that had another season over hurdles before going chasing later in their career. Of late the obvious example for being patient is Gaelic Warrior, though equally, he was still very unexposed as a hurdler and was able to capitalise on still being a novice. Defi Du Seuil had an injury interrupted 2nd season hurdling, disappointing twice before successfully switching to fences. However, in open company, barring a fantastic 3 months where he won the Shloer, Tingle Creek and Clarence House he failed to be competitive in 5 further races and struggled with injuries. Footpad had another season over hurdles before having a fantastic novice chase campaign. However, he then struggled in open company winning just once in 6 starts and that was a listed chase. Like Gaelic Warrior, Il Etait Temps had another season hurdling as was able to take advantage of his novice status and it doesn't look to have done him any harm. Quilixios had a second season hurdling where he found Teahupoo too good on all three starts. He missed a season and switched to chasing on his return which has arguably been successful considering he has a rating of 161.
Obviously this is just my opinion which I've tried to back up and have probably missed some obvious other examples. Ultimately for me though, I don't think there is enough of late to support the case for going chasing so early, barring capitalising from the weight advantage in early season novice races. I doubt that would be the defining factor anyway when looking at the greatest potential talent.
What do you think?
DenmanSacre
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Long Run was chasing at 4 and had a great career. Masterminded as well.
Those going chasing early inevitably end up in the open division earlier and the open chase division on the whole is much more competitive than the open hurdle division. Footpad was a decent grade 1 level hurdler, outstanding novice chaser but couldn’t make that step up in open graded races. I don’t think him staying hurdling for another season made much difference - he just had a ceiling on his potential that wasn’t good enough at open level.
I don’t think there’s a hard rule for it. Some horses will be physically and mentally ready for fences at 4 and others won’t. I think there’s a much better argument that running horses over hurdles as a juvenile is much better for their development than them running round in a PTP, running in bumpers or not being trained at all.
Those going chasing early inevitably end up in the open division earlier and the open chase division on the whole is much more competitive than the open hurdle division. Footpad was a decent grade 1 level hurdler, outstanding novice chaser but couldn’t make that step up in open graded races. I don’t think him staying hurdling for another season made much difference - he just had a ceiling on his potential that wasn’t good enough at open level.
I don’t think there’s a hard rule for it. Some horses will be physically and mentally ready for fences at 4 and others won’t. I think there’s a much better argument that running horses over hurdles as a juvenile is much better for their development than them running round in a PTP, running in bumpers or not being trained at all.
darlojim
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