General Chat

[BuckingThe Trend]

It is time for me to take an AntePost position on Novice Chasers for 2027 before Fridays 2m4 race at Punchestown. In my mind I have decided the top two English novice hurdlers are Act Of Innocence (BANC) and Old Park Star (Arkle) and I have bet them in the races shown in Singles and Multiples. I think the top two Irish novice hurdlers are King Rasko Grey (KRG) and He's On Fire (HOF) and my gut says KRG Arkle and HOF BANC. I am influenced by David Casey's comments about KRG being an Arkle horse and other than that comment I really can't separate the two as both appear to be best over 2m4 as novice hurdlers and they are most likely to be split up at Cheltenham and surely neither will go to the 2m4 Jack Richards Handicap Chase. Anyone got a strong view or inside knowledge to help me with my thinking. I want to get in before Fridays race.

 

[jrjr]

It is time for me to take an AntePost position on Novice Chasers for 2027 before Fridays 2m4 race at Punchestown. In my mind I have decided the top two English novice hurdlers are Act Of Innocence (BANC) and Old Park Star (Arkle) and I have bet them in the races shown in Singles and Multiples. I think the top two Irish novice hurdlers are King Rasko Grey (KRG) and He's On Fire (HOF) and my gut says KRG Arkle and HOF BANC. I am influenced by David Casey's comments about KRG being an Arkle horse and other than that comment I really can't separate the two as both appear to be best over 2m4 as novice hurdlers and they are most likely to be split up at Cheltenham and surely neither will go to the 2m4 Jack Richards Handicap Chase. Anyone got a strong view or inside knowledge to help me with my thinking. I want to get in before Fridays race.

I'm on a similar page with regards to the Irish pair. Assuming they'll be split, HOF looks like he'll want further than two miles which suggests the BANC. I also think Kawaboomga wants a trip and will go BANC if he goes chasing.

Regarding KRG, Casey's Arkle comments, Willie mentioning Churdle (which hints they see him as having two mile pace), plus a comment I read from Townend (I think) which mentioned they'd been thinking Supreme for him for most of the season, would naturally suggest KRG could be an Arkle horse. I'd have preferred him running over 2m this week and bolting up which would have cemented the 2m route in my mind for next season. Assuming he is declared for the 2m4f this week, it runs the risk of him putting in a strong staying performance and throwing doubt on next season. However. there's a fair chance he starts over 2m regardless.

I'd throw Bossman Jack into the mix for the English staying hurdlers. Don't reckon there'll be many better than him next season this side of the water.

 

[Wayward Lad]

It is time for me to take an AntePost position on Novice Chasers for 2027 before Fridays 2m4 race at Punchestown. In my mind I have decided the top two English novice hurdlers are Act Of Innocence (BANC) and Old Park Star (Arkle) and I have bet them in the races shown in Singles and Multiples. I think the top two Irish novice hurdlers are King Rasko Grey (KRG) and He's On Fire (HOF) and my gut says KRG Arkle and HOF BANC. I am influenced by David Casey's comments about KRG being an Arkle horse and other than that comment I really can't separate the two as both appear to be best over 2m4 as novice hurdlers and they are most likely to be split up at Cheltenham and surely neither will go to the 2m4 Jack Richards Handicap Chase. Anyone got a strong view or inside knowledge to help me with my thinking. I want to get in before Fridays race.

Why only considering novice hurdlers within the Arkle market?

Whilst nothing confirmed yet around next seasons campaign plan then both Kabral du Mathan and Anzadam have higher ratings as hurdlers than the first three in the Supreme.

Both same age as OPS (6) and Anzadam surely not staying around 2m hurdles at G1 level next season and apparently Kabral doesn’t stay, so CH or chasing ?

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Why only considering novice hurdlers within the Arkle market?

Whilst nothing confirmed yet around next seasons campaign plan then both Kabral du Mathan and Anzadam have higher ratings as hurdlers than the first three in the Supreme.

Both same age as OPS (6) and Anzadam surely not staying around 2m hurdles at G1 level next season and apparently Kabral doesn’t stay, so CH or chasing ?

You make a fair point. My original post should have stated "novice hurdlers going chasing" and not just Novice Chasers for 2027. I have actually had bets on both Anzadam and Kabral du Mathan for the Arkle. I think both are at the top of the Arkle list if they go Chasing.

 

[Istabraq]

Kabral surely won’t be dropped back in trip will he ?
Jumped the last in the Stayers in front looking all over the winner as a 6yo, a year older/stronger he in all likelihood wins a Stayers if they stay hurdling.
He could well be one they hold back for the 3m hurdle at Aintree but if he was to go chasing I would expect them to be targeting the big 3m heats…

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Kabral surely won’t be dropped back in trip will he ?
Jumped the last in the Stayers in front looking all over the winner as a 6yo, a year older/stronger he in all likelihood wins a Stayers if they stay hurdling.
He could well be one they hold back for the 3m hurdle at Aintree but if he was to go chasing I would expect them to be targeting the big 3m heats…

I am thinking the total opposite to you. Jumped the last in the Stayers in front looking all over the winner as a 6yo and just didn't stay. Will he ever stay 3 miles. Skelton was not convinced after this years Stayers.

 

[Istabraq]

I am thinking the total opposite to you. Jumped the last in the Stayers in front looking all over the winner as a 6yo and just didn't stay. Will he ever stay 3 miles. Skelton was not convinced after this years Stayers.

I'm not suggesting he wasn't fit going into the race but the Stayers was never seriously considered by Skelton until very late in the piece so I wouldn't be entirely convinced he had the perfect prep for the race.
I think he'd be a very warm order for a Liverpool hurdle if Elliott left Wodhooh at home...

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

My read is Skelton has The New Lion for The Stayers and Mydaddypaddy for the Champion Hurdle so I am thinking Kabral du Mathan goes Chasing and in my opinion he didn't stay 3 miles so that's leaves Arkle or Jack Richards and surely he is a G1 horse assuming he takes to fences.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I am thinking the total opposite to you. Jumped the last in the Stayers in front looking all over the winner as a 6yo and just didn't stay. Will he ever stay 3 miles. Skelton was not convinced after this years Stayers.

Pastorius hasn't sired anything thats won over further than 2m6f yet, maybe in time but for now the evidence is in Skeltons favour.
I'd be thinking the Jack Richards is a good fit myself, I guess it'll depend how he takes to fences and what else Skelton has for the Arkle, but we know he is a good target trainer for the handicaps so if he puts in a bad one or two early on over the wrong trip on bad ground, load up for the mid distance handicap.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Kabral surely won’t be dropped back in trip will he ?
Jumped the last in the Stayers in front looking all over the winner as a 6yo, a year older/stronger he in all likelihood wins a Stayers if they stay hurdling.
He could well be one they hold back for the 3m hurdle at Aintree but if he was to go chasing I would expect them to be targeting the big 3m heats…

If Kabral can’t get 3m over hurdles then not sure how will he get 3m over fences?

A year older may strengthen him up but dont see him running in the Stayers or 3m again - bookmakers agree 40/1 or the BANC @ 50/1

IF he runs at the festival next season then it’s Arkle or CH IMO

He’s still young (6) so I think they will try him over a fence - maybe more so if MDP goes CH?

 

[Wayward Lad]

Pastorius hasn't sired anything thats won over further than 2m6f yet, maybe in time but for now the evidence is in Skeltons favour.
I'd be thinking the Jack Richards is a good fit myself, I guess it'll depend how he takes to fences and what else Skelton has for the Arkle, but we know he is a good target trainer for the handicaps so if he puts in a bad one or two early on over the wrong trip on bad ground, load up for the mid distance handicap.

He’ll have to do a lot of skullduggery to get a young (still improving?) 156 OR 158 RPR horse into the Jack Richard’s with a chance

 

[Istabraq]

If Kabral can’t get 3m over hurdles then not sure how will he get 3m over fences?

He had one go at the distance, it was a last minute change of plan to go there, and he was around 125 yards short of winning it so for me he isn't a confirmed non stayer, as a 6yo his stamina can improve.
Many of these French horses come here off the back of multiple runs, there isn't always a heap of improvement to come on what we've seen already, this fella had just one run before heading to Skeltons so is still unexposed.
I could be wrong but I think it's too soon to say he won't get 3m...

 

[EnvoiAlien]

He’ll have to do a lot of skullduggery to get a young (still improving?) 156 OR 158 RPR horse into the Jack Richard’s with a chance

Oh he'll have a plan incase it doesn't show the pace for 2m over fences.I'm sure of it.

 

[archie]

I'm with Isty on this. KdM's best RPR over 2 miles is 141 and he was given 158 for the Stayers. The ORs for 2 miles and 3 miles have a similar difference. Add to this that the BANC is on the slightly easier Old Course and I've certainly no interest in him for the Arkle at this stage.

 

[Lobos]

Interesting from Willie with the Stayers Hurdle in mind....

"I’m not sure what way we’re going to go in the Stayers’. Teahupoo will be hard to beat, whatever we run.

We have four left in it: ABSURDE, JIMMY DU SEUIL, KAWABOOMGA and JADE DE GRUGY.

We’re looking at an end-of-season experiment to see have we got one good enough for a staying hurdle campaign next year."