General Chat

[Runragged]

Fcuking hell, the Weekender, haven't used that in years, but the festival ones, one for the first 2 days the wednesday before was always a joy to purchase, it was all so close

Yeah, always get the Cheltenham specific one they bring out a couple of weeks before the Festival. Is it a Weekender though? Doubting myself.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Yeah, always get the Cheltenham specific one they bring out a couple of weeks before the Festival. Is it a Weekender though? Doubting myself.

I'm sure it was back then, now I wouldn't know tbh, think the weekender/RP both got too pricey for what they was offering so I dropped both off my festival weekly shop.

 

[Killiney]

Heavy ground Gold Cup stat: this century only one winner out of 98 to try had run on heavy ground that season. The exception had Heavy in brackets after Soft. This last week at Lep the ground on chase course was soft and heavy on hurdle track. So they must have come close to heavy all round. So those horses that ran in the Irish Gold Cup came close to getting the wrong side of the stat! Interestingly (to me at least) Jango bypasses Newbury because of heavy ground this week end.

I guess the stat points to horses having a gruelling race and not being at their best in the Gold Cup. In my opinion there might be an argument that Lep was gruelling ground and may affect a number of those who ran on it. If you were to take this view then maybe the race is more likely to result in a British win!

 

[Quevega]

Heavy ground Gold Cup stat: this century only one winner out of 98 to try had run on heavy ground that season. The exception had Heavy in brackets after Soft. This last week at Lep the ground on chase course was soft and heavy on hurdle track. So they must have come close to heavy all round. So those horses that ran in the Irish Gold Cup came close to getting the wrong side of the stat! Interestingly (to me at least) Jango bypasses Newbury because of heavy ground this week end.

I guess the stat points to horses having a gruelling race and not being at their best in the Gold Cup. In my opinion there might be an argument that Lep was gruelling ground and may affect a number of those who ran on it. If you were to take this view then maybe the race is more likely to result in a British win!

It was only soft on the chase course.
The Irish arkle runners struggled to get home cos they went too quick.
Galopin won the Irish Gold cup on soft 2 years ago in almost exact same time and fashion, and that did him no harm.

This is no dig at you, and people will make their own judgements, but it's obviously not a great idea to dismiss any horses chances on the strength of thinking they had a hard race IMO.
Because it's so hard to really know.
Some horses will not be affected and win at cheltenham and some won't.
No doubt the ones that lose people will hark back to the Dublin race.
But not with the ones that go on to win.

Look back 2 years ago to the Dublin festival results and runners there. Pretty sure many winners (at least 4) went on to win and run very well at Cheltenham. And at least 4 or 5 others went on to win at cheltenham also.

The hurdle course wasn't as desperate as this year mind but it was definitely soft to heavy. Chase course soft.

Same in 2021, also a good year for follow up winners at cheltenham. I'm sure 6 winners followed up and that's not including at least 4 or 5 other winners from the meeting.

 

[Daisycutter]

It was only soft on the chase course.
The Irish arkle runners struggled to get home cos they went too quick.
Galopin won the Irish Gold cup on soft 2 years ago in almost exact same time and fashion, and that did him no harm.

This is no dig at you, and people will make their own judgements, but it's obviously not a great idea to dismiss any horses chances on the strength of thinking they had a hard race IMO.
Because it's so hard to really know.
Some horses will not be affected and win at cheltenham and some won't.
No doubt the ones that lose people will hark back to the Dublin race.
But not with the ones that go on to win.

Look back 2 years ago to the Dublin festival results and runners there. Pretty sure many winners (at least 4) went on to win and run very well at Cheltenham. And at least 4 or 5 others went on to win at cheltenham also.

The hurdle course wasn't as desperate as this year mind but it was definitely soft to heavy. Chase course soft.

Same in 2021, also a good year for follow up winners at cheltenham. I'm sure 6 winners followed up and that's not including at least 4 or 5 other winners from the meeting.

Timeform had it verging on heavy. 23lb slower than the Sunday on their going allowance. 2018 was the last time it was as testing.

 

[Quevega]

Timeform had it verging on heavy. 23lb slower than the Sunday on their going allowance. 2018 was the last time it was as testing.

Interesting ! This means the times of Majborough, Fact to File must have been exceptional. Certainly looked that way on the eye.
Very difficult to measure really to be fair, and timeform go off times ran which is a hard metric to perfect also.
Especially at Leopardstown where they have so much leeway to change the rails etc.

 

[Kauto’s star]

Heavy ground Gold Cup stat: this century only one winner out of 98 to try had run on heavy ground that season. The exception had Heavy in brackets after Soft. This last week at Lep the ground on chase course was soft and heavy on hurdle track. So they must have come close to heavy all round. So those horses that ran in the Irish Gold Cup came close to getting the wrong side of the stat! Interestingly (to me at least) Jango bypasses Newbury because of heavy ground this week end.

I guess the stat points to horses having a gruelling race and not being at their best in the Gold Cup. In my opinion there might be an argument that Lep was gruelling ground and may affect a number of those who ran on it. If you were to take this view then maybe the race is more likely to result in a British win!

I absolutely love this stat, read it years ago and always keep it in mind. Doesn’t stop me covering one who has run on it, but wouldn’t be a main dart for me. I think it’s more to do with the fact that historically the best horses have been kept away from that ground due to class. Would be interesting ti know how many “fancied” ones ever ran on heavy in the season leading to a gold cup.

 

[Craigy14]

Jus noticed this on twitter, might have an impact if folk are backing horses lower down the handicap thinking fields might not be filled…..

FIELD SIZE LIMIT UPDATESThe following races have lower field size limits in 2026 compared to 2025:

Coral Cup 26 > 24

Novice Handicap 22 > 20

County Hurdle 26 > 24

Just something worth noting that I discovered when digging through today

 

[Lobos]

Plenty of interest in Mullins Murcia for the County today. As low as 6's.

Same owner/trainer combo as Kargese last year. Very similar Rating.

 

[opatcho]

A note I’ve jotted down - murcia a very small horse, doesn’t want too much weight on her

Looks a plot since running at fairyhouse at start of season

 

[Ellisgittings]

Plenty of interest in Mullins Murcia for the County today. As low as 6's.

Same owner/trainer combo as Kargese last year. Very similar Rating.

I had her in mind for this before the weekend, she did run well on ground too soft. But a nagging doubt in my mind she's not as good as Kargese, and they're off the same mark. Given how skinny she is, happy to swerve

 

[Lobos]

Jus noticed this on twitter, might have an impact if folk are backing horses lower down the handicap thinking fields might not be filled…..

FIELD SIZE LIMIT UPDATESThe following races have lower field size limits in 2026 compared to 2025:

Coral Cup 26 > 24

Novice Handicap 22 > 20

County Hurdle 26 > 24

Just something worth noting that I discovered when digging through today

Bugger.

Wasn't convinced Helnwein would get into the County off 132 before and less so now with reduced field. He might have to run in and run well in the big Handicap Hurdle at Newbury this weekend to have any chance of getting in.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Bugger.

Wasn't convinced Helnwein would get into the County off 132 before and less so now with reduced field. He might have to run in and run well in the big Handicap Hurdle at Newbury this weekend to have any chance of getting in.

Only 16 ran last year, 17 the year before

So its unlikely to matter

 

[Lobos]

Only 16 ran last year, 17 the year before

So its unlikely to matter

 

[Lobos]

Just looked though and previous 10 years to that 24 or more ran every year so definitely need some luck.

Went further and looked at every full result for last 12 years and he'd have scraped in just 5 times (including the last twice).

The magic official rating is 134 which means he really needs to go up 2. The lowest to get in over those 12 years was 127. The average winner ran off 138ish so whatever way I look at it, its not great !

 

[Craigy14]

Just looked though and previous 10 years to that 24 or more ran every year so definitely need some luck.

Went further and looked at every full result for last 12 years and he'd have scraped in just 5 times (including the last twice).

The magic official rating is 134 which means he really needs to go up 2. The lowest to get in over those 12 years was 127. The average winner ran off 138ish so whatever way I look at it, its not great !

Remember most of those years was before the change to how many runs were required thus making it harder for novices to get required runs in.

 

[Benjy23]

Only 16 ran last year, 17 the year before

So its unlikely to matter

There was 22 declared in 2024 but 5 non runners on the day. So it wasn't quite as undersubscribed as it may sound.

It's the race you're most likely to get in though recently for sure.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Jus noticed this on twitter, might have an impact if folk are backing horses lower down the handicap thinking fields might not be filled…..

FIELD SIZE LIMIT UPDATESThe following races have lower field size limits in 2026 compared to 2025:

Coral Cup 26 > 24

Novice Handicap 22 > 20

County Hurdle 26 > 24

Just something worth noting that I discovered when digging through today

Looks like we need a heavy bit of Tax on Roc Dinos rating for him to get into the County…….

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Looks like we need a heavy bit of Tax on Roc Dinos rating for him to get into the County…….

That is the #1 reason I have not backed him. I don't think he will get in.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Looking at the Tatts sale in Newmarket today, lots 106 & 108 could be ones to consider if you fancy yourself a bumper horse for next season, looks like neither ever went into training, both got plenty of scope and a year off will do both a world of good.
Maybe we need a FJ syndicate oneday