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Eggs said:
Friday’s rearranged meeting at Naas, which is due to feature the Grade One Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, remains under threat too.

Clerk of the Course Brendan Sheridan said in midweek: "Things have improved but parts of the track are still unraceable. Where it’s raceable the ground on the chase course is yielding to soft; the hurdles (course) it's yielding, yielding to soft in places.

"The forecast is for temperatures of three to four degrees through today and tomorrow and staying above freezing tonight with the possibility of between five and millimetres of rain between now and racing."
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Waiting for updates on this, but haven't seen out yet
 
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Jrow said:
Does anyone think El Fabiolo could be lining up in the Coral Cup? I know he would probably be top weight but having watched Daryl Jacob below saying they will be sticking to the mid trip? I cant imagine they would skip cheltenham with him
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Aintree hurdle I imagine is the plan,they was happy to skip Cheltenham with IEP twice so don't think they're that concerned, even more so for a handicap when there's a Grade 1 at Aintree for him.
 
Definitely sounds like Gordon will be sending a few more than usual to the Dublin festival.
I suppose he has a few options so can do a bit of both, rune some and save some.
Might not be as much of a Mullins fest as usual.
Think he's fancying his chances for the title, and definitely thinks Jack has a good shout for the jockeys, so likely to support him with a few rides also.
 
Velka Pardubicka hero Stumptown could head straight to the Cheltenham Festival, where Gavin Cromwell is assembling a crack three-strong team for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.

Stumptown was sent off the 5-2 favourite when romping to victory in the Festival’s most unique event in 2025 and his handler has no qualms about defending his title on the back of just one run this season, when landing a famous victory on Czech soil.

Cromwell said: “Stumptown had a break after the Pardubicka but is fine. He’s back in full work now and we’re happy with him.

“He’ll probably just go straight there to Cheltenham I would say.”

Joining Stumptown in the Cotswolds in March could be stablemates Vanillier and Final Orders who have both also shown a liking to the challenge of cross-country racing.

Vanillier was third to Stumptown at the Festival last year, while Final Orders excelled in a similar event at Cheltenham in December and are likely to be given a further chance to state their claims at Prestbury Park on Trials day later this month.

Cromwell added: “Vanillier and Final Orders will have an entry the cross-country race at Cheltenham on Trials day.

“Hopefully we will have a nice team for the race at the Festival.”
 
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Was doing some maths on Stumptown, workings below, wouldn’t mind a second opinion on it. Might be getting things wrong..

Last ran in Ireland off a rating of 149 in Nov 2024. HRI still show this as his current rating - presumably, performances in races outside Ireland don’t alter their Irish base figure.

Went to Dec 2024 Cheltenham meeting and won off 149.

BHA put him up to 157 which is what he won at the festival off (ran in the National off the same figure as weights were already published).

Given a BHA performance figure of 163 for his festival triumph.

Since then he won the French race in Oct 2025, all runners carried the same weight.

In all his previous UK runs, the UK capper has increased his rating by virtually the difference between his race rating and his performance figure.

So, using the performance figure as a guide, likely to be running off circa 163 this year which essentially means they’ll put him up 6lbs for last year’s win. I don’t know if the UK capper will factor in the French win as well - if so, scope to be rated even higher.

Using Vanillier to put this into context. Van got 10lbs off Stumptown last year at the festival. Van ran in the race off 147, BHA performance figure of 146. His next UK race (excluding National) was at Haydock in December. Ran off 146 and given a performance figure of 141.

Assuming Van gets dropped a couple of lbs for the Xmas run, if they met tomorrow, it would mean the two would oppose off 163 and 144, 19 lbs instead of last year’s 10.

The point of this ramble is to consider whether Stumptown rates as solid a bet as he was last year - roughly the same price antepost (now) that he was when he went to post in 2025.
 
jrjr said:
Was doing some maths on Stumptown, workings below, wouldn’t mind a second opinion on it. Might be getting things wrong..

Last ran in Ireland off a rating of 149 in Nov 2024. HRI still show this as his current rating - presumably, performances in races outside Ireland don’t alter their Irish base figure.

Went to Dec 2024 Cheltenham meeting and won off 149.

BHA put him up to 157 which is what he won at the festival off (ran in the National off the same figure as weights were already published).

Given a BHA performance figure of 163 for his festival triumph.

Since then he won the French race in Oct 2025, all runners carried the same weight.

In all his previous UK runs, the UK capper has increased his rating by virtually the difference between his race rating and his performance figure.

So, using the performance figure as a guide, likely to be running off circa 163 this year which essentially means they’ll put him up 6lbs for last year’s win. I don’t know if the UK capper will factor in the French win as well - if so, scope to be rated even higher.

Using Vanillier to put this into context. Van got 10lbs off Stumptown last year at the festival. Van ran in the race off 147, BHA performance figure of 146. His next UK race (excluding National) was at Haydock in December. Ran off 146 and given a performance figure of 141.

Assuming Van gets dropped a couple of lbs for the Xmas run, if they met tomorrow, it would mean the two would oppose off 163 and 144, 19 lbs instead of last year’s 10.

The point of this ramble is to consider whether Stumptown rates as solid a bet as he was last year - roughly the same price antepost (now) that he was when he went to post in 2025.
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163 is a hell of a lot to win a handicap off. However, still only a 9yo whilst you would think Vanillier as an 11yo may be regressing slightly now. I would be more concerned with Final Orders, who assuming he got a 6lb rise would also be off 144 and getting 19lb from Stumptown. I'm also wary of the French horses who could get in off a low weight and have bags of potential still. The last Cross Country went against them with how fast the ground was an would much prefer some cut in the ground. On that basis Iceo Madrik and Placenet ran more than creditably. The problem currently is Stumptown could be putting a whole host of horses out of the handicap...
 
Kovanis entered at the DFR & also running tomorrow, puts him on the 5 starts required to run in a festival handicap, Martin Pipe ?

Hurdle Races where Novices Require a Minimum of 5 Hurdle Race Starts

The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 1)(Premier Handicap)

The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 1)(Premier Handicap)

The William Hill County Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 1)(Premier Handicap)

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 2)
 
Runragged said:
163 is a hell of a lot to win a handicap off. However, still only a 9yo whilst you would think Vanillier as an 11yo may be regressing slightly now. I would be more concerned with Final Orders, who assuming he got a 6lb rise would also be off 144 and getting 19lb from Stumptown. I'm also wary of the French horses who could get in off a low weight and have bags of potential still. The last Cross Country went against them with how fast the ground was an would much prefer some cut in the ground. On that basis Iceo Madrik and Placenet ran more than creditably. The problem currently is Stumptown could be putting a whole host of horses out of the handicap...
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I was using Vanillier more as an example than anything. Agree, Final Orders looked impressive last time out - although wouldn’t have Keith Donoghue onboard in March who must be worth several pounds around Cheltenham.

Your point about Stumptown putting horses out the handicap is a good one. Using the Dec meeting as an example, only Amirite (out of the 14 runners) wouldn’t have been running out of the handicap. Likely to get a better field at the festival but will impact some of the lesser lights for sure.
 
Wayward Lad said:
Maybe her main target of the year, looking for another Neville’s Hotel Hurdle performance from last year and then anything afterwards is extra ?
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Working towards peeking at Festival this year I reckon. 3 runs to peek last season. Same this ?
 
jrjr said:
I was using Vanillier more as an example than anything. Agree, Final Orders looked impressive last time out - although wouldn’t have Keith Donoghue onboard in March who must be worth several pounds around Cheltenham.

Your point about Stumptown putting horses out the handicap is a good one. Using the Dec meeting as an example, only Amirite (out of the 14 runners) wouldn’t have been running out of the handicap. Likely to get a better field at the festival but will impact some of the lesser lights for sure.
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Assuming Stumptown is 163 and top weight off 11st 10lb and bottom weight is 10st then you need to be within 24lb of him which would be a rating of 139.

Just looking at the Cross Country, boy it looks a shit race this year currently! Main rival in the betting is an 11yo who began the season in a P2P and would need a career best. I hope we get some from left field, quite possibly from the Elliott yard who likes to use this as a prep for the National. Maybe Three Card Brag or Intense Raffles for Gibney. Just something that would be interesting...
 
Runragged said:
Assuming Stumptown is 163 and top weight off 11st 10lb and bottom weight is 10st then you need to be within 24lb of him which would be a rating of 139.

Just looking at the Cross Country, boy it looks a shit race this year currently! Main rival in the betting is an 11yo who began the season in a P2P and would need a career best. I hope we get some from left field, quite possibly from the Elliott yard who likes to use this as a prep for the National. Maybe Three Card Brag or Intense Raffles for Gibney. Just something that would be interesting...
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Last year the race had a max weight range of 20 lbs (11’10 - 10’5) according to the info on page one of the race sheets that Sax/Eggs update each year.

Agree, it looks poor this year - why I was curious about people’s thoughts on Stumptown’s price..
 
EnvoiAlien said:
Kovanis entered at the DFR & also running tomorrow, puts him on the 5 starts required to run in a festival handicap, Martin Pipe ?

Hurdle Races where Novices Require a Minimum of 5 Hurdle Race Starts

The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 1)(Premier Handicap)

The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 1)(Premier Handicap)

The William Hill County Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 1)(Premier Handicap)

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race (Class 2)
Click to expand...

It's like you've tried to make it sound like non novices don't need a minimum of 5!
 
jrjr said:
Last year the race had a max weight range of 20 lbs (11’10 - 10’5) according to the info on page one of the race sheets that Sax/Eggs update each year.

Agree, it looks poor this year - why I was curious about people’s thoughts on Stumptown’s price..
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Yes, you are right, my mistake. Quickly looked at last years race and saw Chambard on 10st, not realising it included jockeys 5lb claim!

Stumptown is as short as he is because bookies want to avoid the e/w bets. He should be thereabouts again even though it will be tougher to win a handicap with a mark in the 160s.
 
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