I've brought up this idea before in passing but without going into huge detail, but I want to see how much interest there would be, and also see if there are any major flaws in the plan that could be ironed out.
What would people make of a weekly "naiad" type bet throughout the flat season? It gets a little quiet on here during the summer and it would seem to me like a good idea for a bit of interest throughout the flat season. We could just call the thread "the fat jockey weekly punt".
The main premise of the idea when I brought it up before, was we take advantage of having such a large community by all punting a chosen horse off the boards, and then laying off our stakes for basically a free hit at the chance of a big return every week. Weve seen the impact the naiad has on the cheltenham markets, so while i would assume that less people would be taking part in this punt, at least to begin with, we would also be betting into weekday flat race markets with less liquidity, and so should still be able to move a chosen horses price.
It's important to note that the big plus point of this idea is the idea that we as a group can move the market to the point that we can lay off for a free hit, so that we can go as many times as needed before we get a win without any losses on the way. When I posted about this before people were sort of talking about not bothering with the laying off part, but that would be the big plus point with this idea, the chance that we could continuously have a free hit until a big win.
There were concerns when I brought this up before about people's accounts being restricted if continuously being a part of a big gamble, and also people not being able to get on quick enough if they bet in shops etc. We could take steps to alleviate those concerns as much as possible through certain measures.
For example, the bet is posted on here on the morning of the race at a specific time (say 9-10am) so everyone taking part can be ready whether that is with your chosen account open or while in your local shop etc. rather than the evening before taking early prices, which may be more likely to get you flagged. We could also agree to only go with a horse whose best price is widely available, not just with one or two bookies. I would also advise that at the start, you place the bet with a smaller bookmaker account, an account that you don't use much and wouldn't care about losing, just in case something like this would get you flagged (I really don't think it would, I think people are overly paranoid with this stuff, but just in case might as well be careful at the start just to test it out). I also think it would be a good idea to have a minimum price, say for example at least 25/1. Bigger prices are easier to move, and therefore increasing your winning margin, like for example backing at 33/1 and hopefully laying off at 16 or something if we can move it that much, rather than backing at 8/1 and trying to lay off at 6.
I'd be interested to see what people make of this, and whether a lot would take part. I'd start a thread and kick it off if there was a lot of interest. I could do lets say the first 4 weeks, and if i get a win then i stay on for another four. If not I pass the baton to someone else for four weeks, and so on.
