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General Chat

Quevega said:
I'm on this side of the debate also.
I think he's average as it stands and needs a lot more to become a likely winner.

Like a lot of Elliot's horses, we're in his height of the season at the moment and they almost always start looking weaker propositions as we get to the middle of Feb. Basically most of his are probably under priced right now, it's just finding the really good ones he might have that's the task/problem, but that's likely to be one or 2 at best (aside from handicaps).

I'll be backing Heart Wood if the prices are right on Sunday.
Not as confident as I am with Lossie but just think he's the value of the 2 at the head, but it's far from a 2 horse race like the hattons is.
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I’m pretty sure I’d fancy a relatively seasoned 155 rated horse running over close to their optimum trip above a fair few of them in the Arkle market. I’m not sure finishing a good second to HW over this trip would dent Firefox’s Arkle credentials at all. Ofc if he gets well beat that’s different but that’s stating the bleeding obvious. If on the other hand Firefox does win surely he has to be taken seriously?
 
Rooster Booster said:
I’m pretty sure I’d fancy a relatively seasoned 155 rated horse running over close to their optimum trip above a fair few of them in the Arkle market. I’m not sure finishing a good second to HW over this trip would dent Firefox’s Arkle credentials at all. Ofc if he gets well beat that’s different but that’s stating the bleeding obvious. If on the other hand Firefox does win surely he has to be taken seriously?
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I agree,
Not sure how testing the ground will be by Sunday, but Elliotts main successes in the drinmore tend to be with horses better over further than the minimum. Like someone said earlier in the thread.
Not sure Gordon knows what this horses best/optimum conditions are, which is usually the case when they aren't top drawer.
 
Istabraq said:
I have a fairly strong view and not one that will be massively popular, but I think Firefox was well down the list of a very average bunch of novice hurdlers last year so for him to a serious chaser he will need to improve bundles and on his Down Royal (RPR 135) run the other week he will need to make Put The Kettle On type improvement.
Of course you can't dismiss any horse after the one chase start but this horse isn't your standard novice chase recruit, he will have had far more racing than most novice chasers he will come up against so I wonder how much improvement there is.
I should point out that my only bet in the race is on L'eau de Sud who bizarrely has a similar profile to Firefox in terms of experience, my defence is that I backed him at double the price Firefox currently is and LDS already looks a much better chaser than he did hurdler....
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well I’m not Saying Firefox is a good thing, although he could prove to be, but just that I was confident that the Arkle was the target.
 
I love Firefox as a novice chaser. I’d hoe he’d win comfortably and cement himself as a proper arkle horse. Perhaps next run at naas or leopardstown
 
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I’ve not taken to Firefox at all. I think he’s good, but no better. Not a fan of last years novices generally. I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is tomorrow and having a go at Heart Wood.
 
I have bought some hospitality on Wednesday of festival for Martin house charity. De of my guests have membership and so won’t need the club badges provided.
I will have a few club badges free to a fat jockey hoe if there are any takers
 
I'm in the Firefox camp.

I'm not sure he'll be good enough to win an Arkle, but he'll be there or thereabouts, IMO.

Gordon, from very early on last season said he couldn't wait to get him over a fence, and looking at him (Firefox, that is) you'd have to agree. A fine stamp of a horse.

I also think he would have got closer in the Supreme had he not had to switch. It all happened late on and he was never going to get going enough to be able to challenge in any way. I don't think he wins still, but most definitely closer than the end result.

He then ran with plenty of credit during the rest of the season in all the G1's.

He's just a solid horse.
 
After hearing that Paul Nichols backed Kandoo Kid ante post for the Hennessy @25/1, somehow it doesn’t sit well with me knowing it after the race and not before

It has got me thinking about whether there should be more transparency around trainers betting, particularly ante post and more importantly, what info the bookmakers get from accepting bets from trainers and in turn how their ante post books change as a result

I have a vague recollection that there was a hoo haa a few years back where bookmakers were highlighted as letting some trainers ‘get on’ in order to technically be buying information. As a result they could hedge the bet and then lengthen other horses within the race market.

The Gambling Commission state that gambling has to be ‘open and fair’……how is letting a trainer back one of his horses and not letting the public know, transparent, open and fair?

In financial markets, then if a key shareholder, stakeholder or/and senior management were to buy shares in the Company they worked for then this would have to be shared publicly, as otherwise it would be deemed as inside trading.

What’s the difference with insider trading and what Nichols and the bookmaker who accepted his ante post bet on Kandoo Kid have done ?
 
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Wayward Lad said:
After hearing that Paul Nichols backed Kandoo Kid ante post for the Hennessy @25/1, somehow it doesn’t sit well with me knowing it after the race and not before

It has got me thinking about whether there should be more transparency around trainers betting, particularly ante post and more importantly, what info the bookmakers get from accepting bets from trainers and in turn how their ante post books change as a result

I have a vague recollection that there was a hoo haa a few years back where bookmakers were highlighted as letting some trainers ‘get on’ in order to technically be buying information. As a result they could hedge the bet and then lengthen other horses within the race market.

The Gambling Commission state that gambling has to be ‘open and fair’……how is letting a trainer back one of his horses and not letting the public know, transparent, open and fair?

In financial markets, then if a key shareholder, stakeholder or/and senior management were to buy shares in the Company they worked for then this would have to be shared publicly, as otherwise it would be deemed as inside trading.

What’s the difference with insider trading and what Nichols and the bookmaker who accepted his ante post bet on Kandoo Kid have done ?
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Agreed. What is the difference between a bookie sponsoring the yard and getting information before the public and insider trading also?
 
Wayward Lad
Gambling Commission are rotten to the core, I wouldn’t be looking at them to protect you/punters.
Bookmakers have been paying trainers for info since the year dot and the GC permit it extensively by the way of yard sponsorship.
Take a look at the record of Bet365s boosts/super boosts and tell me that’s by coincidence…
 
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I have zero issue with connections backing a horse for a race, as long as they are not laying it.

Also, I'm pretty sure in one of the interviews Paul done he does state that Kandoo Kid was 'ready to go' and should run a big race. It's then down to whether you trust or believe said trainer.

We don't know for sure the bookmaker knew it was Pauls money that was being placed, I can't imagine he strolled up to his local bookmakers and chucked down a bag on Kandoo Kid, however, him after timing the shit out is something completely different!
 
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