General Chat

[robith]

Nothing to explain Q. Just prefer watching my bets win during the week over final profit. Both would be nice of course. But give me 14 winners out of 28 and be level than 3 winners from 28 and in profit every time. The latter would be a horrible weeks racing in my book. :eagerness:

In a long list, this is possibly the most insane thing you've ever posted Lobos hahaha

 

[Lobos]

Awesome
Wondered when it’d click

Both Handicap winners as well:excitement: Shakemupharry and Langer Dan.

 

[Lobos]

In a long list, this is possibly the most insane thing you've ever posted Lobos hahaha

Not really rob. I'm just an old fashioned sort. Just love going racing, taking it all in, few beers, the thrill of a win if poss and profit is always the last thing on my mind. I'm a dying breed.

 

[Kevloaf]

We should publish a Fat Jockey book of infamous quotes :biggrin-new:

 

[Exar Essay]

Thanks Exar :tears_of_joy:


I would look at it another way such as;

Really only 29 selections as Chianti picked twice and therefore also really only 2 winners and 2 non runners, unless Chianti backed twice.

Therefore 29 points staked and 40 points returned = 11 points profit = 37.9% ROI

Even looking at it this way it’s a great return and makes your point that being successful picking such large priced winners does cover a lot of losers and you only need a couple of them to finish in front at Cheltenham ! :cheerful:

Yes, you could look it that way. I saw it as 10 selections for each person, then amalgamated the two. So essentially, 2 points down. :encouragement:

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

At those prices?

Fair cop ! Deluded of Hayling Island here. irate:irate:irate:

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Fair cop ! Deluded of Hayling Island here. irate:irate:irate:

Hahaha
How is Hayling island these days?
Went there on holiday as a kid many years ago

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Hahaha
How is Hayling island these days?
Went there on holiday as a kid many years ago

The sun is shining and the sea is cold AND there are no bloody holidaymakers this time of year ! LOL.

 

[Exar Essay]

Does anyone else feel that Antepost prices are a little better this year? Yes there are some very poor prices around, but generally, the markets seem to reflect a little better the risk involved betting this far out.

We've had opportunity to get every novice hurdler in the book at 14/1+, every Triumph Hurdle horse at 25/1+, and every Bumper horse at 25/1+. Even Ballyburn was 5/1 and 12/1 for the Arkle and BANC respectively prior to the Turners being removed (even though it was an open secret that it was being removed). The best staying chaser since Kauto Star is 7/2 to retain his crown. Teahupoo at 5/2 today isn't terrible value looking at what he is likely to face on the day.

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Does anyone else feel that Antepost prices are a little better this year? Yes there are some very poor prices around, but generally, the markets seem to reflect a little better the risk involved betting this far out.

We've had opportunity to get every novice hurdler in the book at 14/1+, every Triumph Hurdle horse at 25/1+, and every Bumper horse at 25/1+. Even Ballyburn was 5/1 and 12/1 for the Arkle and BANC respectively prior to the Turners being removed (even though it was an open secret that it was being removed). The best staying chaser since Kauto Star is 7/2 to retain his crown. Teahupoo at 5/2 today isn't terrible value looking at what he is likely to face on the day.

Bang on. We're in stable tour season now so expect prices to start going as quotes continue to come out but considering we're now a week out from Down Royal, I'd say the prices still available for the novice hurdles and bumper are fair enough.

As for those two 'tried and tested' horses, the prices are more than fair. 5/2 for a horse that would be a dual Stayers winner with a better ride and has answered ground doubts to an extent, it's very fair.

Remember Facile Vega being a stupid price for the Supreme before he'd even jumped a hurdle... it's been refreshing to see a more open market, particularly for book builders.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Does anyone else feel that Antepost prices are a little better this year? Yes there are some very poor prices around, but generally, the markets seem to reflect a little better the risk involved betting this far out.

We've had opportunity to get every novice hurdler in the book at 14/1+, every Triumph Hurdle horse at 25/1+, and every Bumper horse at 25/1+. Even Ballyburn was 5/1 and 12/1 for the Arkle and BANC respectively prior to the Turners being removed (even though it was an open secret that it was being removed). The best staying chaser since Kauto Star is 7/2 to retain his crown. Teahupoo at 5/2 today isn't terrible value looking at what he is likely to face on the day.

Yes and No

Yes to Denise as many horses are standout best price or a match for best price

No to particularly SB and WH as I think their strategy is to not lay an ante post bet for Cheltenham!

I also think that the speed of cutting horses with some bookmakers to go under the market price and not lay a bet shows us just what they think of long range ante post markets like Cheltenham….they don’t like em because they make little money from them or lose from them and some probably would like to not offer them at all! :boxing:

 

[Odin]

Does anyone else feel that Antepost prices are a little better this year? Yes there are some very poor prices around, but generally, the markets seem to reflect a little better the risk involved betting this far out.

We've had opportunity to get every novice hurdler in the book at 14/1+, every Triumph Hurdle horse at 25/1+, and every Bumper horse at 25/1+. Even Ballyburn was 5/1 and 12/1 for the Arkle and BANC respectively prior to the Turners being removed (even though it was an open secret that it was being removed). The best staying chaser since Kauto Star is 7/2 to retain his crown. Teahupoo at 5/2 today isn't terrible value looking at what he is likely to face on the day.

Completely agree. This year is categorically the best of the four I've been doing since COVID - I didn't do COVID year properly which is annoying given literally every one of you made about a million points there looking historically at your numbers!

I think the novice hurdles have been helped by the form being extremely muddling and some prices have been held up by target questions (e.g., Ballyburn, Gaelic Warrior) but the others have been extremely generous relatively - Facile Vega was 2/1 for Supreme before jumping a hurdle...

Can't help but feel it will get considerably harder from next year though with Turners and NH Chase gone :indecisiveness::cower:

 

[Lobos]

Golden Ace form given another tidy boost. Fast becoming the value bet of the meeting for me at current price.

 

[Native River]

Running order changes to fest. All seems sensible enough, moving a few damp squibs like the mates races to earlier in the day, don't mind it.

 

[Studfarm254]

Golden Ace form given another tidy boost. Fast becoming the value bet of the meeting for me at current price.

I watched the mares novice race back there and she smashed brighterdaysahead. People can say she was getting 5lbs but that wouldn’t have made any difference. Was on the bridal the whole way to the last hurdle and put distance between them as soon as the jockey went after her, was going away at the finish. Has come out next run at Cheltenham and proved herself over the mares hurdle trip. How’s she’s 10/1 and brighter is 3/1 is beyond me

 

[Eggs]

I watched the mares novice race back there and she smashed brighterdaysahead. People can say she was getting 5lbs but that wouldn’t have made any difference. Was on the bridal the whole way to the last hurdle and put distance between them as soon as the jockey went after her, was going away at the finish. Has come out next run at Cheltenham and proved herself over the mares hurdle trip. How’s she’s 10/1 and brighter is 3/1 is beyond me

…read Fergal O’Brien’s stable tour earlier and in his piece about Dysart he praises Golden Ace;

‘It was lovely to see Jeremy Scott win the Mares’ Novices' Hurdle with Golden Ace. I know Dysart Eno beat her in the Mares’ Bumper at Aintree the previous season but I had said at preview evenings going into the Festival that I thought she was the one to beat. I had been very impressed when she won at Taunton.​‘

 

[Lobos]

Agree guys. If trained by Mullins she'd be fav and probably deserves to be.

 

[Exar Essay]

Agree guys. If trained by Mullins she'd be fav and probably deserves to be.

She had a small setback in early October. Probably nothing to be too worried about, but I'd like to see an entry first.

 

[Black Dog]

Running order changes to fest. All seems sensible enough, moving a few damp squibs like the mates races to earlier in the day, don't mind it.

So now the Turners is a novice hurdle :grief:, that's going to be confusing for a while.

 

[Odin]

So now the Turners is a novice hurdle :grief:, that's going to be confusing for a while.

Wonder how much that's because they kicked up a fuss about the novice chase becoming a handicap? :smiley_simmons: