General Chat

[Carnage at Taunton]

Forgive my naviety but surely if constitution Hill does run in the champing hurdle he wins? I know he was unfortunately missing from last years festival but if he returns he wins? No doubts about his choice of race either

yep, all eyes will be on his first race back, which I imagine will be the fighting fifth
His performance will probably decide a few horses campaigns!!
Hes so far ahead on his best form, I hope he can still run to his best or very near anyway, he’s a sight to behold.

 

[Yosser]

Well i am happy to be balls deep in Constitution Hill again after reading the press release Nicky has done this evening.


Nicky Henderson's update on Constitution Hill


Constitution Hill was ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival and the Punchestown Festival due to dirty scopes and a colic scare.

The seven-year-old hasn't been seen on a racecourse since the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle.

However, Nicky Henderson gave an update to the Racing Post : "He looks absolutely fantastic and I think he's got everything back- I've never seen him look so well!"


Could be getting a severe hair cut in the next hour
​

 

[Lobos]

FJ chat got going again proper these last couple of days. We've got our Mojo back !!

 

[Leman14]

Well i am happy to be balls deep in Constitution Hill again after reading the press release Nicky has done this evening.


Nicky Henderson's update on Constitution Hill


"He looks absolutely fantastic and I think he's got everything back- I've never seen him look so well!"

Historically, this is often followed a couple of days later with "he's out for the season..." :boxing:

It will be great to see him back, but I'm always wary when Nicky is positive.
(Charli Parcs anyone???) :biggrin-new:

 

[knockando]

A really random one - but listen to radio 4 in mornings on way to work (don't judge me) - only noticed today they've stopped the daily racing tips, reserving them for 'high profile' races

After Monday’s announcement, Michael Dugher, chair of the Betting and Gaming Council, told the Racing Post: “This is sad news but unsurprising. It also says a lot of about the current standing of the sport at the BBC.

“I suspect there have always been people at BBC Radio 4 that regard the racing tips as a bit ‘below stairs’ and, if they like racing at all, they only care about the big ‘dressing up’ meetings like Royal Ascot or Cheltenham.

“Millions of ordinary people enjoy a regular bet – whether that’s on bingo, the lottery or sports like racing. There’s definitely more than a hint of snobbery from the Today programme with this decision.”
​
Another kick in the teeth for racing :sour:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/a...-daily-horse-racing-tips-from-today-programme

 

[Lobos]

Historically, this is often followed a couple of days later with "he's out for the season..." :boxing:

It will be great to see him back, but I'm always wary when Nicky is positive.
(Charli Parcs anyone???) :biggrin-new:

Agree. No way anyone can back him without seeing him on the course first

 

[Ice]

Agree. No way anyone can back him without seeing him on the course first

I have backed him as couldn't resist the 5/2 on offer but I have used a lot of free bets as there's obviously concerns about him, hopefully all goes well and we seem him in November/December and that 5/2 looks huge !

 

[Spectre]

Agree. No way anyone can back him without seeing him on the course first

I disagree. His issues weren't physical. Initially it was Hendo dithering before getting him out at Christmas where he was very good. After that he had what struck everything else in the yard, and then he had colic. And not severe as a I understand it.

None of those things are likely to have any impact on his ability. Of course anything can happen in the interim, but I'd expect him to back A1 and quickly reminding everyone that he's the best Champion Hurdler for generations.

 

[darlojim]

After that he had what struck everything else in the yard, and then he had colic. And not severe as a I understand it.

I thought it was just suspected colic but not actually confirmed what the issue was Paul?

 

[Lobos]

Not severe!!!???.....

'A respiratory infection led to a spell in hospital with suspected colic and doubts over whether he would survive, let alone race again. But Henderson is confident the unbeaten superstar is back to his best.'

.....was definitely more than severe Spectre. Whilst Hendo seems to be giving him a clean bill of health, there has to be a big doubt as to whether he returns the same horse.

 

[Lobos]

I thought it was just suspected colic but not actually confirmed what the issue was Paul?

Think someone on here who visited yard said it was just suspected colic but that he had a deep infection which was very different to the other horses in the yard ?

 

[Spectre]

Think someone on here who visited yard said it was just suspected colic but that he had a deep infection which was very different to the other horses in the yard ?

Colic and an infection were two entirely different things. And colic type symptoms aren't colic. Colic is colic, and even then, unless surgery is required (it wasn't), then it's highly unlikely it would have any impact on his ability. A severe infection is something that's treated by antibiotics, and they leave no mark on a horses ability either. The only thing that usually could is if either required surgical intervention. We know that there wasn't. And we know there were no physical issues.

Also, and to be fair to Henderson, he's very open about him. He is not going to come out and make the statements he has if things are otherwise or say something that's untrue. That's just asking for trouble. The racing world would be all over him like a rash. I'm more than happy to take this at face value. Particularly when coupled with my own understanding of it.

I understand why people would be cautious (not least because of being burnt last season), but for me it's a very easy decision. If he's fit and well he wins, and if there's an underlying and lasting condition he may not, but in balance of probability it's highly likely the former. Vet's would advise if it wasn't, and Hendo would either be silent or reluctantly passing on the bad news. There are far too many people involved in the Stable to hide an ongoing issue, or to relay it as something else. It would already be out there in the ether.

Add in that he's the best Champion Hurdler we've seen for a very long time, and at anywhere near his best he's well clear of the Mullins pair. It's not even close. Even if you allowed for some regression he would still win, So at 5/2 he just has to be a bet. If he were evens or shorter I wouldn't be in a rush, but the odds when weighed up against the probability of him retaining his ability are very much in my favour, therefore it's not something I need to think too hard about. Essentially he's easy to back at the price, and he's easy to include in a selection of permutated multiples.

The alternative of waiting is that at 80% fit he will win wherever he starts out, and he'll immediately be 8/11. I hate using them, but the words 'no-brainer' definitely spring to mind in this case.

 

[Lobos]

A few have mentioned that since his CH win he's hit RPR's of 167 and 163 and that maybe he has reached the heights and has now regressed? His problems last season can surely not help so it remains to be seen whether he'll return anywhere near his very best. With the likes of Lossiemouth on a huge upward curve I don't think it's a no brainer bet by any means. That's the beauty of punting though !!!

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

A few have mentioned that since his CH win he's hit RPR's of 167 and 163 and that maybe he has reached the heights and has now regressed? His problems last season can surely not help so it remains to be seen whether he'll return anywhere near his very best. With the likes of Lossiemouth on a huge upward curve I don't think it's a no brainer bet by any means. That's the beauty of punting though !!!

He’s not the easiest to rate though imo
He wins his races with ease and pretty much on the bridle.He beat SM that way by 9 lengths!!
I am pretty confident he’s a mid 180’s horse at least,and I hope one day a horse comes along that enables him to prove that.
I doubt it will happen unfortunately.
As for regression……..he’s 7 years old and had 8 runs!!

Yes we don’t know for sure how he will be after the issues, but I would not put anyone off taking odds available right now if they are in a position to.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Colic and an infection were two entirely different things. And colic type symptoms aren't colic. Colic is colic, and even then, unless surgery is required (it wasn't), then it's highly unlikely it would have any impact on his ability. A severe infection is something that's treated by antibiotics, and they leave no mark on a horses ability either. The only thing that usually could is if either required surgical intervention. We know that there wasn't. And we know there were no physical issues.

Also, and to be fair to Henderson, he's very open about him. He is not going to come out and make the statements he has if things are otherwise or say something that's untrue. That's just asking for trouble. The racing world would be all over him like a rash. I'm more than happy to take this at face value. Particularly when coupled with my own understanding of it.

I understand why people would be cautious (not least because of being burnt last season), but for me it's a very easy decision. If he's fit and well he wins, and if there's an underlying and lasting condition he may not, but in balance of probability it's highly likely the former. Vet's would advise if it wasn't, and Hendo would either be silent or reluctantly passing on the bad news. There are far too many people involved in the Stable to hide an ongoing issue, or to relay it as something else. It would already be out there in the ether.

Add in that he's the best Champion Hurdler we've seen for a very long time, and at anywhere near his best he's well clear of the Mullins pair. It's not even close. Even if you allowed for some regression he would still win, So at 5/2 he just has to be a bet. If he were evens or shorter I wouldn't be in a rush, but the odds when weighed up against the probability of him retaining his ability are very much in my favour, therefore it's not something I need to think too hard about. Essentially he's easy to back at the price, and he's easy to include in a selection of permutated multiples.

The alternative of waiting is that at 80% fit he will win wherever he starts out, and he'll immediately be 8/11. I hate using them, but the words 'no-brainer' definitely spring to mind in this case.

Excellent post and much appreciate the details re his issues.

 

[Spectre]

A few have mentioned that since his CH win he's hit RPR's of 167 and 163 and that maybe he has reached the heights and has now regressed? His problems last season can surely not help so it remains to be seen whether he'll return anywhere near his very best. With the likes of Lossiemouth on a huge upward curve I don't think it's a no brainer bet by any means. That's the beauty of punting though !!!

Those RPR's are correct Lobos, but watching both races then the ease of victory takes away any concerns there may be. Perhaps worth watching them back to allay and concerns.

That said punting is very much an individual thing, and a I fully respect anyone taking a different view or approach to me.

For example, I remember being utterly convinced that Royale Pagaille would go down the novice route two or three year ago, and you were certain that he'd run in the Gold Cup. You were right on the money. My logic was clearly flawed :beaten:

And that's the point really. Ahead of time, we're just guessing. Just using as much information available as possible to make our best guess. In this instance we just differ on our interpretations, and therefore take the opposite view. It's good fun doing so though. It's why I enjoy this place so much. I like someone to change my mind, or add in information I hadn't considered. So much of what I do is based on trainer habits and information, and in this case I've just not heard anything yet that would make me think differently. If I did though I'd get out of my position, or at least reduce it. I'd rather that way round than not have the position at all though.

In this instance, we differ on our stance because our approaches are different. You only back horses that your confident in, and at prices you like. I want anything onside that I think can win, and I'll adjust my position(s) as the season goes on as new information becomes available. I'll also lock a profit in on any horse I can, as early as I can. With Constitution Hill, I'll probably be able to do that just on an entry. Even more so after a first win. And hopefully I can still have plenty running onto March with no risk. 5/2 now down to 4/11 on the day gives me loads of scope.

The problem is with the reverse approach, he'll be odds on before you have sufficient criteria to be able to back him, and essentially the Champion Hurdle either becomes a dead race, or your backing something each way hoping something happens to him. Either that or playing the without market in the lead up.

Anyway, all that set aside I love these debates we've had over the years. They're good fun :encouragement:

 

[somer1]

Just booked 10 nights in Corralejo Fuerteventura for the 2025 festival. Bring it on.

 

[BookieBasher]

R.I.P Istabraq :grumpy:

 

[Eggs]

R.I.P Istabraq :grumpy:

…32 years of age and a wonderful life.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

R.I.P Istabraq :grumpy:

Very sad day.
Lives to a wonderful age and was spoiled rotten from the day he retired, for me the best hurdler ever seen on a racecourse, there’ll never be another….