I think for a host of reasons last season was tougher than usual. After 3 or 4 seasons that were (relatively), predictable, it was hard work making a profit, and I understand why many didn't. Bookmakers are now tighter with prices, but predominantly it was because some of the leading lights either didn't make it to the Festival or underperformed. Even with a full book approach, which a few of us on here adopt, the profits were hardly spectacular, and it's easy to wonder whether all the effort was worth it.
I always think these things need perspective though, and these are the things that firstly spring to mind:
1. Winning and losing, by playing either antepost or during the Festival, should never have a fundamental financial impact. If it does it's better not to get involved at all. Losing, whilst not wanted, desired, or expected, should never be something that should affect either your financial or mental wellbeing. If it does it's time to reassess and have a rethink. Either by cutting stakes right back or by not gambling at all.
2. Learn and evolve. Keeping records is vital. If you don't then it's impossible to understand what went well and what didn't. By keeping records it becomes easier to cut out the mistakes. I suspect most people who made a loss last year could look back and adjust their strategy to one that if applied last year would at least have got to the break even line.
3. Define what your betting bank is for the season, and have the discipline (and strategy), not to go over it. Be certain that you can both afford it, and that you have sufficient bank in play not to be using money that should be allocated to other things. That bank should include for a contingency against events that you can't control such as injuries, incorrect targets, or multiple targets. I would recommend that you have a bank that is approximately a third bigger than you actually should need. The problem with not doing this can be two fold. Either, you start to use money that should be used in other parts of your life, or the limitation can mean that you are weakening your position and making it less likely to make a profit because of the bets you have to miss. Either way, it's not a good position to be in.
4. Be clear about your strategy. Are you trying to build a full book, selective books, trying to find the winner of every race, the winner of a selection of races, and are multiples part of your strategy, and if so how are you building them? Randomly or with a method?
5. Be clear about your staking plan. If in doubt either back to the same stake, or stake to achieve the same return. Don't work on gut feeling and vary your stake or target returns. As with all of the above, discipline is singularly the most important thing, and lack of it is always your biggest downfall.
6. Do everything you can to take any emotion out of what you do. All of the above help, but ultimately if losing makes you feel bad, or winning makes you gamble more, just knock it on the head. Antepost betting is not a good idea.
7. Learn what works best for you and your mentality. You can't be someone else, you have to be you, and therefore your approach has to suit the way you think. In it's simplest form some people will tell you that backing horses to win is the only way you can stay ahead. Others will say the same about backing each way. The truth is the right answer is the one that suits your approach and selection criteria. The one that helps you tp keep an even mind. And if you keep accurate records of your bets, the evidence will tell you your own answer anyway.
8. Keep learning. Being a generalist when gambling rarely works. You need to find your lane. But when you do you can't be complacent. If you don't change, improve, and evolve, everything around you does, and sooner or later the methods that made you a profit no longer do. I suspect this and a combination of the factors above are why so many people made a loss last season when they probably thought winning by playing the antepost Cheltenham markets is easy. We had three relatively straight forward seasons before last season, but there have been plenty of tougher seasons previously, and all of the disciplines above are how to stay ahead, or at least to limit losses to a minimum in a bad season.
9. It's allowed to be fun too. I recognise that I'm at the excessive end of the scale when it comes to winning, whereas some people just do it for fun. If the losses are acceptable, and it's provided the equivalent level of entertainment without causing any form of anxiety then that's fine. The last part of the sentence is the arbiter though.
10. There are so many really good people on here that are more than happy to talk about what they do. Don't be afraid to ask. I've been playing the antepost markets for 25 years or more, and others on here may be similar. My experience is my most valuable asset, along with all the disciplines I've mentioned above. I'm always happy to offer help and advice, and I know others are too. I am more careful about putting detail in the public domain now though. I know bookies (traders who are responsible for particular events), actively track what happens on here. Partially because they're lazy, and largely because we give them everything they need to look good in there jobs. I recently met a trader who introduced himself and actually admitted this was true!!!
Point 10 is such a large contributor to why winning was harder last season, and won't be getting any easier anytime soon. I had a good conversation with Stevo of Coral fame, who happily admitted that bookies hate us, and the days of generous antepost odds are over. There was a fundamental shift in odds post the 2023 Festival. The very early odds between Cheltenham and Punchestown were a significant percentage lower than they'd been previously, and horses towards the head of the market were priced nearer to what you'd expect on the day, and largely horses that were typically in the 25/1-50/1 bracket were half what they were previously. This year they're even tighter, and that very obviously means not acting accordingly will make it very hard to make a profit this year. The bookies now feed on the FOMO. We on here actively feed that, which is just bonkers. This place is the preeminent place to find everything you need for Cheltenham antepost, so we we shouldn't be surprised that discussing our strategies and horses that need considering is now actually working against us because the bookies react immediately. That leaves three choices. Just cut back and be significantly more selective, which is pretty much where Istabraq opened up this discussion. Adapt our methods to stay ahead, which is what I've done. And/or keep the good stuff to the members only section. There are no worng answers to any of those by the way. The only wrong answer is to do exactly the same as last season if you made a loss.
As I've said I'm going to be more cautious about what I post on the open forum now. I and others have put a lot of information in the public domain in the past that ultimately has been used to make it harder for us to win, so I will perhaps set up a diary which only members can see to discuss these things. What I will say though is that I feel as though I am in one of my best antepost positions this early for a few years. I still have some small gaps to infill, but I will do so over the next couple of quiet months, and I can then focus on adjusting my positions as the season unfolds, rather than chasing horses as prices plummet. Being in that position always makes it hard to balance books when you have too many sub double figure prices in play in your books. And it's why I will continue to be an advocate of playing antepost as early as possible. Having the whole summer to get my positions right before people drive the prices down is so valuable in the long run. Just to be clear though, I have my own personal set of rules, so it's not a case of carpet bombing bets across all the markets. All bets must meet the very strict criteria I use.
Anyway, I know it's a long post, and whilst there may be egg-sucking in there for some, I'd imagine it could be useful for anyone who had a harder time making a profit last season. At least I hope so, because playing antepost isn't as easy a it appears on the surface, and certainly not the way it appears from looking at peoples diaries over the last three or four years.
