General Chat

[Ice]

Paddy got a few any race prices up, not many and i wouldn't be rushing to have a look ! :welcoming:it's in specials if anyone is interested.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm amazed at how many people are backing things now :biggrin-new:


Should we all go back and look at profit / loss for the last few festivals and check what month we placed the most bets, which months have been most profitable and how many horror bets we'd actually end up with


Book building is different to normal punting and I appreciate that, but if I know I'll have the full book and wouldn't consider starting this early then I'm surprised at how many bets I'm seeing.... especially on things without 'certain targets'



Not calling anyone out in particular - I'm just a bit shocked .... I think it's a bit dangerous and the fact I'm having to resist FOMO means others may be, and I think generally bets being placed now will either be BAD, or not worth it this far out. Decs for Aintree would be more interesting for ante post the year after, and even that's flakey as shit

 

[Ballybeen]

Paddy got a few any race prices up, not many and i wouldn't be rushing to have a look ! :welcoming:it's in specials if anyone is interested.

Ballyburn 8/15 is ridiculous.

 

[Exar Essay]

I'm amazed at how many people are backing things now :biggrin-new:


Should we all go back and look at profit / loss for the last few festivals and check what month we placed the most bets, which months have been most profitable and how many horror bets we'd actually end up with


Book building is different to normal punting and I appreciate that, but if I know I'll have the full book and wouldn't consider starting this early then I'm surprised at how many bets I'm seeing.... especially on things without 'certain targets'



Not calling anyone out in particular - I'm just a bit shocked .... I think it's a bit dangerous and the fact I'm having to resist FOMO means others may be, and I think generally bets being placed now will either be BAD, or not worth it this far out. Decs for Aintree would be more interesting for ante post the year after, and even that's flakey as shit

I hear you Kev, but in my opinion (and this is a hugely debatable topic) prices are disappearing quicker than ever and some of the pricing has been very fair this time round.

I completely agree that it's worth waiting about those without certain targets and it's something I've actually managed this time around (so far nthego. I also agree that some are way to short already and 99% of horses will be beat at some point in the season - so most shorties will be longer at some point.

But I think there has been some very generous pricing this time round. Gerri Colombe at 25/1 and Fastorslow at 33/1 both of which looked far too big. Gaelic Warrior was 14/1 with PP for a while after the Arkle even after Willie had muttered the 2-miles might be his trip response. Arkle winners and QMCC winners .... I still think Constitution Hill is massive at 2/1 for having a runny nose. The Mares Hurdle market was all wrong with Lossie propping everyone up even those she's odds against to even end up there (although that is starting to correct now). Even some of the novice races had some exotic prices; Caldwell Potter (BANC) 33/1, Impaire Et Passe (Arkle or Turners) 20/1 ...

I think there's enough out there this time to spend on if you chose wisely. That's not to say the waiting game won't pay equally as well if not better as a few (particularly Dandrew) proved this year. :encouragement:

 

[Quevega]

Probably be wary of race changes also.
I doubt they'll do the radical changes required but we might lose one or two.

If I was in charge though we'd lose the Turners the Gallaghers, NH Chase, Ryanair, Mares hurdle and Mares Chase. And Kim Muir.

Probably be voided but would impact other races I reckon.
Imagine if the Turners is turned into a handicap for example, and they remove the NH chase - then the domino effect this would have would impact plenty of bets.

 

[DenmanSacre]

I'm amazed at how many people are backing things now :biggrin-new:


Should we all go back and look at profit / loss for the last few festivals and check what month we placed the most bets, which months have been most profitable and how many horror bets we'd actually end up with


Book building is different to normal punting and I appreciate that, but if I know I'll have the full book and wouldn't consider starting this early then I'm surprised at how many bets I'm seeing.... especially on things without 'certain targets'



Not calling anyone out in particular - I'm just a bit shocked .... I think it's a bit dangerous and the fact I'm having to resist FOMO means others may be, and I think generally bets being placed now will either be BAD, or not worth it this far out. Decs for Aintree would be more interesting for ante post the year after, and even that's flakey as shit

Interested to see how backable the winners of the non handicaps were in March of the previous year to see if making an early decision is beneficial.

2024

Supreme - Slade Steel - had won one bumper against 2 Mullins horses but I doubt anyone was picking him for the Supreme this time last year.

Arkle - Gaelic Warrior - no one would have picked the Arkle

Champion Hurdle - State Man - maybe backed if you're doing a book and looking at CH potentially going chasing.

Mares Hurdle - Lossiemouth - very pickable but doubt she was much of a price.

NHC - Corbett's Cross - not sure anyone was putting him up for it.

Gallaghers - Ballyburn - decent price this time last year and definitely pickable.

BANC - Fact to File - I think we thought FTF was going hurdling?

CC - Captain Guinness - maybe put up if going for the book approach but not sure anyone would have put him up as a serious chance.

Turners - Grey Dawning - no chance

Ryanair - Protektorat - not sure anyone would have put him forward

Stayers - Teahupoo - very pickable.

Mares Novice - Golden Ace - no chance

AB - Stellar Story - picked by Jackie.

Gold Cup - Galopin - reigning champ

Mares Chase - Limerick Lace - second in a graded novice against Journey for Me last March. Fair play if anyone picked her out.


If you picked one per race last March, you may have got some of them to be fair and been in profit.

2023

Supreme - Marine Nationale - no chance

Arkle - El Fabiolo - possible but we had CH, Jonbon Appreciate It, Dysart Dynamo

Champion Hurdle - Constitution Hill - very pickable

Mares - Honeysuckle - pretty sure everyone thought she was going Champion Hurdle again

NHC - GDM - very pickable if you risked him not winning the Irish National

Ballymore - Impaire et Passe - no chance

BANC - The Real Whacker - no chance

CC - Energumene - very backable

Turners - Stage Star - not sure anyone was picking him

Ryanair - Envoi Allen - not sure he was pickable

Stayers - Sire du Berlais - if you picked him, he would have been bigger on the day

Mares Novice - YWIW - not pickable

AB - Stay Away Fay - doubt he was in the betting after winning one PTP

GC - Galopin - very backable

Mares Chase - Impervious - not sure she would have been picked after going off 22/1 in the MNH and finishing 6th


I think picking horses for 2024 in 2023 was easier than the previous year based on numbers and likely prices available (mainly due to Teahupoo and Ballyburn being decent prices this time last year).

The question is how many are picking one per race and picking the right horse. Are the prices available just after the festival actually any better than waiting until October and ensuring they've got through the summer ok? I'm not too sure.

 

[Nwfb89]

Probably be wary of race changes also.
I doubt they'll do the radical changes required but we might lose one or two.

If I was in charge though we'd lose the Turners the Gallaghers, NH Chase, Ryanair, Mares hurdle and Mares Chase. And Kim Muir.

Probably be voided but would impact other races I reckon.
Imagine if the Turners is turned into a handicap for example, and they remove the NH chase - then the domino effect this would have would impact plenty of bets.

I agree about the nh chase going the brown advisory was terrible numbers wise this year wasn't it, if I was to get rid of a novice hurdle race I'd want the bartlett gone and then have the gallaghers moved to the new course

 

[Lobos]

I fell into the 10 year old trap in the Ryanair this year with Envoi Allen

And as much as I love Energumene I can’t back an 11 year old coming off an injury

Appreciate if he recovers fully and ends up here the 25s would be each way value

Was no trap with Envoi. Ran a superb race and would have been a very good winner again without Protektorat falling into the race late. Put all the others to bed very easily. Energumene is fairly lightly raced so not your usual milage for an 11 yo.

 

[Kevloaf]

I hear you Kev, but in my opinion (and this is a hugely debatable topic) prices are disappearing quicker than ever and some of the pricing has been very fair this time round.

I completely agree that it's worth waiting about those without certain targets and it's something I've actually managed this time around (so far nthego. I also agree that some are way to short already and 99% of horses will be beat at some point in the season - so most shorties will be longer at some point.

But I think there has been some very generous pricing this time round. Gerri Colombe at 25/1 and Fastorslow at 33/1 both of which looked far too big. Gaelic Warrior was 14/1 with PP for a while after the Arkle even after Willie had muttered the 2-miles might be his trip response. Arkle winners and QMCC winners .... I still think Constitution Hill is massive at 2/1 for having a runny nose. The Mares Hurdle market was all wrong with Lossie propping everyone up even those she's odds against to even end up there (although that is starting to correct now). Even some of the novice races had some exotic prices; Caldwell Potter (BANC) 33/1, Impaire Et Passe (Arkle or Turners) 20/1 ...

I think there's enough out there this time to spend on if you chose wisely. That's not to say the waiting game won't pay equally as well if not better as a few (particularly Dandrew) proved this year. :encouragement:

Lossiemouth isn't propping up any market, the percentages wouldn't back that up AND there is no way she's nailed on to skip the race. Respectfully I'd suggest you've not been following long enough if you think them dating she's going CH means she is. Only take 1 defeat and they'll change their tune.

Gaelic At 14s ... target not certain.

Win only punters won't care about Gerri or Fastorslow ... if you have 1 bet in the race. I could see me having them each way but that's just not something I'm worried about but we know we've got a dual champion and sexy novices


I honestly think people need to have a really, really hard think before placing a bet. More than ever.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Alot of hate for the NH Chase, but this race has existed for 160+ years and Browns Advisory 75+ years so I don't buy the view that the presence of both dilutes anything.
20 years ago both races had 20+ runners, for me it can only be the inception of the Turners that has diluted other races.
The current festival is a result of expansion, it's not getting any smaller and has every chance of getting bigger, so I think we need to live with what it looks like and accept the challenges it brings to us as punters...

 

[Quevega]

Hurdles
2m champion
3m champion stayer


Chase
2 mile champion (queen mother)
3m 2f champion stayer (gold cup)


Hurdles
2m novice champion (supreme)
3m novice champion stayer (Bartlett)


Chase
2m novice champion (arkle)
3m novice champion stayer (BANC)


Juveniles
2m Juvenile Champion (triumph)
2m Juvenile handicap hurdle (0-135) (boodles)


Handicaps For Non Novices -
2m Handicap hurdle champion (county)
2m 4f Handicap hurdle champion (Coral cup)
3m Handicap hurdle champion (Pertemps)


2m Handicap chase champion (grand annual)
2m 4f Handicap chase (0-150) (plate)
2m 4f Handicap Chase champion (150+) (Ryanair)
3m Handicap chase champion (ultima)


Novice Handicaps -
2m 4f Novice handicap chase (0-145)
2m 4f Novice handicap hurdle (0-145)


Novelty Races -
3m 6f Veterans NH chase (amateur riders)
3m 2f Hunters chase (amateur riders)
3m 6f Cross country Handicap (0-150)
2m Champion Bumper
2m Mares Novice hurdle

​We've touched on a lot of the changes we all might make and I've been on a similar page to Kevin Blake for a lot of these but the 24 races above would make the perfect four day festival for the modern age IMO.

The 2 divisions for the grade ones is all we need for the novices and older horses. It would encourage much more great match ups of the best horses each season.

The removal of the Mares hurdle and Mares chase from the festival itself and ideally moving them to the trials day meeting would encourage the best mares to come and have a go at the Championship races also.

The losing of the Turners and Gallaghers and converting them to Novice handicaps is an obvious boost for the 2 mile (supreme and arkle) and 3 mile divisions (Bartlett and BANC), and so would the removal of the NH chase for the BANC.

Strategic limiting of the novice handicaps to 0-145 would also make the ones rated higher have to run in one of the graded races.

The juvenile races need less tinkering but I'd limit the handicap to 0-135 so that the better ones fill up the field in the triumph again.

I think all these changes would lead to close to maximum fields or at least well into double figure fields for all the grade ones for sure.

If you banned novices from running in any of the other handicaps and kept them all then you'd struggle to fill them IMO, so the Kim Muir and martin pipe would have to go.

Just leaving the three handicaps for hurdlers and chasers at the three trips.

I think there would be sufficient horses on the chasers division to have 2 mid trip handicaps though and therefore the Ryanair would be ideal to be converted to a handicap for the classier horses rated over 150 and lets face it, no horse has won the plate off 150+ ever anyhow do that would become a 0-150.

The only new race would effectively be a replacement for the NH chase and be a veteran race for amateur riders instead, with a sort of legends feel to it. Must have been placed at the festival in their career or something like that.

Apart from the Gold cup distance I'd keep all the other races aside from the novelty ones to the specific trips of 2m - 2m 4f and 3m.

I also think each race should also have champion attached, even the handicaps.

i.e 2 mile champion handicap hurdler and so on.

The uniformity of most of the graded races and handicaps would help market the Festival for sure.

 

[DenmanSacre]

With the novice handicaps, you could have the rating lower than 145. Not that many novices are rated higher than 145 pre festival but the rest makes sense. Maybe make the plate 2m3 and the Ryanair 2m6. The Ryanair should also have an incentive where if you win certain races beforehand and win the Ryanair, you get a bonus. Also have a win and your in for the XC/Ultima and Grand National.

 

[Quevega]

With the novice handicaps, you could have the rating lower than 145. Not that many novices are rated higher than 145 pre festival but the rest makes sense. Maybe make the plate 2m3 and the Ryanair 2m6. The Ryanair should also have an incentive where if you win certain races beforehand and win the Ryanair, you get a bonus. Also have a win and your in for the XC/Ultima and Grand National.

Yeah - I'd be open to tinkering with the handicap weight bands. Although I think having it at 145 allows those trainers to run horses they think are suited to the mid trip.

But the system of races I'd vouch for is basically encouraging the faster horses to run against each other to see who's best and the stayers to see who stays the best. If you have a horse that's not Fast enough or stout enough then fuck off to handicapping. :highly_amused:

This sport is looking for the Best horses in the FOUR Big races (Male or Female) - Champion hurdlers, Champion Chasers, Staying hurdlers and Gold cup winners - so the festival should be geared towards this. IMO.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this sort of Festival would be much more attractive overall.
Less choice for the powerful trainers and funnelling the best vs the best as much as possible.
And 20 runner races for the most part.

 

[Exar Essay]

Lossiemouth isn't propping up any market, the percentages wouldn't back that up AND there is no way she's nailed on to skip the race. Respectfully I'd suggest you've not been following long enough if you think them dating she's going CH means she is. Only take 1 defeat and they'll change their tune.

Gaelic At 14s ... target not certain.

Win only punters won't care about Gerri or Fastorslow ... if you have 1 bet in the race. I could see me having them each way but that's just not something I'm worried about but we know we've got a dual champion and sexy novices


I honestly think people need to have a really, really hard think before placing a bet. More than ever.

I’m not a win only punter on selective targets so won’t claim to have skin in the game in that respect. But antepost markets have certainly shortened, and significantly so in the last 3 or 4 years, that’s plain. But is that a response to on the day markets changing significantly too? It’s a different (if related) point but bookies now need, or perhaps feel the need, to cover the likelihood of there being an odds on shot in a reasonable number of races.

I also feel, and it’s only a feeling, that some prices aren’t as restrictive this year as they were last year.

I agree Lossiemouth isn’t nailed on for the Mares but neither did I say she was. Far from it. I do think, and said, she’s odds against to end up there, whereby 5/2 takes up an unreasonable proportion of the market. I’d only have to have followed racing for 4 weeks to know that even certainties aren’t certain when it comes to race targets. I did also note that the Mares Hurdle market has shortened since initial offerings.

 

[Liammet]

Was no trap with Envoi. Ran a superb race and would have been a very good winner again without Protektorat falling into the race late. Put all the others to bed very easily. Energumene is fairly lightly raced so not your usual milage for an 11 yo.

The stat of a ten year old winning the Ryanair was against Envoi
was only done once before
Out of 27 races at this years festival only one ten year old won and no horse above 10 won

 

[robith]

I also think removing the middle distance races from Cheltenham makes them more special at Aintree. The relentless focus on Cheltenham as everything is eating the sport and when the festival starts to under deliver (like now) there's no strength in the foundations and the whole edifice comes down

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Alot of hate for the NH Chase, but this race has existed for 160+ years and Browns Advisory 75+ years so I don't buy the view that the presence of both dilutes anything.
20 years ago both races had 20+ runners, for me it can only be the inception of the Turners that has diluted other races.
The current festival is a result of expansion, it's not getting any smaller and has every chance of getting bigger, so I think we need to live with what it looks like and accept the challenges it brings to us as punters...

There’s no Novice Handicap Hurdles or Novice Handicap Chases, which make the Cheltenham Handicaps full of them, some skipping graded races to go for these Hcaps instead.

That needs to change for next season, in my view.

The Martin Pipe as it stands is just ripe for conversion immediately to a 0-145 Novice Hcap Hurdle over the 2M4F trip.

Its masquerading as one anyway, it’s so simple to just convert it to one…..

….and at the same time tweak the Coral Cup and use it as being for Handicap Hurdlers only, and ban Novices, as the Pipe is there for them.

No-one should be upset with that.

At a stroke it stops 20+ double handicap hurdle entries across the Coral Cup and the Pipe, as horses would then enter in one or the other.

The Turners should convert to a 0-145 Novice Handicap Chase, and stop the nonsense of having 4 Graded Novice Chases for horses to enter, as well as multiple handicap opportunities.

Keep the history of the BANC and Arkle intact, and let the Turners go to Aintree, 4 weeks later.

Aintree needs its Grade 1 programme clipping too, so have one Grade 1 Novice Chase over 2M4F “The Turners” and make it the centrepiece Novice Chase at the meeting.

The NHC needs reimagining, yet again, this happens every few years now.

Knocking it down to 3M6F and making jockeys have to be more experienced to ride in it was a good idea.

But let’s face it, as a Grade 2 Novice Chase, it’s just a poor imitation of a longer BANC.
It’s messing up the race planning and marketing of the BANC as a Championship event, and running plans across both those races and also the Turners is a mess too.

The NHC either needs downgrading again, or moved away from being a BANC substitute for Novice Chasers.

Maybe from the Handicap Early Entry stage onwards, horses with Festival entries should only be allowed a maximum of two Festival entries from those 3 weeks out, across Graded and Hcap races.

Finally the Supreme, Gallagher, Bartlett has some of the same issues as the Novice Chases, with multiple entries, lack of depth at 2M and 2M5F and connections dodging opponents.

Maybe a two entry max rule would help, and not need changes to the 3 Grade 1 Novice Hurdles - but if it doesn’t we could go to a 2M Supreme and a 2M5F or 2M6F Gallagher, and move the Bartlett out, in some way (Aintree?)

After those moves we should have clearer paths to knowing whose running where, earlier, and cater for the dwindling population of Grade 1 horses by funnelling them to fewer targets, to ensure better filling of fields for races.

Aintree needs reimagining on its number and type of Grade 1s too, or you just shift the field size, competitive issues over to them instead.

It can’t be beyond the wit of the BHA and the Jockey Club to be able to sort this out, and rid itself of too many odds on favs in small field races, on prestige race days.

The 1000 Guineas, 2000 Guineas, Oaks and Derby don’t have 5 and 6 runner fields.

NH racing really needs to sort its Grade 1 race programme out, and its use of Handicaps and Novice races at their Aintree and Cheltenham Festivals, and get more competitive racing back, and more levy from betting into bigger field races.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Plenty of well considered changes from Saxon Warrior and Quevega and whilst all have validity there are too many, the BHA aren't capable of seeing the issues that have been created from the money grab of the extended 4 day festival, the 5 day extension will be kicking around again soon enough too so expect further dilution.

Novices in handicaps has been a gripe of mine for years, I think addressing this will resolve many of the field size issues in a single swoop and I have small hope this might be considered.
Personally I'd throw the Mares programme to a finals days somewhere, Sandown could easily extend their finale to 2 days (move the flat to Thursday) and have a Fri/Sat NH end of season mini festival.

But radical change ain't happening however broken we believe things currently are...

 

[Eggs]

Ballyburn 8/15 is ridiculous.

….6/4 in Sky a/r market.

 

[Quevega]

I also think removing the middle distance races from Cheltenham makes them more special at Aintree. The relentless focus on Cheltenham as everything is eating the sport and when the festival starts to under deliver (like now) there's no strength in the foundations and the whole edifice comes down

Absolutely aintree could cater for grade ones at all the mid trips. This would entice winners of the 2m and 3m races to race against each other also.

i Wouldn’t be against the novice races at the festival being 2m and 2m 6f either.