General Chat

[Deleted member 4957]

And therein lies the problem with the race, if there are any near 160 horses they would be competitive in the Ryanair getting 7lb.
The winner will likely be a horse who shouldn't be running there...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think many are missing the other doubts surrounding Maskada, namely the trip and the ground.

Her form over 2m4f+ is 3-F-0. The 3rd was behind Pink Legend at Huntingdon, she was 11 1/2 lengths behind her that day, Pink Legend went on to finish 2nd to Elimay in the Mares Chase, but even so, Maskada was far enough behind her previously. She was with Stuart Edmunds at this point. Since she's joined Henry she fell, when staying on, at Fairyhouse in a handicap chase, but she was rated 131 racing against mostly 120 animals that day, she should have been winning, IMO. She then raced at Galway over 2m5f, the run before her Grand Annual win over 2m, she finished 11th of 23, some 20 lengths behind The Goffer, off a rating of 141. Her 2m form far exceeds are form over further.

I wouldn't pigeon hole her to just soft or worse ground, but her performances generally lean towards her having a liking for this type of ground over better ground, again, since she's been with Henry she's won two races, one was on soft, one was on heavy, the other three she's lost in have had good or yielding in the description. I know some people won't care too much about ground conditions, but for me it's no coincidence.

I'd not be surprised if she's campaigned to get her mark back down again now, tbh, and she's not one that interests me at this moment in time for the Mares Chase.

 

[Lobos]

Agree COD . Maybe that's why they've mentioned the Hilly Way as potentially her next target. If she doesn't get home today or indeed if she just gets beat in a race she should really be winning based on OR's then they'll go down the 2m route for the rest of the season.

 

[Imperial Commander]

Not sure she needs to improve by 7-8lbs on her Festival run.

Allegorie De Vassy and Maskada were both given the same 155rpr for their respective runs last March.

If Maskada could reproduce that form in the Mares Chase that could be enough.

If she could find another 3-5lbs that would make her very hard to beat.

Of course the same applies to ADV and Dinoblue (154rpr at Fez).

Those two have the advantage of being a year younger and likely to benefit more from extra experience.

But only one of the 3 is 25-1.

Not any more - cut to 16-1!

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I think many are missing the other doubts surrounding Maskada, namely the trip and the ground.

Her form over 2m4f+ is 3-F-0. The 3rd was behind Pink Legend at Huntingdon, she was 11 1/2 lengths behind her that day, Pink Legend went on to finish 2nd to Elimay in the Mares Chase, but even so, Maskada was far enough behind her previously. She was with Stuart Edmunds at this point. Since she's joined Henry she fell, when staying on, at Fairyhouse in a handicap chase, but she was rated 131 racing against mostly 120 animals that day, she should have been winning, IMO. She then raced at Galway over 2m5f, the run before her Grand Annual win over 2m, she finished 11th of 23, some 20 lengths behind The Goffer, off a rating of 141. Her 2m form far exceeds are form over further.

I wouldn't pigeon hole her to just soft or worse ground, but her performances generally lean towards her having a liking for this type of ground over better ground, again, since she's been with Henry she's won two races, one was on soft, one was on heavy, the other three she's lost in have had good or yielding in the description. I know some people won't care too much about ground conditions, but for me it's no coincidence.

I'd not be surprised if she's campaigned to get her mark back down again now, tbh, and she's not one that interests me at this moment in time for the Mares Chase.

She's won at limerick over 2m3 1/2f on heavy

Stamina wont be the issue

 

[ComplyOrDie]

She's won at limerick over 2m3 1/2f on heavy

Stamina wont be the issue

Off 132, beating what?

Big difference to dining at the top level, IMO.

Time will tell, with what happens today, but even so, she's getting lumps from ADV today, which won't be the case at Cheltenham, should they meet.

It may just be a ground thing with her, she is by Masked Marvel, after all, the same sire as Teahupoo who needs softened ground.

 

[Lobos]

Getting all that weight she should be a clear fav today and should win. Intriguing little race.

 

[Runragged]

I think many are missing the other doubts surrounding Maskada, namely the trip and the ground.

Her form over 2m4f+ is 3-F-0. The 3rd was behind Pink Legend at Huntingdon, she was 11 1/2 lengths behind her that day, Pink Legend went on to finish 2nd to Elimay in the Mares Chase, but even so, Maskada was far enough behind her previously. She was with Stuart Edmunds at this point. Since she's joined Henry she fell, when staying on, at Fairyhouse in a handicap chase, but she was rated 131 racing against mostly 120 animals that day, she should have been winning, IMO. She then raced at Galway over 2m5f, the run before her Grand Annual win over 2m, she finished 11th of 23, some 20 lengths behind The Goffer, off a rating of 141. Her 2m form far exceeds are form over further.

I wouldn't pigeon hole her to just soft or worse ground, but her performances generally lean towards her having a liking for this type of ground over better ground, again, since she's been with Henry she's won two races, one was on soft, one was on heavy, the other three she's lost in have had good or yielding in the description. I know some people won't care too much about ground conditions, but for me it's no coincidence.

I'd not be surprised if she's campaigned to get her mark back down again now, tbh, and she's not one that interests me at this moment in time for the Mares Chase.

You may well be right, this is why racing is a game of opinions. Giving mine, the trip is a question, which could well be answered somewhat today. I do think you can ignore her early form, she has improved 20lb since the switch of yards. She was still in contention when falling at Fairyhouse on seasonal debut last year at 2m 4f whilst that Leopardstown run was fully a stone behind anything she did last year. Something couldn't of been right there. She certainly wasn't stopping at the line in the Grand Annual anyway.

Certainly don't see ground being an issue, not unless it came up good or faster. Referring to her races for HDB then one she fell when in contention, one was a grade 1 novice when beat by Blue Lord (And wasn't disgraced considering first start for the yard) and the other was the Leopardstown race when something amiss. If you look at her form prior to the yard switch then her top three RPRs were on good to soft.

Whether she has the class to win a mares chase is more debatable. If it's a Colreevy type of year then she won with an RPR of 161 so would need considerable improvement. However, Elimay won with an RPR of just 146. Last year it took a 159 from Impervious to win. Interestingly the 159 with a 7lb allowance would of put her bang there in the Ryanair with Envoi Allen winning with a 167 and Shishkin 2nd on 166. Obviously it doesn't work out like that but is still a comparison to note.

My biggest concern is whether HDB will run her in the Mares Chase? She is a winner over course and distance when it comes to the Champion Chase and on RPR's again her win in the Grand Annual would have been good enough for a third in the CC last season (Retrospectively once more). He had the option of running PTKO in the Mares Chase when she had been out of form all season but stuck with the grade 1 Champion Chase. He has already stated that he plans to run Maskada in the Hilly Way against the boys and if that goes well then she could go the CC route. If not but she stays well today what stops her from going Ryanair instead? Unlike many trainers HDB will run his mares with the allowance and connections may prefer a place in a grade 1 chase as opposed to a chance of winning the grade 2 Mares Chase. Finally if all else fails this season then she could fall back into the Grand Annual off a few pounds higher than last year. All this needs to be factored into the price when considering her. For me she may of been some interest in a TWAR market, but even then I would be wanting at least 16/1 allowing for the Champion Chase angle and what price she would be to win, even allowing for some further improvement.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

My biggest concern is whether HDB will run her in the Mares Chase? She is a winner over course and distance when it comes to the Champion Chase and on RPR's again her win in the Grand Annual would have been good enough for a third in the CC last season (Retrospectively once more).

Thanks for the well thought out response, and to be honest I hadn't even considered her for the Champion Chase, but it is a race I'd much prefer to back her for as a place prospect than the Mares Chase, which would seem odd given the higher level of opposition, but the trip thing for me, is still a concern so 2m would be much more like it, IMO. Again though, I do think she needs her ground as well, so may be one for nearer the time or even on the day provided it comes up soft enough.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Off 132, beating what?

Big difference to dining at the top level, IMO.

Time will tell, with what happens today, but even so, she's getting lumps from ADV today, which won't be the case at Cheltenham, should they meet.

It may just be a ground thing with her, she is by Masked Marvel, after all, the same sire as Teahupoo who needs softened ground.

She was 25/1

A no brainer bet at the prices

Don't think anyone is claiming she's a cert

I see Willie is running Brandy love right handed again :boxing:

Good luck Paul townend

 

[jack1092]

Off 132, beating what?

Big difference to dining at the top level, IMO.

Time will tell, with what happens today, but even so, she's getting lumps from ADV today, which won't be the case at Cheltenham, should they meet.

It may just be a ground thing with her, she is by Masked Marvel, after all, the same sire as Teahupoo who needs softened ground.

Beating what?

Rebel Gold's now 145 having beaten Dunvegan and finished 5th to Final Orders. Then beaten Coeur Sublime in a g3?

Maskada gave him weight that day too, and that's over 2m3 1/2 on Limerick heavy.

So yeah, off 132, but Rebel Gold hasn't exactly let the form down since......

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Beating what?

Rebel Gold's now 145 having beaten Dunvegan and finished 5th to Final Orders. Then beaten Coeur Sublime in a g3?

Maskada gave him weight that day too, and that's over 2m3 1/2 on Limerick heavy.

So yeah, off 132, but Rebel Gold hasn't exactly let the form down since......

I had noted Rebel Gold, but for me he's another serial 2 miler, and the fact them two finished 1-2 that day says more to me about that particular race, in my opinion, of course.

Appreciate the Limerick heavy ground but I think that's her preferred ground anyway.

It will be interesting to see how today goes, it should give us more of an idea, but I genuinely think if Maskada turns up at the festival again it will be over 2m, whichever race that is in.

 

[Birds Nest]

Hoping for a little help if anyone is so kind, i came across a you tube video today ,from 3 days ago , of noel george talking about il est francais, now its in french and ive tried various google translates and subtitles, all to no avail, im sure he mentions the king george for him but i believe Noels french is a bit broken for apps to follow.9

 

[Lobos]

Can't speak a word of French but there's no chance he goes KG this year. Future maybe or possibly KG meeting?? Kauto Star??

 

[riccirich]

Could have possibly said the King George meeting? For the kauto star novices chase maybe

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Anyone know about Love Envoi?

is she injured? If so, when due back?

and has Harry Fry confirmed she stays hurdling?

 

[Lobos]

Anyone know about Love Envoi?

is she injured? If so, when due back?

and has Harry Fry confirmed she stays hurdling?

Mares Hurdle the target again.

Fully recovered now.

Back in last month after pre season with Noel.

Likely to have comeback race in New year but given entry in Fighting Fifth so she must be showing good signs.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Liammet]

I know it is early days but if anyone is looking to take a price for the hunters chase or add to their book Vaucelet, Ferns Lock and The Bosses Oscar entered in a p2p at Dromahane this weekend

 

[Lobos]

Big season for Ferns Lock.

 

[Kevloaf]

I know it is early days but if anyone is looking to take a price for the hunters chase or add to their book Vaucelet, Ferns Lock and The Bosses Oscar entered in a p2p at Dromahane this weekend

Which way should we be leaning :culpability: