General Chat

[HesTheOne]

I see all bids for Impaire Et Pass? were matched on the Churdle market on BFX today up to 9.4. And a few days ago ?600 was placed on IEP for the Turners down to 5.5. Likely means nothing but thought it interesting enough to report.

‘Novice exchange query’ Is there a reason why the graph shows the price being pushed out around the time of that 600 value?

Total Betfair noob but I’d expect a bet like that to tighten the price not make it be pushed out

 

[Exar Essay]

‘Novice exchange query’ Is there a reason why the graph shows the price being pushed out around the time of that 600 value?

Total Betfair noob but I’d expect a bet like that to tighten the price not make it be pushed out

It's actually that the graph isn't accurate enough to truly show this. The bid actually aligns with the contracting price. The subsequent rise was caused by the pennies placed afterwards. I was trying to offload some at 5.8-6.0 and was matched by the big bid so remember well the direction of price action.

 

[Exar Essay]

What you think so far? Had a good read through there today nothing ground breaking on 1st inspection.. He must be short of connections to Cloustton :glee: they don't really feature apart from what's obviously in public domain.

Will sit down properly with it tonight again - likely missed some 2nd reading nuggets

I always see JTF as more of Paul's opinion of horses; often very well informed but an opinion nonetheless. Also quite heavily British biased in respect of contributors. He tends to tour the best yards tin the UK, but I don't think he really ventures to Irish yards. So his info is a little lacking there; at least that's how I tend to find. I rate his opinion on British horses highly.

OJA tends to have more information in respect of targets and uncovering new purchases etc.

 

[Benjy23]

Think you can read that IEP Turners exchange move either way to be honest. Someone has come on with a decent bet but equally someone was willing to lay it to a reasonable liability compared to the rest of the market!

The Champion Hurdle drift supports the theory he's going Turners like. And Constitution Hill staying hurdling will probably push some over fences, so it does make sense. But in terms of pure exchange move on the Turners market it's worth pointing out the obvious maybe.

 

[darlojim]

Im sure our man Billy would be coming on if he heard a recent update as to regards a change! I'd say hes still heading champ hdle lads

 

[Deleted member 4957]

For info, 600 traded equals 300 laid and 300 backed.
Total staked on IEP for Turners is 2,250, which os 1,125 backed…

 

[Benjy23]

For info, 600 traded equals 300 laid and 300 backed.
Total staked on IEP for Turners is 2,250, which os 1,125 backed…

That's first point is not possible unless it's an even money shot? I don't think that's accurate but I'll advance when the kids are asleep :emmersed:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

That's first point is not possible unless it's an even money shot? I don't think that's accurate but I'll advance when the kids are asleep :emmersed:

The total traded is sterling value regardless of price.
300 backed at 6/1 and 300 laid at 6/1 is still 600 traded, the potential gain/loss is irrelevant.
At least that’s how i have always understood it, happy to educated if that’s not the case…

 

[Benjy23]

The total traded is sterling value regardless of price.
300 backed at 6/1 and 300 laid at 6/1 is still 600 traded, the potential gain/loss is irrelevant.
At least that’s how i have always understood it, happy to educated if that’s not the case…

IMO... (Disclaimer)

You're correct that 600 traded is representative of a 300 back bet. The traded values and stakes are always represented by 'backs'. My point was that, using 6/1 as the price, whoever is on the lay side of that has tied up 1.8k. Which given the relative low values being traded at the moment is a fairly substantial lay compared to others available in that market. I appreciate it's potentially more than one person but the point remains the same regarding comparisons with the rest of the values available in the market.

They'd probably be more likely to fall asleep if I talked to them about the exchange actually.
​​​​

 

[Exar Essay]

An easy and definitive example. I hope you can excuse use of values here but easier to explain than using points:

There is a horse which had no bets on at all. I have just bet 5 pounds on said horse at 85.0. The ‘total matched on this selection’ is now 10 pound.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

IMO... (Disclaimer)

You're correct that 600 traded is representative of a 300 back bet. The traded values and stakes are always represented by 'backs'. My point was that, using 6/1 as the price, whoever is on the lay side of that has tied up 1.8k. Which given the relative low values being traded at the moment is a fairly substantial lay compared to others available in that market. I appreciate it's potentially more than one person but the point remains the same regarding comparisons with the rest of the values available in the market.

All understood, but I’ve never believed the liability has ever had any impact on the total traded amount figure.
it may well be I’m wrong.
Whenever I’ve played a quiet market and looked at the traded numbers (whether a back or a lay) it has generally been consistent with my understanding.
It’s probably buried somewhere in their Q&A stuff….

 

[Deleted member 4957]

An easy and definitive example. I hope you can excuse use of values here but easier to explain than using points:

There is a horse which had no bets on at all. I have just bet 5 pounds on said horse at 85.0. The ‘total matched on this selection’ is now 10 pound.

That would be my understanding EE…

 

[Exar Essay]

That would be my understanding EE…

Your understanding is certainly correct. I didn’t make it clear, but the above is a real world example, not me creating a hypothetical to assist.

 

[Benjy23]

Yea, agreed the liability isn't represented in their values and graphs but the liability is real was my original point. I wasn't using traded values to make my argument.

There's a person (or people) out there who would be 1.8k down if IEP won the Turners, as of that one bet
​​​​

Don't need to see it on a graph to know that's true right?

For people not familiar with using the exchange I think it's better to explain what's really happening rather than what they can see for themselves.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I see all bids for Impaire Et Pass? were matched on the Churdle market on BFX today up to 9.4. And a few days ago ?600 was placed on IEP for the Turners down to 5.5. Likely means nothing but thought it interesting enough to report.

Hopefully Willie sees sense on this one

Has no chance against constitution hill but has a huge chance in the turner's and looks made for a fence

If he can jump fluently and gets there fit may as well chalk a win up for mullins

Win the turner's then try 3 miles at punchestown

If he stays 3 miles could be a gold cup contender, if he doesn't mop up the durkan and Ryanair

Simples

 

[Guinness Village]

Like Groundhog Day

 

[Lobos]

Hopefully Willie sees sense on this one

Has no chance against constitution hill but has a huge chance in the turner's and looks made for a fence

If he can jump fluently and gets there fit may as well chalk a win up for mullins

Win the turner's then try 3 miles at punchestown

If he stays 3 miles could be a gold cup contender, if he doesn't mop up the durkan and Ryanair

Simples

Definitely makes sense. And he'd walk the Turners.

 

[Ice]

Definitely makes sense. And he'd walk the Turners.

Here's hoping.

 

[Lobos]

Here's hoping.

Mullins Stable Tour will be well worth waiting for

 

[Kautostar]

Mullins Stable Tour will be well worth waiting for

It’s Mullins we’ll still be non the wiser after reading it!