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Jamie Snowden must surely be looking at schooling You Wear It Well over fences again this coming week with a good rethink on the cards after the Impervious news today. I know what I’d do if I was in his boots!
 
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General take on the Impervious news seems to be that it opens up the Mares Chase a bit… my initial thoughts were on a different line - while obviously the set-back isn’t ideal, I’d think it would mean it’s much more likely now that she returns to defend her title in that race if back and ready by March, rather than try to take on the boys in the Ryanair (which is where I was originally thinking she might target)?
 
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Ballyfitz said:
General take on the Impervious news seems to be that it opens up the Mares Chase a bit… my initial thoughts were on a different line - while obviously the set-back isn’t ideal, I’d think it would mean it’s much more likely now that she returns to defend her title in that race if back and ready by March, rather than try to take on the boys in the Ryanair (which is where I was originally thinking she might target)?
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That was my thinking too. Although my overall thinking was to ignore her altogether now til given a very strong reason not to. Out til at least after Christmas is just a holding statement to 'confirm' she'll miss those big race days. They don't know how bad it is yet etc... feel like that sort of thing has much more of a habit of meaning that's it for the season than it does a good news story, for Cheltenham specific purposes.
 
Atlantic Viking said:
That was my thinking too. Although my overall thinking was to ignore her altogether now til given a very strong reason not to. Out til at least after Christmas is just a holding statement to 'confirm' she'll miss those big race days. They don't know how bad it is yet etc... feel like that sort of thing has much more of a habit of meaning that's it for the season than it does a good news story, for Cheltenham specific purposes.
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100% my thinking. If she does return this season more likely to go Mares Chase than Ryanair but even more likely now is she just misses Cheltenham. Not worth taking the risk at this point in time.
 
BuckingThe Trend said:
100% my thinking. If she does return this season more likely to go Mares Chase than Ryanair but even more likely now is she just misses Cheltenham. Not worth taking the risk at this point in time.
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Have taken the decision to CashOut all bets with Impervious in Ryanair and replaced with Envoi Allen. Got full return on amount bet but lost a few points in new bets. Feel it is the right option at this point in time with the new news.
 
Ballyfitz said:
General take on the Impervious news seems to be that it opens up the Mares Chase a bit… my initial thoughts were on a different line - while obviously the set-back isn’t ideal, I’d think it would mean it’s much more likely now that she returns to defend her title in that race if back and ready by March, rather than try to take on the boys in the Ryanair (which is where I was originally thinking she might target)?
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I’d say your bang on regarding her target now. Very hard to see anything but given the setback. Which is a shame as like you say they may have had eyes set elsewhere. I was even half thinking a Gold Cup bid wasn’t the wildest claim.

That said, it’s far from ideal (obviously!) and they’ll likely need everything to go right when she is back. Given she’s one of the shortest priced horses in the markets, taking a chance on some horses behind her in the market makes sense.

In her favour though, is the Mares Chase program. And if I were connections, I’d have the listed Mares Chase as Naas around the 11th Feb as the perfect target for her pre festival. Which could fit In perfectly before the Mares Chase at the festival a month later
 
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Step forward Hauturiere. The new Queen of The Mares Chase.
 
SeanRock said:
Jamie Snowden must surely be looking at schooling You Wear It Well over fences again this coming week with a good rethink on the cards after the Impervious news today. I know what I’d do if I was in his boots!
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Connections have made the decision to go down the Mares Hurdle route as Honeysuckle is no longer an obstacle. Nothing has changed in that sense. The Mares Hurdle is clearly the more prestigious race to have on her CV.
 
Quick question regarding the rpr's on the racing post website, which one do people focus on more, the one on the racecard which is usually higher, or the one when you actually click into the horses profile and it says "best rpr" which is usually lower than the one on the racecard. Not sure what the difference is between them but basically just wondering which is the more reliable one.
 
riccirich said:
Quick question regarding the rpr's on the racing post website, which one do people focus on more, the one on the racecard which is usually higher, or the one when you actually click into the horses profile and it says "best rpr" which is usually lower than the one on the racecard. Not sure what the difference is between them but basically just wondering which is the more reliable one.
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The one on the race card is adjusted for today's conditions (not sure how), the one on their form is their specific performance in that race. I always use the form rpr and make adjustments myself (e.g. Horse 1 is likely to run to approx 145 based on previous form but has to give horse 2 7lbs. Horse 2 is likely to run to around 142 so should beat him as 142+7=149). It rarely works out that way but it's fricking cool when it does!

Does that make sense? It does to me...
 
riccirich said:
Quick question regarding the rpr's on the racing post website, which one do people focus on more, the one on the racecard which is usually higher, or the one when you actually click into the horses profile and it says "best rpr" which is usually lower than the one on the racecard. Not sure what the difference is between them but basically just wondering which is the more reliable one.
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Both at different times riccirich

The one on the race day racecard is an assessment of that race, on a horse by horse, weights taken into account basis.
So is good for that race in particular.

My main focus from antepost racing, and comparing horses for this seasons Festival, and against prior Fesival ratings, etc, is based on the master rating under the horses profile.

Id also take into account

* the distance that the top rating was taken into account
* when it was produced (this season or last season - Giving more credit to he most recent ratings)
* the ground the ratings were produced on
* the trip the ratings were produced on
etc….

Ive set up the RPR ratings Diary on the Diary section to give FJ an idea of the last 10 years Graded races at Cheltenham and what ratings horses produced through the whole season on their way to lining up in each of the Graded races, and then what was produced to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in each race.

That way when this season kicks off I can quickly assess how the rating a horse produced each run compares to previous races at Grade 1 and 2 at Cheltenham,

Ive recorded

* seasonal debut ratings
* 2nd race of the Season ratings
* all seasons ratings
* final best rating when lining up at Cheltenham

for all horses that finished 1st 2nd and 3rd in those Cheltenham Festival races

This should give a very good insight when following horses through this season, and as I update the best current in-season RPRs being produced for each race, and how they compare directly to past winners of the races
 
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Opened a Betfred account today for the first time. What are they like to use?
 
Yeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!

Gowan Girlfriend!!!!
 
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