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General Chat

Quevega said:
Rarely bet on football even though I watch every game that's broadcast near enough.

But I was thinking about edge's in football betting in this early season and with them effectively playing around 10% more actual game time, ball in play, and the new discipline rules, this means goals and bookings should increase on average, particularly with any fatigue factor also.

Wouldn't be sure which markets would be best to follow myself, but anything around total goals/cards or over and under markets would be worth analysing just in case the bookies have not fully factored it just yet, or got the balance right.
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I might try laying teams that are winning by 1 goal at the 80 minute mark given there's probably 15-20 mins left not 10

Can feel a small stakes experiment in the offing

It's just whether the markets have taken it into account or not yet
 
Exar Essay said:
At the risk of hyping one up, does anyone know where Jeriko Du Reponet ended up? I'd heard a rumour but seen nothing reliable. He was my pick of the 4yo's.
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…I ‘think’ he’s the subject of discussion in the Members forum (under the radar thread), maybe with Henderson.
 
Does anyone have any thoughts on Landrake for Gordon Elliott?

I've backed him with a couple of freebies for the Turners at 50/1.

He's been a work in progress, and seemingly took a while to get going, but he only finished 4 lengths behind Good Land in his final bumper start before taking really well to hurdles, beating Corbetts Cross by 1 3/4 lengths, albeit over 2m3 1/2f, which no doubt suited Landrake better than it did Corbetts Cross, but still a solid result given how that one went through the rest of the season. Landrake then followed that up with a comfortable success at Fairyhouse over 2m4f, although the opposition wasn't up to much. He then went to Navan where travelling well before falling 3 out, and he finished off his season over a stamina sapping 2m6f on Heavy ground at Navan, finishing half a length down to Senior Chief.

He's by Martaline, and out of a Kayf Tara dam, so I expect chasing to be right up his street.

He is only rated 135 over hurdles, so in true Gordon style, he could well be one campaigned at a handicap, but at this stage I'd hope he'd be given every chance to improve over a fence to see where his ceiling is at.

Gordon also has Irish Point, who is rated plenty higher over hurdles than Landrake, but then again I don't think Gordon has usually backed down from running more than one in a race, so probably a moot point.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on Landrake for Gordon Elliott?

I've backed him with a couple of freebies for the Turners at 50/1.

He's been a work in progress, and seemingly took a while to get going, but he only finished 4 lengths behind Good Land in his final bumper start before taking really well to hurdles, beating Corbetts Cross by 1 3/4 lengths, albeit over 2m3 1/2f, which no doubt suited Landrake better than it did Corbetts Cross, but still a solid result given how that one went through the rest of the season. Landrake then followed that up with a comfortable success at Fairyhouse over 2m4f, although the opposition wasn't up to much. He then went to Navan where travelling well before falling 3 out, and he finished off his season over a stamina sapping 2m6f on Heavy ground at Navan, finishing half a length down to Senior Chief.

He's by Martaline, and out of a Kayf Tara dam, so I expect chasing to be right up his street.

He is only rated 135 over hurdles, so in true Gordon style, he could well be one campaigned at a handicap, but at this stage I'd hope he'd be given every chance to improve over a fence to see where his ceiling is at.

Gordon also has Irish Point, who is rated plenty higher over hurdles than Landrake, but then again I don't think Gordon has usually backed down from running more than one in a race, so probably a moot point.
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I'd say handicaps would be most likely for next season although not sure what discipline. If I recall correctly he was fancied by some for the MP race. Looks one for those intermediate trips but his page suggests he could get further too.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on Landrake for Gordon Elliott?

I've backed him with a couple of freebies for the Turners at 50/1.

He's been a work in progress, and seemingly took a while to get going, but he only finished 4 lengths behind Good Land in his final bumper start before taking really well to hurdles, beating Corbetts Cross by 1 3/4 lengths, albeit over 2m3 1/2f, which no doubt suited Landrake better than it did Corbetts Cross, but still a solid result given how that one went through the rest of the season. Landrake then followed that up with a comfortable success at Fairyhouse over 2m4f, although the opposition wasn't up to much. He then went to Navan where travelling well before falling 3 out, and he finished off his season over a stamina sapping 2m6f on Heavy ground at Navan, finishing half a length down to Senior Chief.

He's by Martaline, and out of a Kayf Tara dam, so I expect chasing to be right up his street.

He is only rated 135 over hurdles, so in true Gordon style, he could well be one campaigned at a handicap, but at this stage I'd hope he'd be given every chance to improve over a fence to see where his ceiling is at.

Gordon also has Irish Point, who is rated plenty higher over hurdles than Landrake, but then again I don't think Gordon has usually backed down from running more than one in a race, so probably a moot point.
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I had him down as an NHC possible with a similar profile to Chemical Energy, but he hasn't had a chase run this summer so have less confidence in that possibility now given the typical profile of an NHC horse and the other possibles that have run
 
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As we're talking NHC and Gordy horses, has Codd retired or something? Not seen him ride for a good while now, mainly been swan on the bumper horses
 
Nicky Henderson on Willmount...

“He’s only just arrived, he’s a nice horse,” said Henderson.
“He will certainly be going straight over hurdles. He’s a very nice horse actually and he looked a good horse for Neil last year. He looks very well.

“He did look a bit special, and interestingly we all knew he looked quite good because I bought his sister at the Derby Sale in Ireland over the summer hoping he might turn out to be a good horse.”
 
Odin said:
I had him down as an NHC possible with a similar profile to Chemical Energy, but he hasn't had a chase run this summer so have less confidence in that possibility now given the typical profile of an NHC horse and the other possibles that have run
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Same. Remember speaking with chair of the Landrake Fan Club Dandrew99 at length about this last year. Was hoping he'd be the NHC horse, but as you say Odin, looks unlikely if he's not been out already.

On breeding, he should be comfortable over the mid trip or longer trip.
 
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Corbetts Cross - would typically be one I’m interested in for the BANC but I just can’t get past his size/scope. The only time I’ve seen him in the flesh was on his way to the start in the Bartlett and to my eye he looked on the small size. Will be happy to leave him for now as in the back of my mind I have a niggling feeling he could be one of those that end up in the stayers hurdle.

Does anyone else share the same thoughts or am I way off the mark?
 
Interesting thoughts PP. I doubt many others of us on here, if any, think about the size of the horse before making a bet. Be good to hear the thoughts of other FJ's who may already have dived in. Of course there are plenty of small ones that have performed at the top level but normally a very good big one beats a very good small one.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
Corbetts Cross - would typically be one I’m interested in for the BANC but I just can’t get past his size/scope. The only time I’ve seen him in the flesh was on his way to the start in the Bartlett and to my eye he looked on the small size. Will be happy to leave him for now as in the back of my mind I have a niggling feeling he could be one of those that end up in the stayers hurdle.

Does anyone else share the same thoughts or am I way off the mark?
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Corbetts winning P2P (3rd attempt)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwjCBJ94Y-c
 
Depends on how small you consider to be too small. It's not always easy to judge a horse's size when they're being led round the parade ring as there's a definite optical illusion based on the size of the human who is leading.

Kemboy wasn't big, maybe short of 16.1hh, which is why it was thought that he would stay over hurdles after his novice season. However, he schooled over fences with such enthusiasm that the plan changed.

I've no figures to prove it but my own thoughts are that it's easier to keep a smaller horse sound. For instance, I was always concerned about the size of Monkfish with all that extra weight to support.
 
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Exar Essay said:
Same. Remember speaking with chair of the Landrake Fan Club Dandrew99 at length about this last year. Was hoping he'd be the NHC horse, but as you say Odin, looks unlikely if he's not been out already.

On breeding, he should be comfortable over the mid trip or longer trip.
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As potentially the most Landrake biased person in existence, I struggle to see him being involved in the graded races. As you say, NHC looked to be the potential one, but we haven't seen him yet which would be the usual route for an Elliot NHC horse.

From what I understand, he's a very hard horse to keep right, hence him not going for the pipe last year (or even getting qualified, which was bizarre at the time). Could definitely see him winning a big handicap at some point, but I wouldn't even like to guess whether that would be over hurdles or fences, let alone guessing which race.
 
Have had Hills price up Willmount any race for the fest. Gave 20/1 so hit it with an Epic Boost :)
 
somer1 said:
Have had Hills price up Willmount any race for the fest. Gave 20/1 so hit it with an Epic Boost :)
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I'd say that's an OK price, decent with the boost though, so I've followed you in :encouragement:
 
somer1 said:
Have had Hills price up Willmount any race for the fest. Gave 20/1 so hit it with an Epic Boost :)
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Very nice. Have a good feeling he's going to be Henderson's Supreme horse. If that's the case then he'll be cut dramatically.
 
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