• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

General Chat

For those that like a trend and believe trainers are creatures of habit Lobos is spot on.

The horses most likely to go to the National Hunt Chase from the Willie Mullins yard are those that previously placed in the Ballymore or Bartlett. All of Mullins last three winners when that route, and if you add in Carefully Selected during the same period, who unseated as 10/11 favourite, you only have Lord Royal as an outlier in a year when he had nothing suitable. This change in approach from Mullins coincided with the cut in trip and the race being upped in grade.

Based on his usual MO Willie will send Champ Kiely to the National Hunt Chase and his price is worth having onside with cashout.
 
Spectre said:
Based on his usual MO Willie will send Champ Kiely to the National Hunt Chase and his price is worth having onside with cashout.
Click to expand...

Given his injury last year, couldn't you throw in Cocooner on that basis too?
 
Is it just me or is the PP festival futures markets all showing Ballymore 2024 then the actual race... bit odd. Think I'll back away until they fix that..
 
callhimgamblor said:
Is it just me or is the PP festival futures markets all showing Ballymore 2024 then the actual race... bit odd. Think I'll back away until they fix that..
Click to expand...

…yep, bit of an IT glitch by the look of it.
 
Maybe a good opportunity to back something in the Supreme or Bartlett and later claim you thought it was the Ballymore :emmersed:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eggs
Exar Essay said:
Given his injury last year, couldn't you throw in Cocooner on that basis too?
Click to expand...

Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

Inpaire Et Passe - Champion Hurlde
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Hercule De Seuil - Arkle (or bypasses altogether)
Facile Vega - Arkle/Turners
Hunters Yarn Arkle/Turners
Minella Cocooner - Turners
Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Nick Rockett - Brown Advisory
Champ Kiely - National Hunt Chase

I'll be keeping half an eye on Grangeclare West too. I think they were struggling to get him right all season, but the combination of that much improved run at Punchestown and a switch to fences makes him of interest again.

I'm sure others will have different views from those above, but it always makes for good debate, and can be both interesting and amusing to look back at how right and wrong we get it.

To some degree it feeds into the novice yankee thread too, where I would be avoiding novice hurdlers, and I'd be picking Willie's Arkle and Browns horses, and debating the Turners and National Hunt Chase between Willie, Gordon, and any other lively contenders.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eggs
Spectre said:
Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

Inpaire Et Passe - Champion Hurlde
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Hercule De Seuil - Arkle (or bypasses altogether)
Facile Vega - Arkle/Turners
Hunters Yarn Arkle/Turners
Minella Cocooner - Turners
Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Nick Rockett - Brown Advisory
Champ Kiely - National Hunt Chase

I'll be keeping half an eye on Grangeclare West too. I think they were struggling to get him right all season, but the combination of that much improved run at Punchestown and a switch to fences makes him of interest again.

I'm sure others will have different views from those above, but it always makes for good debate, and can be both interesting and amusing to look back at how right and wrong we get it.

To some degree it feeds into the novice yankee thread too, where I would be avoiding novice hurdlers, and I'd be picking Willie's Arkle and Browns horses, and debating the Turners and National Hunt Chase between Willie, Gordon, and any other lively contenders.
Click to expand...

Any ideas or interest in Embassy Gardens? Or is he a horse that you don’t see making much of an impact next season and therefore won’t be on the boat over?
 
Spectre said:
Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

...

Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
Click to expand...

I don't disagree and think trainer comments indicate MC will step back in trip if anything. But when watching him race, I always thought he stayed on nicely and didn't look to want a lesser trip. Your interesting stat re Ballymore/AB placed horses going on to become NHC runners for Willie made me reconsider my initial views.

Interesting re your placement of FTF. Do you think Willie will go through with his suggestion of skipping a season in Novice Hurdles with him? He's threatened it a few times recently e.g. Gunner Yeats, Madmansgame etc. but hasn't gone through with it for a long while now.
 
Spectre said:
Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

Inpaire Et Passe - Champion Hurlde
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Hercule De Seuil - Arkle (or bypasses altogether)
Facile Vega - Arkle/Turners
Hunters Yarn Arkle/Turners
Minella Cocooner - Turners
Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Nick Rockett - Brown Advisory
Champ Kiely - National Hunt Chase

I'll be keeping half an eye on Grangeclare West too. I think they were struggling to get him right all season, but the combination of that much improved run at Punchestown and a switch to fences makes him of interest again.

I'm sure others will have different views from those above, but it always makes for good debate, and can be both interesting and amusing to look back at how right and wrong we get it.

To some degree it feeds into the novice yankee thread too, where I would be avoiding novice hurdlers, and I'd be picking Willie's Arkle and Browns horses, and debating the Turners and National Hunt Chase between Willie, Gordon, and any other lively contenders.
Click to expand...

Has there been any word on if Fact To File will go chasing and skip hurdling?
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Has there been any word on if Fact To File will go chasing and skip hurdling?
Click to expand...

Right after Cheltenham last year Willie mentioned it. Due to him looking a chaser and his age...

Not sure about anything being said since?
 
BookieBasher said:
Any ideas or interest in Embassy Gardens? Or is he a horse that you don’t see making much of an impact next season and therefore won’t be on the boat over?
Click to expand...

Spectre will I'm sure provide a far more informative response than me, but I think Embassy Gardens is a horse who shouldn't be forgotten.
He didn't settle in the potato race at all but was still there at the top of the hill, that tells me the horse has plenty of stamina if he can run with the choke out for over 2 miles and still be up there.
I've no idea what happened at Punchestown and haven't read anything that explains the run, but I do know the ground was riding quick that day so perhaps wasn't suited by it.
For me he'll be NH Chase or bust, I've covered in a small way and I'm not massively excited by the horse, but I do want to have him onside...
 
BookieBasher said:
Any ideas or interest in Embassy Gardens? Or is he a horse that you don’t see making much of an impact next season and therefore won’t be on the boat over?
Click to expand...

I think he's got a lot to prove and I don't see anything in his form that makes him of interest, certainly for a G1 novice. As Istabraq says, possibly he could go to the NH Chase, but even then unlikely as a first string.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Lobos
There's been nothing on Fact To File since Willie talked about him last March, but it had been mentioned pre-Festival as well as post-Festival which indicates to me that there had already been a conversation with JP, who I'd presume has plenty of novice hurdle options.

I accept that Willie has talked about doing so with other horses in recent times, but my opinion is I think if he schools well he'll go over fences.
 
Patrick Mullins in the latest paddy power podcast states he thinks Nick Rockett is ‘probably not a grade 1 horse’ about 6 minutes from the end if you want to listen/watch (believe it’s on YouTube too). Just mentioning as I know a few of us are interested in him for the BANC. Of all those in media I will say I find Patrick’s insights to willies horses most often wide of the mark so may not mean a whole pile just thought I’d highlight
 
BagOfHammers said:
Patrick Mullins in the latest paddy power podcast states he thinks Nick Rockett is ‘probably not a grade 1 horse’ about 6 minutes from the end if you want to listen/watch (believe it’s on YouTube too). Just mentioning as I know a few of us are interested in him for the BANC. Of all those in media I will say I find Patrick’s insights to willies horses most often wide of the mark so may not mean a whole pile just thought I’d highlight
Click to expand...

Does he mention much else from the yard? Is it worth a listen?
 
He's right though. ATM he's done nothing to suggest he is but clearly that could all change.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Run4Home
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom