General Chat

[Big Bucks]

Supreme form looking good after the last few races.

 

[Exar Essay]

FAF has deeply upset me. That is all

 

[Odin]

FAF has deeply upset me. That is all

Looked to me like he hated the ground and a few are starting to struggle with it. Something I'll be wary of going into tomorrow I think

 

[Eggs]

….notice the Tote at Aintree match SP if bigger. Not sure if that’s the norm these days with the Tote.

 

[Lobos]

….notice the Tote at Aintree match SP if bigger. Not sure if that’s the norm these days with the Tote.

Yes it is. Their returns for outsiders these days is vastly reduced though.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Is it not linked to this World Pool ?

 

[Exar Essay]

Looked to me like he hated the ground and a few are starting to struggle with it. Something I'll be wary of going into tomorrow I think

Hmmm. I’m not surez. Good to soft ambit a little tacky doesn’t strike me as difficult ground.

I was stumped today. Zero winners. Cheltenham form came good early doors then disappeared. Meh. Life.

 

[Lobos]

Hmmm. I’m not surez. Good to soft ambit a little tacky doesn’t strike me as difficult ground.

I was stumped today. Zero winners. Cheltenham form came good early doors then disappeared. Meh. Life.

You can pretty much forget Cheltenham form at Aintree and Punchestown. Very few can double up. Always been that way.

 

[Irish Rugby]

One good old reliable was following Cheltenham 1 and 2s at Aintree. Short prices but a high percentage of winners. Graded races only.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

One good old reliable was following Cheltenham 1 and 2s at Aintree. Short prices but a high percentage of winners. Graded races only.

Yeah I don’t know what the very modern trends say but 10+ years ago plenty doubled up.
We’ve had alot of deep ground Cheltenham’s in recent years, maybe they take their toll when coming to Aintree if those trends have flipped….

 

[Odin]

Hmmm. I’m not surez. Good to soft ambit a little tacky doesn’t strike me as difficult ground.

I was stumped today. Zero winners. Cheltenham form came good early doors then disappeared. Meh. Life.

I had a shocker today as well if that's any consolation. Luckily tomorrow's another day for us to (responsibly) win the losses back :encouragement:

Ground wasn't good to soft though for me. Probably was yesterday, but 5mm watering followed by whatever rain they had resulted in horrible ground like the Wednesday of Cheltenham last year (but obviously not as bad).

My comment related to FAF was based on Davy pulling him wide after starting him on the inside rail despite the horse in front of him jumping right - seemed clear to me that he wanted to get him on better ground, so that coupled with some fiddly jumping (which may just be him - others will know better) suggested to me disliking the ground. Also possible he just wasn't good enough on the day as inthepocket travelled incredibly well the whole race..

 

[Odin]

Yeah I don’t know what the very modern trends say but 10+ years ago plenty doubled up.
We’ve had alot of deep ground Cheltenham’s in recent years, maybe they take their toll when coming to Aintree if those trends have flipped….

Many ways to skin this cat, but decided to have a go over my morning cuppa today. I'm typing this as I go along so no idea where it will lead...

Let's start with the baseline level. Since 2008, any horse who ran at the festival LTO before going on to Aintree in any race.
1605 bets, 168 winners (10.47%), 461 places (28.7%): -257SP, +126.54BSP

Let's immediately switch that to Grade 1 or Grade 2 races only at Aintree - leaving Grade 3 out as that would include Grand National.
743 bets, 116 winners (15.61%), 289 places (38.9%): -130SP, -5BSP

Clearly got a better chance of winning a graded race having run at a graded race at Cheltenham. Let's look at the breakdown of won, placed (2nd or 3rd) and unplaced at Cheltenham.
WON: 90 bets, 30 winners (33.33%), 57 places (63.3%): -3SP, +4BSP
PLACED: 188 bets, 43 winners (22.87%), 98 places (52.13%): +10SP, +52BSP
UNPLACED: 465 bets, 43 winners (9.25%), 134 places (28.82%): -137SP, -61BSP

Interestingly, unplaced horses are about par for the course in terms of Aintree performance, but winners in particularly do have a great chance of following up over the whole time period. I'll focus on winners for the next part just because that was the initial conversation, but you could just as easily included placed horses for approx 28% strike rate and bigger "blind" profit. Anyway, quick breakdown by year - I'll split this into 3 groups for brevity. The Golden Years (2008-2014), The Pre-Covid Years (2015-2019), The Post-Covid Years (2020-2022, not including this year)
GOLDEN: 50 bets, 18 winners (36%), 34 places (68%): +9SP, +14BSP
PRE-COVID: 28 bets, 8 winners (28.6%), 15 places (53.6%): -15SP, -14BSP
POST-COVID:10 bets, 3 winners (30%), 7 places (70%): +4SP, +5BSP

I'm not sure what conclusion to draw on that. I'd say 30% of horses following up at Aintree is a fairly large percentage but others will have different views. It's worth noting that the average win odds were 2.89 (SP) and 3.21 (BSP) so 30% obviously isn't that great when compared to implied SP percentage chance of 34.6% chance of winning. Finally, does Cheltenham going affect the results?
HEAVY: 1 bet, 0 winners (0%), 0 places (0%): -1SP, -1BSP
SOFT: 13 bets, 3 winners (23.1%), 6 places (46.2%): -8SP, -8BSP
GD-SFT: 43 bets, 13 winners (30.2%), 27 places (62.8%): +2SP, +7BSP
GOOD: 33 bets, 14 winners (42.4%), 24 places (72.7%): +4SP, +11BSP

Ground at Cheltenham clearly an influencing factor for me rather than specific season. Should be noted that in the POST-COVID years when Cheltenham ground was defined as GD-SFT:
7 bets, 2 winners (28.6%), 5 places (71.4%): +5SP, +7BSP (i.e. all the profit)



What does it all mean? Horses follow up in Graded races at a decent strike rate from Cheltenham to Aintree, when the ground at Cheltenham was Good to Soft or better. The ground was soft on all four days at Cheltenham this year so we should be marking up any repeat winners. I've got to look at today's racing now so maybe I'll play about with stats from the placed horses another day. Could be a worthwhile set of stats for Fairyhouse Easter and Punchestown as well, but I'll see.

YOU CAN ALL CALL ME SAD AND/OR IGNORE ME IN MY NERDY CORNER NOW :bee:
​

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Odin
One question, how big is that cup you drink from ?
Thanks for that, interesting read…

 

[Odin]

Odin
One question, how big is that cup you drink from ?
Thanks for that, interesting read…

Haha, I won't lie - it was a good excuse to make a second cuppa, but was only about 20 mins of analysing all told. The bit that slowed me down most was copying numbers from the website to the reply box here!

 

[The Fellow]

i think there are a lot of factors which will determine the potential doubling up from Cheltenham to Aintree , if you look at historical results fair enough and you will get a figure / percentage , but i think its much more down to the individual horse and the conditions the horse ran in at Cheltenham,

The gap between Cheltenham and Aintree may influence results
if you have superstars like Constitution Hill who win in a canter at Cheltenham they are more than likely to double up at Aintree ,
If the going at Cheltenham is soft / heavy the likelihood is the horse has had a very hard race , compared to good ground runners
the speed of the race at Cheltenham may have an influence on results at Aintree, if it was a flat out pace race its probably drained the runners more than the hack canter followed by a sprint from the bottom of the hill

no doubt there will be more factors , basically i think its down to the horse and what kind of previous race they ran in ,

i'm still impressed by the work you put into your cuppa post though

 

[Odin]

i think there are a lot of factors which will determine the potential doubling up from Cheltenham to Aintree , if you look at historical results fair enough and you will get a figure / percentage , but i think its much more down to the individual horse and the conditions the horse ran in at Cheltenham,

The gap between Cheltenham and Aintree may influence results
if you have superstars like Constitution Hill who win in a canter at Cheltenham they are more than likely to double up at Aintree ,
If the going at Cheltenham is soft / heavy the likelihood is the horse has had a very hard race , compared to good ground runners
the speed of the race at Cheltenham may have an influence on results at Aintree, if it was a flat out pace race its probably drained the runners more than the hack canter followed by a sprint from the bottom of the hill

no doubt there will be more factors , basically i think its down to the horse and what kind of previous race they ran in ,

i'm still impressed by the work you put into your cuppa post though

I completely agree - numbers are just guidelines and I wouldn't back blindly at these figures because they don't account for the margins you speak of. There are some systems that I am beginning to back blindly this flat season for the first time, which have started with some promising results but I'll be keeping them to myself for now!

Talking of hard races, you gave me an idea to look at distance the horse won by as a surrogate measure of a 'hard' race at Cheltenham. I've used 0-1 length victories, 1-4 lengths and 4+ lengths for comparison. The figures include the lower limit but fall below the top limit (e.g. 0 to 1L is actually 0-0.99L). I've no idea whether these are appropriate but I guessed them before looking at results so I'll go with them and I've done this on all goings for my ease.

BASELINE: 90 bets, 30 winners (33.33%), 57 places (63.3%): -3SP, +4BSP
0-1L: 17 bets, 2 winners (11.76%), 7 places (41.18%): -7SP, -5BSP
1-4L: 36 bets, 13 winners (36.11%), 25 places (69.44%): +2SP, +5BSP
4+L: 35 bets, 14 winners (40%), 24 places (68.57%): +2SP +5BSP

Missing a couple of winners there but the headline is that tough previous races arguably matter more than the ground looking at percentages:
0-1L: 17 bets, 2 winners (11.76%), 7 places (41.18%): -7SP, -5BSP​
1+L: 71 bets, 27 winners (38%), 49 places (69%): +3.5SP, +10BSP

I'll stop now because I could just end up down a rabbit hole...

 

[The Fellow]

could be bigger than a rabbit hole , might be a black hole , you could go on for ever looking for all the variables lol

 

[Exar Essay]

I had a shocker today as well if that's any consolation. Luckily tomorrow's another day for us to (responsibly) win the losses back :encouragement:

Ground wasn't good to soft though for me. Probably was yesterday, but 5mm watering followed by whatever rain they had resulted in horrible ground like the Wednesday of Cheltenham last year (but obviously not as bad).

My comment related to FAF was based on Davy pulling him wide after starting him on the inside rail despite the horse in front of him jumping right - seemed clear to me that he wanted to get him on better ground, so that coupled with some fiddly jumping (which may just be him - others will know better) suggested to me disliking the ground. Also possible he just wasn't good enough on the day as inthepocket travelled incredibly well the whole race..

Firstly, congratulations on deciphering my fat fingered typing. Obscene post, apologies for that.

Secondly, having watched it back, I do agree with you. Watching live, I’d not thought about Davy searching for the better ground. Good point. He didn’t travel well either.

My greater concern though, is what he’s beaten elsewhere. Parmenion, Tag Man have let the form down a bit recently. And Corbetts cross is a stayer who himself didn’t do a huge amount for the form at Cheltenham.

I do really like him but wonder if he’s not quite up to the very best.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Just how good could Marine Nationale be?!

 

[Irish Rugby]

Royal Bond form this year!! That's 3 Grade 1 winners now behind Marine Nationale. In any other year, he'd probably be NH Horse of the Year.