General Chat

[Kevloaf]

Do you feel you could definitely have a profitable week, with no ante-post positions Quevega ?
...and to a lesser (or maybe more important) extent, would you enjoy it (the week) more?

 

[Quevega]

Do you feel you could definitely have a profitable week, with no ante-post positions Quevega ?
...and to a lesser (or maybe more important) extent, would you enjoy it (the week) more?

With none, I'd say no,
Although I think the handicaps would probably see me ok, as what I do with those has been profitable for a while now.

As long as I've had some ante-post plays on select races. I'd say Yes.

I would also bet bigger.

The only concern/caveat would be the way the festival is heading with so much dilution and the uncompetitive nature of so many races.
The Mullins monoply is also making things increasingly difficult, but easier at the same time.

I'd possibly be banking on getting more head to head matches right than wrong, and there's no guarantees on that of course.

I think I would enjoy the week more, for sure.
And still have time to take the piss on here all year :highly_amused:

 

[Lobos]

I'd have absolutely no chance of winning if I only bet during the week with no AP's. Did it for about 30+ years and had pennies left every time. Still had a fantastic time though !

It is getting a lot harder though AP and especially this year. The Mullins monopoly is definitely not helping and imo has to be stopped somehow as it will eventually destroy NH racing, or at least the betting side of it, completely. You can tell on here the way it's going with every man and his dog just jumping on Mullins horses blindly for every race which is simply taking the fun out of it now and can only go one way.
AP punting is not what it once was for sure.

 

[Eggs]

…..for those using SkyBet, it’s worth checking out their TWAR thread before putting bets on as there are some anomalies. For example;

Ramillies 8-1 NHC, yet 9-1 in their TWAR market.
Fascile Mode 8-1 CB, 9-1 TWAR

i suspect there’s more.

 

[HesTheOne]

…..for those using SkyBet, it’s worth checking out their TWAR thread before putting bets on as there are some anomalies. For example;

Ramillies 8-1 NHC, yet 9-1 in their TWAR market.
Fascile Mode 8-1 CB, 9-1 TWAR

i suspect there’s more.

Good observation Eggs, believe DD was one of these cases too earlier in the season

your some man to find these Yolks :afro:

 

[opatcho]

Bit Like sitting around a Lake fishing and the Lake getting smaller whilst the number of fishermen are getting larger and simultaneously getting smarter, cos they have to, to compete to get the dwindling number of fish, but they've become more stupid at the same time cos they're still sat around the same fucking lake.
​

fucking LOL... but so true

I think Cheltenham as a antepost betting strategy is becoming harder and harder every year. I'm kind of wishing for 60mm of rain a few days before Cheltenham, heavy all round, something that screws up the form book, meaning muggy favs are vulnerable to something which is overpriced at the tail end of the market

I'm seriously considering a change in my strategy next year. I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm may start focussing on Aintree.

I find it extremely difficult to switch my mindset and approach from Cheltenham to Aintree, so I will have a small acca on 2-3 horses and a bet in the National to keep it interesting. However, every year I wished I focussed on the Aintree meet as there appears to be plenty of value out there. This is probably due laziness, I know... I've dont it, and folks just backing horses that have won at the Fez.

Last year - not only do most of these look obvious (in hindsight) but I'm surprised at some of the prices they went off at
- Fakir D'Oudairies for example went off at 11/10 fav!
- Langer Dan went off at 7/2 at the fez in a race that was full of Irish hopefuls, he didnt make it round that day but went off at 4/1 at Aintree, despite the lack of Irish competition
- Jonbon at Evens, El Fab at 4/1
- I back Ahoy Senor for the Fez on the day, 4/1. Went off again at 4/1 at Aintree and I didnt back him despite the going and course playing more to his strenghts
- Clan Des Obeaux went off at 13/2. Rested horse, up against horses that ran in the Gold Cup (tough race to recover from) and some Ryanair horses. Win each way bet there
- Epantate 2/1, up against Zanahiyr who she had already beat. and horses like Monimiral, McFab, Brewin (mehhhh)
- Three Stripe lIfe, 5/2F

Naturally, there's less podcasts for Aintree given the time between the Fez and that meet, and I think a lot of people are just burnt out by then.
There are less posts on forums after cheltenham, less interest, less thoughts and edges into the race = less antepost/early money going down

In addition, I dont think you'd need to spend much time on Aintree either. Example of some guidelines I think I could factor into selection process....

1) Do you think the fez has left a mark on the horse (Gold Cup/AB/BANC)
2) Look at the horses than could have ran well at the fez but has come here instead
3) Was there any shorty novices that clearly didnt act around cheltenham and would fair better around aintree
4) Nicholls likely to have a quiet fez, but he'll come good at Aintree

I may trial this out... as the festival is becoming more and more difficult get a price.

Oh, and I would only focus on graded races, the handicaps at Aintree are a money pit unless you strike one of the 25/1 - 50/1 winners for the week, and there appears to be plenty of them lol

 

[HesTheOne]

I'd have absolutely no chance of winning if I only bet during the week with no AP's. Did it for about 30+ years and had pennies left every time. Still had a fantastic time though !

It is getting a lot harder though AP and especially this year. The Mullins monopoly is definitely not helping and imo has to be stopped somehow as it will eventually destroy NH racing, or at least the betting side of it, completely. You can tell on here the way it's going with every man and his dog just jumping on Mullins horses blindly for every race which is simply taking the fun out of it now and can only go one way.
AP punting is not what it once was for sure.

The uncompetitive nature is poor but it’s all the product of super success, realistically can’t stop all these rich owners wanting to go to him as he gets winners. Munir and Souede there for example was it 10 winners out of 11 or so with Mullins? and plenty of them will win again.

other trainers can’t step up to same level and the dilution of races makes it even worse, one of which is an easier fix but highly unlikely to happen.

A financial fair play rule?:biggrin-new:

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Been having a think...

I'm pretty sure that next season I will be adopting a different strategy.
I'm not one for getting bets down too early, but can see the logic.
But I'm not going in that direction I reckon.
And my ante-post stakes are normally small compared to my day to day stuff. So this wouldn't suit.

So I think I may stick to mainly NRNB next year except maybe a select few, and wait until after Xmas.
I may utilise the win today markets if they offer any value. Think these are getting worse also.

The reason I think this is a good idea is that it seems obvious to me that the pool of antepost players has got larger, it's still small in comparison to the old days but it's larger than 5 years ago say.
You only have to see the amount of Podcasts to see this.

But what I think this has led to, is create some false prices and markets, much more so than normal. This is normally Ok as if we have false prices some will be wrong in a good way, but this is ante-post betting and not "day of" markets. Bookies are having our eyes, most of the time, and finding the value is harder.

For example, The last few Mullins horses to hose up have been over backed and simply do not represent a true reflection of the chances, but it seems there's enough Muggy betting going on to both encourage the bookmakers to string us along and push prices even lower. They've been backed like they've won graded races when they've won low grade uncompetitive maidens.

The lack of any get outs due to cash outs and low liquidity on exchange is also getting worse.

I basically think we're getting mugged off and mugging ourselves off, if you know what I mean.

Bit Like sitting around a Lake fishing and the Lake getting smaller whilst the number of fishermen are getting larger and simultaneously getting smarter, cos they have to, to compete to get the dwindling number of fish, but they've become more stupid at the same time cos they're still sat around the same fucking lake.

An example of what I mean by this is that to get the value nowadays you have to almost back horses before they run, not just after declarations. but also on entry, and often even before that. :stupid:
This hasn't always been the case, it's just crept in as the years have passed.

Even though I've spent shit loads of time on it and try to be selective and as shrewd as I can, I still get the feeling I'm pissing in the wind with antepost.

This is not because I'm not in a good position this season, cos I think I've got a very healthy position overall.
For my strategy anyway, which is more defensive than most, which means I'm trying not to lose more than trying to win big.

Basically, the excellent contributors like Saxon, eggs, native river and everyone else with the clever threads and ideas - and then the numerous podcasts with followers, have ruined it for me, :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:
They've simply made it easier for the lazy Mugs and FOMO merchants to identify likely bets.
And the bookies flashing lights have been on overdrive enticing similar types in.

I'll be looking very closely at the markets after decs and how they compare and this will make up my mind for sure.

However There is no answer except to go and fish elsewhere.:victorious:
:amen:

Very interesting reading and I have to say I have been having similar thoughts myself. I’m just trying to figure out how I might approach things differently. Typically I have, handicaps aside, at least one AP bet per race. But I think next year I will simply be a lot more selective about which races I participate in based on value and just accept there may be many races I will simply have to avoid. Take this year, for example, I have yet to have a bet in the Supreme or Champion Hurdle. I haven’t seen much value and I don’t like tying large amounts of money up for such a long period trying to chase a return. For me, that is just unwise as it’s too high risk and in the long term it’s not the right approach. Better wait for the day and see the lay of the land.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Been having a think...

I'm pretty sure that next season I will be adopting a different strategy.
I'm not one for getting bets down too early, but can see the logic.
But I'm not going in that direction I reckon.
And my ante-post stakes are normally small compared to my day to day stuff. So this wouldn't suit.

So I think I may stick to mainly NRNB next year except maybe a select few, and wait until after Xmas.
I may utilise the win today markets if they offer any value. Think these are getting worse also.

The reason I think this is a good idea is that it seems obvious to me that the pool of antepost players has got larger, it's still small in comparison to the old days but it's larger than 5 years ago say.
You only have to see the amount of Podcasts to see this.

But what I think this has led to, is create some false prices and markets, much more so than normal. This is normally Ok as if we have false prices some will be wrong in a good way, but this is ante-post betting and not "day of" markets. Bookies are having our eyes, most of the time, and finding the value is harder.

For example, The last few Mullins horses to hose up have been over backed and simply do not represent a true reflection of the chances, but it seems there's enough Muggy betting going on to both encourage the bookmakers to string us along and push prices even lower. They've been backed like they've won graded races when they've won low grade uncompetitive maidens.

The lack of any get outs due to cash outs and low liquidity on exchange is also getting worse.

I basically think we're getting mugged off and mugging ourselves off, if you know what I mean.

Bit Like sitting around a Lake fishing and the Lake getting smaller whilst the number of fishermen are getting larger and simultaneously getting smarter, cos they have to, to compete to get the dwindling number of fish, but they've become more stupid at the same time cos they're still sat around the same fucking lake.

An example of what I mean by this is that to get the value nowadays you have to almost back horses before they run, not just after declarations. but also on entry, and often even before that. :stupid:
This hasn't always been the case, it's just crept in as the years have passed.

Even though I've spent shit loads of time on it and try to be selective and as shrewd as I can, I still get the feeling I'm pissing in the wind with antepost.

This is not because I'm not in a good position this season, cos I think I've got a very healthy position overall.
For my strategy anyway, which is more defensive than most, which means I'm trying not to lose more than trying to win big.

Basically, the excellent contributors like Saxon, eggs, native river and everyone else with the clever threads and ideas - and then the numerous podcasts with followers, have ruined it for me, :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:
They've simply made it easier for the lazy Mugs and FOMO merchants to identify likely bets.
And the bookies flashing lights have been on overdrive enticing similar types in.

I'll be looking very closely at the markets after decs and how they compare and this will make up my mind for sure.

However There is no answer except to go and fish elsewhere.:victorious:
:amen:

The deeper his talent pool goes the harder it will be for the yard to stack rank their own stable...particularly with novices that often have a completely different propensity to convert home performance to the track (either positively or negatively).

At the weekend he had the moral winner of a grade 2 that he hadn’t even entered in any of the festival graded races beating silly other horses in his own yard that have multiple entries. He also had a winner of a novice hurdle that had been pretty much ignored ante post and available at ridiculous prices and is now second favourite for its intended target. If they expected this performance then the yard showed remarkable restraint in allowing the fancy prices to exist for so long.

My point is perhaps the change we need to make as punters is to not assume that he knows his pecking order, and the deeper his talent pool gets the less we should assume that past trends, race choices, trips etc etc are the signposts that we expect and want and are used to them being. As the masses move religiously with every trend and signpost in the obvious direction, maybe the play moving forward is to go in the opposite direction or to purposefully look for alternatives.

 

[Quevega]

The deeper his talent pool goes the harder it will be for the yard to stack rank their own stable...particularly with novices that often have a completely different propensity to convert home performance to the track (either positively or negatively).

At the weekend he had the moral winner of a grade 2 that he hadn’t even entered in any of the festival graded races beating silly other horses in his own yard that have multiple entries. He also had a winner of a novice hurdle that had been pretty much ignored ante post and available at ridiculous prices and is now second favourite for its intended target. If they expected this performance then the yard showed remarkable restraint in allowing the fancy prices to exist for so long.

My point is perhaps the change we need to make as punters is to not assume that he knows his pecking order, and the deeper his talent pool gets the less we should assume that past trends, race choices, trips etc etc are not the signposts that we expect and want and are used to them being. As the masses move religiously with every trend and signpost in the obvious direction, maybe the play moving forward is to go in the opposite direction or to purposefully look for alternatives.

Yeah, agreed.
I think that’s partly why I may prefer the waiting and assessing options going forward.
like normal betting really, actually looking at the form.
this probably applies more to the novice hurdles I suppose and I’m sure many people shrewder than myself have been holding back on those for a while.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

But what I think this has led to, is create some false prices and markets, much more so than normal. This is normally Ok as if we have false prices some will be wrong in a good way, but this is ante-post betting and not "day of" markets. Bookies are having our eyes, most of the time, and finding the value is harder.

This is so true.
So many horses get added to markets at the request of the the punter and as it's a one-way market bookies are under no pressure to offer nay value, in years gone by punters would wait for a horse to get priced up and if there's a error you can take advantage of it.
So a horse who has six entries and could be rated anywhere between 142 and 150 gets priced at 16/1 for e.g the M Pipe, enough people have their fivers and tenners and said bookie trims to 10/1, but with only one bookie pricing when the rest go up they'll see the market move because it's all visible and you have no chance of any value.
I've been as guilty as anyone in the past but a lack of patience creates false prices.
And as you also point out, Betfair are slow in creating ante post markets and even when they do it's generally only Betfair who populate these markets for pennies.
Could it be that aggressive account closing/restricting and affordability rubbish has pushed enough punters away from standard UK platforms that this is the new norm ?

 

[Rooster Booster]

This is so true.
So many horses get added to markets at the request of the the punter and as it's a one-way market bookies are under no pressure to offer nay value, in years gone by punters would wait for a horse to get priced up and if there's a error you can take advantage of it.
So a horse who has six entries and could be rated anywhere between 142 and 150 gets priced at 16/1 for e.g the M Pipe, enough people have their fivers and tenners and said bookie trims to 10/1, but with only one bookie pricing when the rest go up they'll see the market move because it's all visible and you have no chance of any value.
I've been as guilty as anyone in the past but a lack of patience creates false prices.
And as you also point out, Betfair are slow in creating ante post markets and even when they do it's generally only Betfair who populate these markets for pennies.
Could it be that aggressive account closing/restricting and affordability rubbish has pushed enough punters away from standard UK platforms that this is the new norm ?

100% agree. My least favourite thread on here is the handicap thread and the virtue I would grant on the forum If I could is impulse control. The right horses will organically find their way into the right markets. We do their fucking work for them and it’s driving me loopy (or should I say loopier).

 

[MTR]

I’d advise having a listen to the Nick luck podcast today if you want to hear an absolute defeatist baby of a man Henry daly talk about running blenkinsop in the ballymore :biggrin-new: gave me a good laugh.

 

[BagOfHammers]

Have noticed some of my betfair cash outs have increased today. They were offering my stake on most but are now giving profit on most where the horse has shortened in price. Not sure if it’s to do with the novice hurdle entries because it’s even happened to my fact to file bet. Not sure if the same on paddy power or for everyone else

 

[Nevertoolate]

Have noticed some of my betfair cash outs have increased today. They were offering my stake on most but are now giving profit on most where the horse has shortened in price. Not sure if it’s to do with the novice hurdle entries because it’s even happened to my fact to file bet. Not sure if the same on paddy power or for everyone else

I’d say it’s to do with pp/betfair correcting their prices across the board yesterday

 

[Quevega]

Just been watching Harry Findlay interview with N Luck.
I really like him, but apart from him banging on about his latest Tote scheme in Ireland.:sleeping:
I had to laugh when they finally got on to the affordability checks and he started blurting out about the times when he basically nearly ended it all :highly_amused::sorrow:
Muppet.
credit to Nick for pushing him on it.

 

[opatcho]

He' a proper character isnt he, but with that comes some annoying traits... like repeating himself LOL

 

[HesTheOne]

He' a proper character isnt he, but with that comes some annoying traits... like repeating himself LOL

The mans brain seams to run a million miles an hour - and so does his speech.

did you hear about the tote in Australia? Cause I fucking did about 100 times in that interview :biggrin-new:

 

[opatcho]

The mans brain seams to run a million miles an hour - and so does his speech.

did you hear about the tote in Australia? Cause I fucking did about 100 times in that interview :biggrin-new:

6%... 12%.... 30%.... 12%.... 10%.... farkkking hell

 

[Big Bucks]

Boylesports have just took away the only good thing going for them, BOG following suit with most other firms and going from the day of the race fs