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General Chat

Lobos said:
I've learnt my lesson, finally, not to mess with the Handicaps AP. Absolute minefield now and a complete Bookies Benefit. I wait until the week itself and just do EW cross doubles and the odd single if I really fancy something. Guaranteed runners, prices are still very competitive and best of all you get 6-8 places on all the races which gives me the chance of getting more than 1 cross double up in each race.
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I’ve definitely not played in the handicaps as much this year as well compared to others. And I have decided to only go in NRNB if I do (which WH have helped out with when going NRNB so early this year)
 
Lobos said:
Thanks Eggs. It's the 8 places that is the biggest draw for me with my cross doubles. Mahoosive. Have had some finish 8th and 8th before, beaten 20 lengths+ and still made a healthy profit. Many times I need to wait until the official full result comes through to check them as the big screen coverage often switches back to the winner pulling up before some of mine cross the line. Bizarre experience but oddly exciting!!
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The extra places in 90-95% of cases is poor value.
You're just taking lower prices, for the extra places.
Sky and other bookmakers do it regularly and they are mugging you off in the majority of cases.
It's a false economy.
And definitely not mahoosive. :highly_amused:

I'm not sure 8 places gets offered that often these days either. except for the each way extra options.
Might be worth someone logging these this year.

Like most markets you have to find the ones that are actually value, sticking an extra place or two on does not make that a given.
 
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Fair play to olly Murphy

Managed to get itchy feet and Thomas Darby both to win in the space of a few days
 
Quevega said:
The extra places in 90-95% of cases is poor value.
You're just taking lower prices, for the extra places.
Sky and other bookmakers do it regularly and they are mugging you off in the majority of cases.
It's a false economy.
And definitely not mahoosive. :highly_amused:

I'm not sure 8 places gets offered that often these days either. except for the each way extra options.
Might be worth someone logging these this year.

Like most markets you have to find the ones that are actually value, sticking an extra place or two on does not make that a given.
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Yep. Always pick them around 8-1 to 20-1 mark say 1st to 6th favs. Normally do 1 'Banker' ew in one race and 3 in another. 3 cross doubles in total so at 10 pound ew stakes the total cost between two of us is 60 pound (30 each). If we get 2 placed (say for example 8/1fav and 16/1 4th fav) then the return is 150 pounds (90 pound profit). I've used those odds as we've had two winners at those prices on a few occasions giving us a return of nearly 1700 quid. We often use 2 from one race and 3 from another which increases the stake but clearly gives you a much better chance of getting at least 1 ew double in and in many occasions more than one.

Not everyone's cup of tea but definitely mine. Need to be very selective, not get greedy and definitely search around for the most additional places in the morning and use those bookies even though the prices are reduced a little.
 
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Quevega said:
The extra places in 90-95% of cases is poor value.
You're just taking lower prices, for the extra places.
Sky and other bookmakers do it regularly and they are mugging you off in the majority of cases.
It's a false economy.
.
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They are and they know it, but betting on muggy markets can help you keep accounts alive, if you only ever play clever, get the value, beat the SP etc you will be gone.
You’re a shrewd punter Q and I assume you have lost accounts in the past ? And maybe adapted to keep the ones you have retained ?
Mug bets aren’t always bad for you…
 
Istabraq said:
They are and they know it, but betting on muggy markets can help you keep accounts alive, if you only ever play clever, get the value, beat the SP etc you will be gone.
You’re a shrewd punter Q and I assume you have lost accounts in the past ? And maybe adapted to keep the ones you have retained ?
Mug bets aren’t always bad for you…
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I like to think I place mug bets without realising it.
I definitely do. :highly_amused:
I know you've suggested to deliberately do this before, but I've never resorted to that.
Like I say, I probably do it naturally because I like to play too much.

My main accounts like B365 & Hills are many years old now so I think I'm monitored, but allowed to play because of the sheer volume of bets and lowish stakes. The risk to them is lower as it's a slow burn, with ups and downs. I never try and hit them too hard as I spread the stakes money around if I want a 10 pointer for example.
I Use friends accounts.

I also use doubles on the day if I think the price may still be available near the off, so if the double fails I can still get more on later.
I may have 5 points in the morning as a single (split across 2 accounts, prices permitting),and place a couple of doubles also going on to the one I want.
This avoids going in too heavy handed and sticking your neck out.
Bit like your patent strategy.

I'm restricted with a few on specials , and some on max payout , some on overnight prices, but only betfair sportsbook have closed me down personally, from memory. This was one of the last accounts I opened, and it took just half a dozen bets.

Most will let me play on the day or just before the off without any issue though, even the ones where I've no offers available or have win limits. But I try and avoid 3 figure single bets as much as possible, as explained above.
 
Quevega said:
I like to think I place mug bets without realising it.
I definitely do. :highly_amused:
I know you've suggested to deliberately do this before, but I've never resorted to that.
Like I say, I probably do it naturally because I like to play too much.

My main accounts like B365 & Hills are many years old now so I think I'm monitored, but allowed to play because of the sheer volume of bets and lowish stakes. The risk to them is lower as it's a slow burn, with ups and downs. I never try and hit them too hard as I spread the stakes money around if I want a 10 pointer for example.
I Use friends accounts.

I also use doubles on the day if I think the price may still be available near the off, so if the double fails I can still get more on later.
I may have 5 points in the morning as a single (split across 2 accounts, prices permitting),and place a couple of doubles also going on to the one I want.
This avoids going in too heavy handed and sticking your neck out.
Bit like your patent strategy.

I'm restricted with a few on specials , and some on max payout , some on overnight prices, but only betfair sportsbook have closed me down personally, from memory. This was one of the last accounts I opened, and it took just half a dozen bets.

Most will let me play on the day or just before the off without any issue though, even the ones where I've no offers available or have win limits. But I try and avoid 3 figure single bets as much as possible, as explained above.
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Interesting Betfair Sportsbook close you down but PP and Sky still let you play.
Your message has reminded of something though, I got told a few years ago that betting just before the off was when bookies were least likely to restrict you yet this is something I never do, I may well dig up an old account and see what response I get 5 mins before the Irish Gold Cup on Saturday.

I’m pleased you still have a reasonably full range of accounts and whatever you’re doing you’re still flying under their radar, long may it last…
 
Istabraq said:
Interesting Betfair Sportsbook close you down but PP and Sky still let you play.
Your message has reminded of something though, I got told a few years ago that betting just before the off was when bookies were least likely to restrict you yet this is something I never do, I may well dig up an old account and see what response I get 5 mins before the Irish Gold Cup on Saturday.

I’m pleased you still have a reasonably full range of accounts and whatever you’re doing you’re still flying under their radar, long may it last…
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Paddy and sky both won’t let me have offers or just a couple of quid on specials. Also got a max win with them so often restricted to say 9 pounds on a 33-1 shot which is annoying.
but I’m on a much lower threshold on sports book where it’s two or three pounds. Effectively a dead account.

When I opened the account a few years ago I fucked up and went in on the overnights with a handful of bets and a couple won after most got backed in.
So they basically said use the exchanges.

they randomly allowed me to play on the nrnb market a couple years later though, but even though I didn’t nail them too much they then stopped that as well. I think that was because all I bet was with nrnb and using the daily boost they were allowing.
 
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I'd made a mental note this year to avoid the handicap hurdles, except from the Pertemps. I feel like due to the clear defined path you have to take for this race it helps us as punters a lot and you can get solid prices ahead of on the day if you watch the qualifiers for the obvious plots etc.

I think this is further backed up when you look at the last 10 years for the SP for the winners of the handicap hurdles you have just 2 Pertemps winners with an SP equal to or over 20/1, compared to 6 in the Boodles, 5 in the Coral & 4 in the County. If you then look at the other end of the spectrum for horses 10/1 or under the Pertemps comes out on top again with 5 winners that price, 4 for the County, 3 for the Boodles & just 2 for the Coral Cup.

Suggests that if you can get a shortprice plot for the County on side early too it might be an option but it needs to be as near to a Grade 1 animal as you can get like State Man but even then their is an air of unpredictability in this race.

I've always felt the Chases a little easier to target but again this year have tried to steer clear apart from the Ultima. 7 of the last 10 winners have been single figure prices and I feel the market leaders tend to run their races and are quite findable as antepost bets in this race. Just for interest of all the chasing handicaps this is easily the highest with Kim Muir having 6, the Plate having 4 and the Annual having just 3.

It all points to the staying races being easier to predict and get that early value in, I wonder if it is to do with the fact that the general profile of these horses stick out more and with shorter races a lot more factors can impact the final outcome in a packed field meaning some handicappers over 2m may have experienced less luck in running in big fast fields over the season then their staying counterparts.

I've managed to stick to just using free bets on the Ultima & Pertemps so far for those who fit the profiles that I expect to be setting off far shorter and have only put my own cash on Maxxum on the OTD. Think this is a strategy I want to aim to stick to but know it's far easier said then done by the time those handicap entries come in and start getting carried away. But with most bookies offering 7+ places on the big fields it does seem to be making more and more sense to avoid them til the week of!
 
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Irish Rugby said:
Handicaps. I know a fair few here, and after last year, said they would wait until either the day of the race, or at the very least, the week of the Festival.

Are you all sticking to that, or being dragged in for whatever value you find in the Boodles/The Plate/The Ultima never mind the Martin Pipe or the Kim Muir. I see a lot of the schoolboy looking podcasters now throwing around handicap 'good things' as if their portfolios demanded it.
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I've backed a couple but I have a two pronged approach. Where a target is obvious, the price imo liable to shorten and I can get NRNB, I'll dabble.

But the handicap landscape changed so much last year with the swift remarking of british horses, the novice thing this year could have a big impact again. I see a lot of people being like "wheres the fourth run gonna come from" but personally I think we won't see many if any novice handicap winners. But id rather have the sheet of entries, weights and 6+ places in front of me to guess
 
I was messing about EnvoiAlien :encouragement:
But chat in the out for the season thread should be kept to just one post confirming a horse is out for the season, nowt else.
I've no idea how he died, maybe someone knows ?
 
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Quevega said:
I was messing about EnvoiAlien :encouragement:
But chat in the out for the season thread should be kept to just one post confirming a horse is out for the season, nowt else.
I've no idea how he died, maybe someone knows ?
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No worries Q,thank you for replying.
 
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