Galway races 2015

[mayo]

The Plate
(5:30) 198E thetote.com Galway Plate (Grade A) €132,200.00
( 2m 6f 111y - 4yo+ )[MAX 22]
NHFrm
4-405 1 Boston Bob(156) (WPMullins) - . ................... 11,10
-111- 2 Rebel Fitz (FR)(155) (MWinters) - . ................ 11,09
463p1 3 Savello(154) (AJMartin) - . ............................. 11,08
-2524 4 Texas Jack(151) (NMeade) - . ....................... 11,05
42224 5 Baily Green(150) (MFMorris) - . ..................... 11,04
1pp-1 6 Alelchi Inois (FR)(147) (WPMullins) - . .......... 11,01
54-40 7 Spring Heeled(147) (JHCulloty) - . ................. 11,01
316-p 8 Shanpallas(145) (CByrnes) - . ....................... 10,13
12-73 9 Indevan (GB)(144) (WPMullins) - . ................. 10,12
p9411 10 Make A Track(144) (GElliott) - . ..................... 10,12
52226 11 Rule The World (GB)(144) (MFMorris) - ....... 10,12
22-38 12 Colour Squadron(143) (EBolger) - . .............. 10,11
20782 13 Marito (GER)(143) (CAMcBratney) - . ............ 10,11
534p5 14 Alderwood(142) (TMullins) - . ........................ 10,10
15 Brave Spartacus(142) (KReveley (in GB)) - .. 10,10
33625 16 Rathlin (GB)(142) (MFMorris) - . .................... 10,10
13f12 17 Rawnaq(142) (MJSmith) - . ............................ 10,10
5-pf0 18 Shanahan's Turn(142) (Hde Bromhead) ....... 10,10
73-11 19 Jacksonslady(141) (JPDempsey) - . ............. 10,09
53265 20 Foildubh(140) (JPRyan) - . ............................ 10,08
2110- 21 It's A Gimme(140) (JO'Neill (in GB)) - ............ 10,08
22f31 22 Letter Of Credit(140) (JJMangan) - . ............. 10,08
1D-20 23 Sadler's Risk(140) (Hde Bromhead) ............. 10,08
31-5- 24 The Paparrazi Kid(140) (WPMullins) ............ 10,08
4-603 25 Art Of Logistics(139) (Ms.SHughes) ............ 10,07
26 Conquisto (GB)(139) (BEllison (in GB)) ........ 10,07
-4p4u 27 Perfect Gentleman(139) (WPMullins) ............ 10,07
301p8 28 Gold Bullet(138) (TJTaaffe) - . ....................... 10,06
51233 29 Upazo (FR)(137) (WPMullins) - . .................... 10,05
63-24 30 Byerley Babe(136) (RTyner) - . ...................... 10,04
66-p6 31 Cantlow(136) (PWebber (in GB)) - . ............... 10,04
32 Silver Man (GB)(136) (JHughes (in GB)) ....... 10,04
22413 33 Your Busy(136) (JANash) - . .......................... 10,04
2211u 34 Akorakor (FR)(135) (GElliott) - . ..................... 10,03
3p9-4 35 Balnaslow(135) (WPMullins) - . ..................... 10,03
-11-2 36 Devils Bride(135) (WPMullins) - .................... 10,03
4311p 37 Fort Smith(135) (GElliott) - . ........................... 10,03
01192 38 Horendus Hulabaloo(135) (MFMorris) - ....... 10,03
0-005 39 Klepht(135) (TMullins) - . ................................ 10,03
-432f 40 Leavethelighton(135) (EDoyle) - . ................. 10,03
p2111 41 Ravished(135) (MFMorris) - . ......................... 10,03
001-0 42 Usuel Smurfer (FR)(135) (JJHanlon) ............ 10,03
29333 43 Bless The Wings(133) (GElliott) - . ................ 10,01
//47- 44 Gray Hession(133) (JO'Neill (in GB)). ............ 10,01
7-314 45 Ronava(133) (RACotter) - . ............................ 10,01
14244 46 Urano (FR)(132) (WPMullins) - . ..................... 10,00
f23-0 47 Un Beau Roman (FR)(131) (WPMullins) ......... 9,13
1110- 48 Rum And Butter(130) (JO'Neill (in GB)) ......... 9,12
32211 49 Shesaportrait(130) (PNeville) - . ..................... 9,12
386f3 50 Bishops Road(129) (Hde Bromhead) ............. 9,11
f-212 51 Rohan's Pride(129) (RHonner) - . ................... 9,11
230-3 52 Rough Justice(129) (WPMullins) - ................. 9,11
-puf6 53 Silver Tassie(129) (NMeade) - . ...................... 9,11
49121 54 Abolitionist(128) (JJHanlon) - . ...................... 9,10
50-9p 55 Benemeade(127) (NMeade) - . ....................... 9,09
5-019 56 Aranhill Chief(123) (SJMahon) - . ................... 9,05
u1363 57 Perfect Promise(123) (JJMangan) - . ............. 9,05
-9318 58 Protaras (USA)(122) (NMeade) - . .................. 9,04
34142 59 Harangue(108) (PJGilligan) - . .......................


The Willie Mullins trained Boston Bob (11-10) is the top weight for the €220,000 feature, but that is still seven pounds below the rating achieved following his defeat of First Lieutenant in the Punchestown Gold Cup of 2014.

Rebel Fitz is the fly in the ointment among the top weights. In five runs at Ballybrit, Michael Winters’ stable star has won four times and finished runner up in the other. Now a ten-year-old, Rebel Fitz took the 2013 renewal of the Galway Hurdle from Cause Of Causes, but has had some niggling injury troubles in the past 15 months and hasn’t seen racecourse action since last October.

Tony Martin’s pair of Savello, which returned to winning ways last time, and 2014 festival winner Ted Veale will find the two and three quarter mile trip taxing their stamina, while of the cross channel raiders Jonjo O’Neill’s Its A Gimmie ran a fine race when runner up to another cross channel entrant Brave Spartacus in last Saturday’s Summer Plate at Market Rasen. If the latter turns up, a fast tempo is assured from flag fall.

The David Pipe trained Dell Arca though is worth a closer look although he has only ran three times over fences, winning a class three event at Uttoxeter last time in late May. However, it is his length and a half defeat by Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Coneygree at Newbury last November that is the stand out form, even if a 22 runner cavalry charge that the Plate is will be a far cry from a five runner field irrespective of who wins it.



Alelchi Inois has been towards the head of the ante post market since the entries were revealed and this economic jumper is a dual course winner over the two and a quarter mile trip. He returned to action for the first time since last November with a defeat of Bayan when well supported for a conditions hurdle at Cork three weeks ago.

Pulled up twice in graded company late last year, underfoot conditions would not have suited Alechi Inois then and he will be a live player along with his stable companion Ballinaslow, which caught the eye behind Ravished in the recent Midlands National at Kilbeggan.

Third off a similar mark behind Road To Riches in last year’s renewal, all his racecourse wins have come on right handed tracks. Back down to the same mark as in 2014, Ballinaslow would have been closer to the winner but for getting into the bottom of the final fence and losing momentum in the process. He can go close.

The one to concentrate though is the Phillip Dempsey trained Jacksonslady whose mark of 141 leaves her just four pounds higher then when a battling nine length third in the 2013 Plate behind ‘handicap snip’ Carlingford Lough.

A closer examination of the JP McManus owned mare’s form though tells us that she runs well fresh, therefore an absence since beating Upazo by five lengths at level weights over two miles at the Punchestown festival is not of great concern. A winner over the course and distance in the Latin Quarter Chase at last year’s meeting, she was ridden then by Barry Geraghty, who is now the retained rider for the McManus operation.

 

[mayo]

The Hurdle

(4:45) 199F Guinness Galway H'dle H'cap (Grade A)
€180,500.00 ( 2m - 4yo+ )[MAX 20]
NHFrm
334-1 1 Diakali (FR)(153) (WPMullins) - ..................... 11,05
-2722 2 Thousand Stars (FR)(153) (WPMullins) - . .... 11,05
8-0p1 3 Wicklow Brave (GB)(153) (WPMullins) - . ..... 11,05
-6432 4 Bayan(150) (GElliott) - . .................................. 11,02
51-00 5 Thomas Edison(146) (AJMartin) - . ............... 10,12
37932 6 Ted Veale(144) (AJMartin) - . ......................... 10,10
13f12 7 Rawnaq(143) (MJSmith) - . ............................ 10,09
33112 8 The Game Changer(143) (GElliott) - . ............ 10,09
-0242 9 Macnicholson(139) (MrsJHarrington) - . ........ 10,05
1-03p 10 Rich Coast (GB)(139) (NMeade) - . ............... 10,05
-u221 11 Marchese Marconi(138) (APO'Brien) - . ........ 10,04
-5037 12 Plinth(138) (APO'Brien) - ............................... 10,04
1/- 13 Stephanie Frances(138) (DSkelton (in GB))
- .......................................... 10,04
2-163 14 Hidden Cyclone(137) (JJHanlon) - . .............. 10,03
04-00 15 Hisaabaat(137) (DKWeld) - . .......................... 10,03
-44f7 16 Max Dynamite (FR)(136) (WPMullins) - . ....... 10,02
1-3-3 17 Quick Jack(136) (AJMartin) - . ....................... 10,02
61-01 18 Snake Eyes(136) (NHenderson (in GB)) - . .... 10,02
55621 19 Aminabad (FR)(135) (WPMullins) - . .............. 10,01
1p-1 20 Rae's Creek (GB)(135) (MrsJHarrington) - .... 10,01
732p1 21 Arnaud(134) (CByrnes) - . .............................. 10,00
3-220 22 Modem (GB)(134) (MrsJHarrington) - . .......... 10,00
-p00- 23 Coffee(133) (EBolger) - . ................................. 9,13
5-7f2 24 Draco (GB)(133) (APO'Brien) - . ...................... 9,13
30-21 25 Pyromaniac(133) (AJMartin) - . ....................... 9,13
463p1 26 Savello(133) (AJMartin) - . .............................. 9,13
27 Song Light (GB)(133) (SMullins (in GB)) - . .... 9,13
7-b23 28 Clondaw Warrior(132) (WPMullins) - . ............ 9,12
61- 29 Manhattan Swing(132) (BEllison (in GB)) -
. ............................................ 9,12
01011 30 Some Article(132) (TMullins) - . ...................... 9,12
4-4u5 31 The Plan Man(132) (AJMartin) - . .................... 9,12
23009 32 Western Boy(132) (PAFahy) - . ...................... 9,12
15-34 33 Tandem (GB)(130) (DKWeld) - . ..................... 9,10
-2016 34 Cape Glory(129) (GElliott) - . .......................... 9,09
0p-9- 35 Gambling Girl(129) (MrsJHarrington) - . ......... 9,09
2-350 36 Mr Diablo(129) (JPDempsey) - . ..................... 9,09
1110- 37 Rum And Butter(129) (JO'Neill (in GB)) - . ..... 9,09
1-10p 38 Knight's Parade(128) (GElliott) - . .................. 9,08
5209- 39 Swnymor(128) (JQuinn (in GB)) - . ................. 9,08
40 Kie(127) (DPipe (in GB)) - . ............................. 9,07
f1211 41 Tempo Mac(126) (GElliott) - . .......................... 9,06
41611 42 Riviera Sun(125) (Hde Bromhead) - . ............. 9,05
32222 43 Vercingetorix(130) (GElliott) - . ...................... 9,04
-0002 44 Dalasiri(122) (SJHarty) - . ............................... 9,02
2u111 45 Eshtiaal (USA)(120) (GElliott) - ...................... 9,00
4311p 46 Fort Smith(118) (GElliott) - . ........................... 8,12
47 Tea In Transvaal(123) (EWilliams (in GB)) -
. ........................................... 8,11
32224 48 Seeyouallincoppers(115) (GElliott) - . ........... 8,09

Tony Martin targets Galway Hurdle with Thomas Edison and Quick Jack
Shrewd trainer’s Galway fortunes have improved dramatically in recent years

Tony McCoy on board Thomas Edison celebrates winning The Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Ballybrit last year. Photograph: Cathal Noonan/Inpho
Tony McCoy on board Thomas Edison celebrates winning The Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Ballybrit last year. Photograph: Cathal Noonan/Inpho

Brian O'Connor

Dermot Weld is renowned as the ‘King of Ballybrit’ but Tony Martin could again threaten his reign at next week’s €1.8 million Galway festival and the Co Meath trainer appears to have the richest National Hunt race ever run in Ireland firmly in his sights.
The Martin-trained Thomas Edison famously landed a gamble under Tony McCoy in last year’s Guinness Galway Hurdle and the JP McManus-owned star is set to try and become just the second horse to win the festival highlight back-to-back.
Pinch Hitter managed the double in 1982-83 but the 50th year of Guinness’s sponsorship of the Day Four festival feature is being marked with a €50,000 prizemoney injection which takes the Hurdle fund to €300,000.
The prospect of Martin targeting such a big money handicap has bookmakers taking no chances as the famously shrewd trainer also has the general 8-1 Galway Hurdle favourite, Quick Jack, as well as four other entries including Savello who however is more likely tackle the Tote.com Galway Plate over fences.

“All going well, Thomas Edison will go back for the Hurdle. Hopefully he’s at the stage he’s at the stage he was last year,” said Martin who also landed 2014’s big amateur festival prize, the Connacht Hotel Handicap with Quick Jack.
In his three runs since, Quick Jack has been placed in the English Cesarewitch, Cheltenham’s County Hurdle and May’s Chester Cup.
Great run
“It was a great run at Chester. He’s like Thomas Edison – he’s been performing well for the last year and a half. He had a good run in the Cesarewitch so I suppose he’s entitled to be up there in betting. Fingers crossed we get both of them there,” he added.
Martin’s Galway fortunes have jumped spectacularly forward in recent years. Half a dozen winners in 2014 was just three shy of Weld’s tally while in 2013 Martin secured a remarkable nine winners, only two off Weld who has picked up the leading trainer award at the festival for the last 28 years.
Pyromaniac could fly the Martin flag in this year’s Connacht Hotel Handicap. “At the moment we’ve a few nice ones to go. Savello is in the Plate and all going well he’ll have a crack at that,” said the trainer.
Another JP McManus-owned star, Kitten Rock, tops the Galway Hurdle weights, leaving Thomas Edison currently with 10.10 on his back. He beat the Gordon Elliott trained pair, Bayan and The Game Changer, 12 months ago and all three are set to renew rivalry again.
Elliott said: “They are in very good form. They would like a bit of nice ground and we’ll just have to keep them ticking over. They were second and third last year so we know they like the track and that is a big plus.”
The 2012 Hurdle winner Rebel Fitz has been beaten just once in his last ten starts, but the last of those was in October. Nevertheless his trainer Mick Winters has given him entries in both the Hurdle and the Plate and appears to be favouring the smaller obstacle option for his stable star.
Winning effort
“He is well over three quarters ready and we have to push on now and see if he is up to being in the money – he won’t run just for the sake of it. He is in top form and is a horse with no mileage up,” Winters said.

Hidden Cyclone’s sole previous start at Galway was over fences in 2013 but after a recent winning effort on the flat, he is as low as 10-1 for the big hurdle prize and trainer ‘Shark’ Hanlon is feeling positive.
“The Leopardstown run has really sharpened him up and I think he goes there with a big shout,” said Hannon.

 

[Istabraq]

Thanks Mayo.
I read the top weights have a shocking record in the Plate and Boston Bob must be one of the most unreliable horses in that catagory to have contested this race in recent years, surely opposable ?
Indevan looks an interesting runner....

 

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Proper prize money in those races.

Marito - wasnt he suppposed to be Djakadam before Djakadam ?

Colour Squadron gone to Bolger

Boston Bob I can never get right. Two good runs after a wind op and nothing since.

 

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Quick Jack of 10 2 looks like a Tony Martin special.

 

[Morning Glory]

Rebel Fitz might run in a conditions chase rather than Plate. Won't run in the Hurdle.

 

[mayo]

Bachasson time soon.

 

[Lester]

Mile Winners

Date	Winner	Odds	Trainer	Age	Weight	OR	Jockey	Going	Stall
29.07.2014	Vastonea (IRE)	12/1	Prendergast, Kevin	6	8-5	89	Halpin, G P	Good	10
30.07.2013	Brendan Brackan (IRE)	10/1	Lyons, G M	4	9-6	104	Keane, C T	Yielding	10
31.07.2012	Vastonea (IRE)	7/1	Prendergast, Kevin	4	9-0	89	McDonogh, D P	Soft	6
26.07.2011	Stunning View (IRE)	7/1	Weld, D K	4	9-5	98	Smullen, P J	Good	4
27.07.2010	Ask Jack (USA)	9/1	Murphy, Joseph G	6	8-11	90	Hayes, C D	Good	2
28.07.2009	Rock And Roll Kid (IRE)	6/1	Mullins, Anthony	4	8-13	97	Mullins, D E	Soft To Heavy	16
29.07.2008	Celtic Dane (IRE)	7/1	Prendergast, Kevin	4	9-1	94	Hayes, C D	Yielding To Soft	8
31.07.2007	Incline (IRE)	25/1	McGlinchey, R	8	8-2	84	Moran, D J	Good To Yielding	4
1.08.2006	Quinmaster (USA)	8/1	Halford, M	4	9-0	93	Murtagh, J	Good To Yielding	7
26.07.2005	Latino Magic (IRE)	9/1	Osborne, R J	5	9-9	102	Burke, R M	Good To Firm	13
27.07.2004	Palace Star (IRE)	7/1	Casey, Peter	3	7-7	89	Cleary, R P	Good To Firm	1
29.07.2003	Eklim (IRE)	10/1	Prendergast, Kevin	3	8-12	101	McDonogh, D P	Soft	6
30.07.2002	Vinthea (IRE)	8/1	Burns, J G	3	7-10	90	Houlihan, T M	Soft	18
31.07.2001	Sheer Tenby (IRE)	20/1	Roche, Paul A	4	8-7	87	ODonoghue, C	Good To Yielding	2
1.08.2000	Tushna (IRE)	16/1	Bolger, J S	3	7-7	93	Queally, T P	Good To Yielding	1
27.07.1999	Tiger Shark (USA)	6/1	Bolger, J S	3	9-2	105	Manning, K J	Good	18
28.07.1998	Free To Speak (IRE)	14/1	Weld, D K	6	9-10	94	Kinane, M J	Yielding	13
29.07.1997	Wray (IRE)	8/1	Browne, Liam	5	8-9	0	Craine, S	Yielding	12

<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col span="3"><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

Kevin Prendergast has a fine record and taking the 10/1 about Vastonea. galway form is 131 and won here last year of 89. Gets in of 90 after this year.

 

[Old Vic]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">They are jocked up for 2015 <a href="https://twitter.com/Galway_Races">@Galway_Races</a> Plate. Alelchi Inois favourite. Bookies undecided on best of JP McManus 5. <a href="http://t.co/zP7Crc2m5P">pic.twitter.com/zP7Crc2m5P</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/625977485029711872">July 28, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[mayo]

Long Dog one for the to follow thread

 

[Morning Glory]

Long Dog one for the to follow thread

agree 100% Mayo. Mullins said and tweeted as much after the race.

 

[mayo]

Donns Tip for the Plate


However, at a much bigger price, Sadler’s Risk may be the value of the race. The Sadler’s Wells gelding has had plenty of racing, but he is still only seven years old and he is lightly raced over fences.

A close-up fourth behind subsequent Group 1 winners Treasure Beach and Nathaniel in the Chester Vase for Mark Johnston as a three-year-old, and sixth in the Triumph Hurdle as a juvenile hurdler when with Philip Hobbs, he has shaped nicely over hurdles on several occasions since joining Henry de Bromhead, but has looked even more exciting over fences.

He was most impressive in winning his beginners’ chase at Roscommon in May last year on his chasing bow, and he travelled like the most likely winner for a long way in a good Grade 3 contest at Cork in November on his second run over fences. The Drinmore Chase was all a bit much for him on his next run but, as with Alelchi Inois, the fact that his astute trainer allowed him take his chance in the race was a positive.

He hasn’t run over fences since, but he has run well over hurdles twice, and his trainer has obviously kept him fresh with this race in mind. He races today off a chase mark of 140, the same as his current mark over hurdles and 10lb lower than his peak, but he shapes as if he can be a better chaser than hurdler. He has only raced three times over fences, he still has lots of scope for progression as a chaser.

He goes well on good ground and, while he has never run at Galway, he is at his best going right-handed. All his good runs over hurdles in Britain were at Kempton and Ascot, and his best runs in Ireland have been at Roscommon, Punchestown and Cork – all right-handed tracks.

He is at the right end of the weights, he is set to carry 10st 8lb in a race in which the last nine winners have carried 10st 13lb or less. He could be a fair bit better over fences than his handicap rating suggests and could run a big race today at a decent price.

 

[Old Vic]

a familar horse out tomorrow

No Horse Owner Trainer Rider Wgt
1 Sandymount Duke(133) R.Wood (MrsJHarrington) Robbie Power 11,12
2 Fearachain(126) Mrs. Sandra McCarthy (AMullins) Danny Mullins 11,06
3 Full Cry Garristown Aintree Syndicate (Hde Bromhead) AELynch(T) 11,06
4 Gangster (FR) Gigginstown House Stud (WPMullins) RWalsh 11,06
5 Bay Of Freedom Paul Leech (PFahey) Barry Geraghty 11,02
6 Butney Rock (GB)(109) Cathal M. McGovern (CAMcBratney) MrNMcParlan(5)(C) 11,02
7 Credo Star(121) Sport Racing Club (PFahey) JJBurke 11,02
8 Grecian Tiger J Higgins (DKWeld) Davy Russell(V) 11,02
9 Six Men Or Dooley Boom Boom Syndicate (DJRyan) TGMRyan 11,02
10 Survival M F Burke (NLee) .(CT) 11,02

 

[Bayoffreedom]

a familar horse out tomorrow

No Horse Owner Trainer Rider Wgt
1 Sandymount Duke(133) R.Wood (MrsJHarrington) Robbie Power 11,12
2 Fearachain(126) Mrs. Sandra McCarthy (AMullins) Danny Mullins 11,06
3 Full Cry Garristown Aintree Syndicate (Hde Bromhead) AELynch(T) 11,06
4 Gangster (FR) Gigginstown House Stud (WPMullins) RWalsh 11,06
5 Bay Of Freedom Paul Leech (PFahey) Barry Geraghty 11,02
6 Butney Rock (GB)(109) Cathal M. McGovern (CAMcBratney) MrNMcParlan(5)(C) 11,02
7 Credo Star(121) Sport Racing Club (PFahey) JJBurke 11,02
8 Grecian Tiger J Higgins (DKWeld) Davy Russell(V) 11,02
9 Six Men Or Dooley Boom Boom Syndicate (DJRyan) TGMRyan 11,02
10 Survival M F Burke (NLee) .(CT) 11,02

Well spotted there Old Vic - just logged in to let everyone know. Gangster looks very useful but, with the others giving weight away, it could be interesting. He seems very well and we expect him to run with much more spark than at Down Royal. Distance and course are ideal and the forecast is pretty good. Hopefully we'll see what he can do tomorrow. Very happy to have Barry Geraghty on board - won't be lacking for anything from the saddle.

ps Timeform just put up early prices: Bay of Freedom is 11/1 but the staggering one is Gangster who they have at 5/1! He will start at odds on in my opinion. That would be a good omen: we won the last time a Gigginstown horse started odds on

 

[Old Vic]

^thanks for update BOF.

Mullins has unleased some serious talent this week.


Any plate fancies today ?

FWIW I have gone with Alderwood. Ran well in Irish National and feasibly handicapped. 25s too big imo.

 

[Old Vic]

Landed some place monies today. think Hidden cyclone the each way value tomorrow. deep race.

 

[Ballybeen]

Well predicted BOF, Gangster as short as 8/15, Bay of Freedom as big as 25/1. Good luck.

 

[Old Vic]

Ruby


I thought there were only three or four horses in the Galway Plate that were unexposed and it was easy to put a line through a number of them, but I think it’s very hard to rule horses out of the Galway Hurdle.

Of Willie’s five runners, you’d have to think the two-mile trip would be too sharp for Thousand Stars. He looks to be a better horse over further, but the other four have their chances. Aminabad won well last week at Ballinrobe, and got the penalty he needed to get into this race. He’ll love the ground, and should go well.

Max Dynamite’s Northumberland Plate form looks very good, but his jumps form has not been as strong. He needs to jump slicker than he has in the past if he’s to get competitive.

Wicklow Brave was stunning in the Country Hurdle, at the Cheltenham Festival, and his few runs on the flat have been very good. Obviously he didn’t stay in Ascot, but you can’t hold that against him, and he has an outstanding chance.

But I’ve gone for Diakali. I think he probably has the ability to be placed in a Champion Hurdle, which means running to a rating of 163 or 164, and he’s running in today’s race off a mark of 153.

I would have loved it to have started raining about six o’clock yesterday evening. That would suit down to the ground, as he handles soft ground, and plenty of them wouldn’t. But, he won on fast ground at Tipperary, and so we won’t be using that as an excuse.

I know he has top weight, but it’s a limited handicap (11-07 to 10-01), so I won’t be too worried about that either, and he’s in great form. I’m very hopeful of a big run.

Of the others, Thomas Edison has to be respected. When you look at the replay of last year’s race, you see he bolted in. He came off the bend and AP (McCoy) had to take a pull on him. Barry (Geraghty) rides him today, and he definitely has a chance.

Quick Jack scooted home in the GPT (Qualified Riders’ race) here last year, and he, too, has a massive chance, off a low weight. Marchese Marconi also has a life, but there is an unbelievable number of horses with a chance. It’s a race with €300,000 in prize-money, and great to see it has the field to back it up.

Elsewhere on the card, I get the opportunity to ride two horses I wouldn’t otherwise be on, as Gigginstown House’s retained rider, Bryan Cooper, is still sidelined. One of those is As De Ferbet, who runs in the beginners’ chase, over two mile six.

On form he’d have a really good chance, but whether or not he really wants ground as fast as he’ll have to contend with today is the concern. He was placed in a similar race at Punchestown on New Year’s Day, but that was on really testing ground. He made his comeback at Kilbeggan a couple of weeks ago and, while he went on the quicker ground there, I’m not sure it’s exactly what he wants.

He jumped really well at Kilbeggan and should run a good race.

In the Guinness Novice Hurdle, Gangster was very impressive when he won in Roscommon. We think he’s a really nice horse, and our other novices this week won well so we’d be hopeful he could keep that going. I rode him in work earlier in the week and he gave me a nice feel. He’s definitely going the right direction, and should go very close.

 

[racecaller13]

The Guinness Galway Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth day of the Galway Festival on Thursday 30th July. A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive and in recent years it has paid to look for a less exposed type that had won recently over hurdles.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-3-14

5yo: 2-7-42

6yo: 5-10-56

7yo: 3-5-44

8yo: 0-3-25

9yo+: 0-2-15

The last 10 winners were aged 5 to 7



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 7-11-94

Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 3-19-102

Horses carrying 10-7+ have won 7 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing less than half of the total runners.

Top Weight: 66P0028707 (0-1-10)

Horses carrying a penalty (1-2-8) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 8 runners.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 131 or higher: 5-13-93

Horses rated 120 to 130: 5-14-91

Horses rated 119 or less: 0-3-12

The shape of the ratings for this race has changed in recent years, with higher rated horses contesting the race, so the figures over past 10 years have less relevance.

Over past 5 years:

Horses rated 135 or higher: 4-9-51

Horses rated 134 or lower: 1-6-48

Horses rated 135+ have won 4 of last 5 and filled 13 of 20 places in last 5 runnings.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts

6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 flat, 2 over hurdles)

10 of 10 winners posted their career high hurdles RPR on one of last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles start (8 of last 9 posted RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 runs)

10 of 10 winners had had 6 to 15 previous hurdle starts

8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (2 exceptions ran in 10 or 11)

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over hurdles

6 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat

8 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 10K+



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Thomas Edison): F029 (0-1-4)

Grimes Hurdle winner (Diakali): 6281 (1-1-4)

Win A Meerkat Toy Hurdle winner (Rae's Creek): 2 (0-1-1)

Kilashee Handicap Hurdle winner (Some Article): 300 (0-1-3)

County Hurdle winner (Wicklow Brave): 8 (0-0-1)

Dolores Purcell Memorial Nov H´dle winner (Rich Coast): 000 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Easyfix Rubber Products Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in a 2m Cork novice hurdle the previous October

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in Grimes Hurdle on last hurdles start, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Daily Mail H'cap at Curragh Guineas meeting, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in Ladies Derby at Curragh, finishing 34



Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders

3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division

1 of 10 winners were held up in rear



Trainers

Michael Winters (2-0-3) trained Rebel Fitz & Missunited to win back to back runnings in 2012 & 2013.

Tony Martin (1-2-8) won this with Thomas Edison in 2014.

Noel Meade (1-0-13) won this in 2005 with More Rainbows.

Gordon Elliot (0-6-13) has seen 6 of his 13 runners make the places, including the runner-up in 2012, 2013 & 2014 and also the 3rd in 2011 & 2010.

Willie Mullins (0-4-14) has gained 4 places (including 3rd & 4th in 2013) from his 14 runners since 2005.

Jessica Harrington (0-2-5) & Eddie O’Grady (0-2-7) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers in past 10 runnings.

Thomas Mullins (0-1-6) and Dermot Weld (0-1-11) have each managed 1 placed finisher since 2005.

British based trainers (1-1-19) have gained 1 win & 1 place from their 19 runners.



Price

No very strong trends on prices, however 7 of last 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter while the other 3 were priced between 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (2-5-10) have won twice in past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Carrying 10-6+

- Officially rated 135 to 147

- Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts

- Posted a career high RPR of 133+ in last 3 hurdles starts

- Won or placed on last hurdles start (posting an RPR of 125+)

- Run in past 40 days

- Had prep run on flat last time (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)

- Previously run in 7 to 15 hurdles races (winning 1 to 4)

- Has run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)

- Finished in first 2 in Easyfix Rubber Products Novice Hurdle and/or Grimes Hurdle

- Ran well in a Curragh handicap on the flat in 2015

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Michael Winters, Tony Martin or Gordon Elliot
- See more at: http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/...e-trends-2015-1437583303#sthash.CttLg0x4.dpuf

 

[Lester]

Gordon Elliot (0-6-13) has seen 6 of his 13 runners make the places, including the runner-up in 2012, 2013 & 2014 and also the 3rd in 2011 & 2010.

That is an outstanding stat. Bayan has a tidy claimer on in young Jack Kennedy but passed over in favour of The Game Changer at 16s with 5 places.