Fox Hunters Chase 2018

[Deleted member 4957]

Remember having a small fortune on Morning Assembly in the RSA few years back, look a little further back and he has the scalp of Don Cossack.
Certainly brings class...

 

[paz247]

Not eligible for Cheltenham this year though

yeah saw that Kevloaf, shame, but next year and year after maybe? Unless Staker Wallace turns out to be a monster

 

[archie]

Only 5 weeks to get a qualification for some including Staker Wallace. Burning Ambition would also probably want to improve his rating to be sure of a run although he'd likely get one of the 'wild cards' anyway.

 

[paz247]

Only 5 weeks to get a qualification for some including Staker Wallace. Burning Ambition would also probably want to improve his rating to be sure of a run although he'd likely get one of the 'wild cards' anyway.

How does qualification work archie? I thought with the HC’s only starting in Jan it would be up to end of Feb? They said BA is defo qualified?

 

[archie]

How does qualification work archie? I thought with the HC’s only starting in Jan it would be up to end of Feb? They said BA is defo qualified?

Qualification is by, in something like the last 3 years up to 28/2/18:
winning 2 open PtP
or
being first or second on 2 occasions in hunter chases
or
won 1 open PtP plus first or second in a hunter chase

All qualifiers are rated by the handicapper but there are plenty of qualifiers and a rating in the low 130s is usually required to get in although the handicapper does have discretion for a couple of wild cards. This is where Burning Ambition may have a problem because, although he was visually impressive, a guy whose view I respect reckons that he didn't beat much the last time and probably didn't rate more than mid 120s.

 

[Scooby91]

Foxrock, a leading fancy for the Foxhunter Chase, made a pleasing first start since joining Alan Fleming at Thurles on Sunday – but the trainer has reservations about his Cheltenham prospects.

He said: "He ran well but had a very hard race; I hope it doesn’t leave a mark. The plan is to go to Punchestown next and then the Foxhunter but he’s big horse who probably needs soft ground.

"He’s been over to Cheltenham twice and not really acted there."

 

[somer1]

Not eligible for Cheltenham this year though

Thanx Kev was going to ask that question as had a small lump on yesterday

 

[Kevloaf]

Thanx Kev was going to ask that question as had a small lump on yesterday

I backed Foxrock yesterday.... got very exciting for a little moment... but I think race fitness told!

Well done on the win.


Interesting that they're not really thinking about Cheltenham.... well beaten in the 4 miler and Ryanair with no excuses from what I can see though so sounds about right... although pretty hard to find any meaningful comments

 

[paz247]

Qualification is by, in something like the last 3 years up to 28/2/18:
winning 2 open PtP
or
being first or second on 2 occasions in hunter chases
or
won 1 open PtP plus first or second in a hunter chase

Surely then if it’s 28/2/18 Gilgamboa and BA should be qualified? Not knocking your info by the way Archie just seems surprising with the way you have explained it that they aren’t or may not be in BA case

 

[Scooby91]

Qualification is by, in something like the last 3 years up to 28/2/18:
winning 2 open PtP
or
being first or second on 2 occasions in hunter chases
or
won 1 open PtP plus first or second in a hunter chase

Surely then if it’s 28/2/18 Gilgamboa and BA should be qualified? Not knocking your info by the way Archie just seems surprising with the way you have explained it that they aren’t or may not be in BA case

Burning ambition is qualified but like Archie said that dosen mean he will get straight in as it goes by ratings and hes rqn in lowly contests thus far. But also correct on wildcard.

In a recent Q&A session with the PPORA, Head Handicapper Phil Smith repeats that he does not consider point-to-point form when assessing ratings for the Festival's 'Amateur Gold Cup', although he does review pointing form and can offer one, and only ONE, wild card entry to a horse who has been making tsunamis on the pointing circuit.

Gilgamboa is not qualified because he's placed in a graded race fairly recently. Same position as fox rock was in last year

13Nov16

Nav*2m*Y/Sft*ChG2 2/6*

 

[Viking Flagship]

I’ve put this in here so as not to throw the Mares thread off track, but this is in response to Middle Of March’s post in there about what he considers to be the top 5 ‘bankers’. For someone with limited knowledge of the Hunter/PTP scene I was just really interested in the reasons Burning Ambition can be considered a banker and wondered if MOM (or anyone else for that matter) can make a reasoned argument as to why he’s pretty much nailed on to win this? It’s not every day you hear someone refer to an 8/1 shot as a banker! This is in no way having a dig, I’m genuinely intrigued by the reasons why anyone might think he’s more likely to win than, say, Buveur D’Air in the CH.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ve put this in here so as not to throw the Mares thread off track, but this is in response to Middle Of March’s post in there about what he considers to be the top 5 ‘bankers’. For someone with limited knowledge of the Hunter/PTP scene I was just really interested in the reasons Burning Ambition can be considered a banker and wondered if MOM (or anyone else for that matter) can make a reasoned argument as to why he’s pretty much nailed on to win this? It’s not every day you hear someone refer to an 8/1 shot as a banker! This is in no way having a dig, I’m genuinely intrigued by the reasons why anyone might think he’s more likely to win than, say, Buveur D’Air in the CH.

Banker was probably the wrong word. I should’ve rephrased it to which horses was I most confident about winning their races. Bur inf Ambition was in 5th for my order whereas Buveur D’Air wasn’t in my top 5. That’s only because I feel if Faugheen comes right, he will beat him.


Whereas, from everything I’ve seen on Burning Ambition, he looks a bit of a monster. Someone who is an expert in the hunter chase game said a few months back to watch out for this horse (he had hardly run at that point) as it’s the best hunter he had ever seen. I didn’t back the horse as I had never done an antepost bet on the foxhunters before. However, when he won at Christmas, I went in to see more about the horse. From everything I’ve seen, he really does look the real deal. I genuinely believe he will go off something silly like 6/4 on the day.

I can only give my honest opinion and that is, for me, he’s the best bet of the entire festival at 8/1 right now. Wonderful Charm is the only threat in my eyes. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But you have to be brave and put your neck on the line in this sport. I’ve said since the end of May that September would win the 2018 Oaks. I stand by that. I will look a fool in many places if I am wrong. I also said One For Arthur was a grand national winner when he won at Warwick last year. That looked great when he romped Home and dozens of people were messaging me to say thanks. Just a month before, I looked extremely foolish as alpha Des Obeaux didn’t place in the RSA. I was adamant he would run a huge race. The point is, I’ll stand by my convictions and my gut instinct. On this one, Burning Ambition will win the Foxhunters.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Fair play MOM. Absolutely agree that it's important to back your own judgement. They won't all come off because there are so many variables in the sport, but in the long run I think it's a healthy approach.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Fair play MOM. Absolutely agree that it's important to back your own judgement. They won't all come off because there are so many variables in the sport, but in the long run I think it's a healthy approach.

Don’t get me wrong, if he loses, I’ll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong. No point ignoring the losers and moving on. Would rather take the criticism for being confident as well as the praise when they win. That’s the way it should be.

From what I currently know, the 10s I took NRNB is crazy. The 8s is still a big price. My biggest fear is that I get a bad amateur on board. But I’m hopeful that when he’s backed into a short price, one of the top amateurs gets the nod instead.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Don’t get me wrong, if he loses, I’ll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong. No point ignoring the losers and moving on. Would rather take the criticism for being confident as well as the praise when they win. That’s the way it should be.

From what I currently know, the 10s I took NRNB is crazy. The 8s is still a big price. My biggest fear is that I get a bad amateur on board. But I’m hopeful that when he’s backed into a short price, one of the top amateurs gets the nod instead.

Don't know who Mr R James is, but he hasn't built a bad rapport with the horse, so if he was on board I wouldn't view this as a negative either.

I noted, listed as an owner is 'Magnier' this wouldn't be the same 'Magnier' who owns/part owns the Coolmore Stud and a host of world class flat horses would it?

 

[Innoko]

Burning Ambition is by Scorpion.

That would put me off....like it did Might Bite last year :highly_amused:

In fairness, he did look a nice Hunter Chaser last time, but past winners of that maiden haven't done so well at Cheltenham.

Reference owner... JP Magnier, so i would presume so.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Don't know who Mr R James is, but he hasn't built a bad rapport with the horse, so if he was on board I wouldn't view this as a negative either.

I noted, listed as an owner is 'Magnier' this wouldn't be the same 'Magnier' who owns/part owns the Coolmore Stud and a host of world class flat horses would it?

I’m not sure tbh. Suppose it’s possinke.

As for the jockey, I guess you are correct in that at least he’d have a decent relationship with the horse. That’s a positive. .

 

[paz247]

Burning ambition is qualified but like Archie said that dosen mean he will get straight in as it goes by ratings and hes rqn in lowly contests thus far. But also correct on wildcard.



Gilgamboa is not qualified because he's placed in a graded race fairly recently. Same position as fox rock was in last year

Thanks Scooby, let’s hope he gets the wildcard

 

[archie]

Hopefully he'll get an entry for Leopardstown and get the chance to lift his rating.

My tame expert reckons that there's no outstanding candidate yet so the February points and hunter chases will bear close scrutiny.

 

[Scooby91]

Burning ambition is qualified but like Archie said that dosen mean he will get straight in as it goes by ratings and hes rqn in lowly contests thus far. But also correct on wildcard.



Gilgamboa is not qualified because he's placed in a graded race fairly recently. Same position as fox rock was in last year

Thanks Scooby, let’s hope he gets the wildcard

Pretty sure hes running again im a more competative race i saw it somewhere