Festival Handicap Chase 2014 ( Old William Hill)

[mayo]

First one to consider

Forget that Kempton quote for Restless Harry. Robin Dickin says he goes for the Festival Handicap Chase next. First quote 14/1 @stanjames

 

[Old Vic]

Our Stats at

http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham...s.php?Festival-Handicap-Chase-2014-Trends-114

 

[Old Vic]

Festival Handicap Chase Facts and Figures (since 1946)
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The Festival Handicap Chase was sponsored between 1981 and 1996 by the Ritz Club. Astec Buzz Shop backed the race in 1997, with William Hill being the sponsor from 1998 to 2010. Leading owner Andy Stewart and his family were the backers in 2011 in support of Spinal Research. JLT (Jardine Lloyd Thompson) took over the sponsorship in 2012, before switching in 2014 to the JLT Novices’ Chase on St Patrick’s Thursday of The Festival.

FIELD SIZE
The smallest field was seven in 1993 and the largest field of 24 lined up in 1963, 2010 and 2013. The current safety limit is 24.

WEIGHTS
Future Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Silver Fame carried the welter burden of 12st 7lb to victory in 1950, while Tipping Tim (1992), Maamur (1996) and Alfie Sherrin (2012) have all been successful off 10st.

MULTIPLE WINNERS
Only two horses have won the race twice - Sentina in 1957 and 1958, and Scot Lane in 1982 and 1983.

MOST SUCCESSFUL TRAINER
Fred Rimell (Cavaliero (1948), Frere Jacques II (1949), Land Fort (1951) and Holly Bank (1954)) and Fulke
Walwyn (Ravencroft (1961), Team Spirit (1963), Lord Jim (1971), Gay Vulgan (1977)) both recorded fourwins
in the Festival Handicap Chase.Jonjo O’Neill (Wichita Lineman (2009) and Alfie Sherrin (2012)) and Alan King (Fork Lightning (2004) a
nd Bensalem (2011)) are the most successful current trainers with two wins each.

MOST SUCCESSFUL JOCKEY
Robert Thornton is the most successful jockey with three wins to his name – Fork Lightning (2004), Kelami (2005) and Bensalem (2011).

OVERSEAS-TRAINED WINNERS
Irish-trained horses have prevailed on seven occasions – Dunshaughlin (1946), Royal Tan (1952), Sentina (1957 & 1958), Arkloin (1966), Youlneverwalkalone (2003) and Dun Doire (2006). Kelami, successful in 2005, is the only French-trainer winner.

BETTING
The shortest-priced winner was Silver Fame in 1950 at 5/4. The longest-priced scorer was Joes Edge, who belied odds of 50/1 to win in 2007.

DID YOU KNOW?
Five horses have used the Festival Handicap Chase as a stepping stone to the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup:
Silver Fame (1950) Gold Cup 1951 Four Ten (1953) Gold Cup 1954 Limber Hill (1955) Gold Cup 1956 Kerstin (1956) Gold Cup 1958
Charter Party (1986) Gold Cup 1988

Four subsequent Crabbie’s Grand National winners have captured the Festival Handicap Chase:
Royal Tan (1952) Grand National 1954 West Tip (1985) Grand National 1986 Seagram (1991) Grand National 1991
Rough Quest (1995) Grand National 1996

The Festival Handicap Chase has been won by a pair of owners with showbiz connections. Hollywood idol
Gregory Peck owned the 1967 scorer Different Class, while Hot Chocolate lead singer Errol Brown saw his
colours carried to victory by Gainsey in 1987.

 

[Old Vic]

Weights later today I think

Odds

Annacotty (14), Bury Parade (14), Cause Of Causes (14), Shutthefrontdoor (14), Hadrians Approach (16), Indian Castle (16), Many Clouds (16), Sam Winner (16), Alfie Sherrin (20), Balnaslow (20), Cantlow (20), Holywell (20), Los Amigos (20), Midnight Prayer (20), Our Father (20), Restless Harry (20), Rockyaboya (20), Teaforthree (20), Theatre Guide (20), Triolo DAlene (20), Unioniste (20), Uxizandre (20), Alvarado (25), Ardkilly Witness (25), Away We Go (25), Bog Warrior (25), Buddy Bolero (25), Burton Port (25), Double Ross (25), Dursey Sound (25), Godsmejudge (25), Golden Chieftain (25), Green Flag (25), Houblon Des Obeaux (25), Hunt Ball (25), Ma Filleule (25), Pendra (25), Sraid Padraig (25), Sydney Paget (25), Tap Night (25), Vesper Bell (25), Vintage Star (25), Wetak (25), Wrong Turn (25), Buywise (33), Duke Of Lucca (33), Edmund Kean (33), Fruity ORooney (33), Goulanes (33), Kalmonto (33), King Massini (33), Knock A Hand (33), Knockara Beau (33), Living Next Door (33), Make A Track (33), Mon Parrain (33), Muldoons Picnic (33), No Planning (33), Pacha Du Polder (33), Planet Of Sound (33)in, Real Milan (33), Rigadin De Beauchene (33), Romanesco (33), Same Difference (33), Shakalakaboomboom (33), Spring Heeled (33), Standing Ovation (33), The Package (33), Theatrical Star (33), Third Intention (33), Time For Rupert (33), Toner DOudairies (33), Tour Des Champs (33), Une Artiste (33), Victrix Gale (33), Vino Griego (33), Ackertac (40), Baile Anrai (40), Bless The Wings (40), Bucking The Trend (40), Kruzhlinin (40), Le Reve (40), Midnight Appeal (40), Night Alliance (40), Relax (40), River Choice (40), Shrapnel (40), Top Of The Range (40), Twirling Magnet (40), Aachen (50), Mart Lane (50), No Buts (50), Renard (50), Saint Are (50), Solix (50), Soll (50), Tullamore Dew (50), Fine Parchment (66)

 

[Lester]

 

[Lester]

 

[Statto]

Age

10/10 were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 35 of 38 places
11 year olds are 0/31 in the period with only 1 making the frame.

Breeding
Irish bred horses have overperformed winning 8 of last 10 from approximately half of the field

Weight
Big trend this ..
9/10 carried 10-12 or less
Top Weight has been placed twice in the decade finishing P23P0787597P
12 of the last 13 winners carried less than 11st from approximately one-third of the total runners
The 2013 winner Golden Chieftain scraped in as bottom weight of the 24 runners. Of the ten horses to carry 11st+ last season, only three even completed the course.

Official Ratings
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143.
Scot Lane in 1983 last winner officially rated 150+.
Unguided Missile in 1998 last winner off a handicap mark higher than 143.

Recent/Past Form
Of the last 16 winners, seven had finished in the first four at the Cheltenham Festival before
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham
No horse to contest the Hennessy Gold Cup has won this for 24 years

Trainers
Alan King ( 2 winners and 1 place from 9 runners) and Jonjo O’Neill (2 winners 1 place from 11 and Nicky Henderson last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his 13 runners get placed in past 10 runnings. Nigel Twiston-Davies & Venetia Williams have managed just 2 places from their collective 28 runners since 2004. There had been no Irish trained (1-2-15) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003 but the Irish have landed 2 of the 11 renewals. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.

Owner

JP McManus has owned the winner on three occasions in the last 11 years,

Price
6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
The market principals have run quite well, with 21 of 38 places being filled by horses priced 12/1 or lower however there have been 3 big shocks in the last 7 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & 28/1 last year.
Favourites have a won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00 but did fill 5 places.

 

[Old Vic]

Morning statto.

Been looking at this too.

I could be wrong on this but could see weights going up about 5lbs - cant see anything above Unioniste running here and not sure what plans for him are either. Would they want a 6 year old carrying top weight ?

That means I am only looking a horses with a current weight of 10 9 or less.

I looked at the McManus horses first but ruled them out on age grounds.

There are four Tony Martin horses though that could be plotted ...Sraid Padraig would be of interest if running here and could be another decent chance for Danny Mullins.

The others are further down the weights and debating whether to just back all three NRNB or do a bit more digging

 

[Morning Glory]

Martin told Dublin Racing Club that Sraid Padraig goes to William Hill

 

[Old Vic]

Have taken a piece of the 33/1 ew NRNB about Romanesco.

Also in in the Kim Muir but nicely weighted for this and will probably get in as usually cuts up.

Noted since last year since 3rd in Kim Muir

I agree with Mr Linfoot's noting of the Pipe horse, and will add Romanesco's run in the Kim Muir as another to add to the notebook. Purchased by Giggingstown prior to the Festival, it was no surprise to see Gordon Elliott's runner come in for support, particularly given the strength of his never-nearer second to National hope Colbert Station on his previous start over fences. A mistake at the first forced Nina Carberry to bide her time aboard the eight-year-old, who could be seen travelling noticeably well turning for home before another blunder at what was the final fence proved too much to recover from. That three-and-a-quarter mile race was a thorough test of stamina and the visual impression is that Romanesco didn't quite see it out. Granted better ground, though, he clearly gets three miles with a little to spare and a handicap chase on the final day of the Punchestown Festival could prove the ideal target. Wherever he goes, it's fair to assume his shrewd trainer will have identified the right race and having pulled well clear of the fourth at Cheltenham, I fancy Romanesco's turn isn't far off.

33s is with Bet365

<br/><A href="http://imstore.bet365affiliates.com/Tracker.aspx?AffiliateId=48096&AffiliateCode=365_087943&CID=199&DID=82&TID=1&PID=149&LNG=1" target="_blank"><img src="http://imstore.bet365affiliates.com/?AffiliateCode=365_087943&CID=199&DID=82&TID=1&PID=149&LNG=1" border="0" ></A>

 

[Grade1]

Tours Des Champs is interesting.

Ran off a OR of 139 last year down to 129 this year.

Trainer race record is a negative but has to change sometime.

 

[oscar]

Green Flag anyone? Seems to fulfill most stats?

 

[Grade1]

Green Flag anyone? Seems to fulfill most stats?

Weight ?

What do you have a top weight in this Oscar ?

 

[oscar]

He'd down to carry 10-11.

Houblon des Obeuex for top weight?

 

[Old Vic]

He'd down to carry 10-11.

Houblon des Obeuex for top weight?

Wonder will run HDO in Gold Cup ?

Last run was Teaforthree may have been touched off by Restless Harry (4-1) in the Weatherby's Hamilton Insurance Chase at Ascot but afterwards all the talk was about Aintree for last season's Welsh National runner-up.

The Rebecca Curtis-trained 10-year-old was beaten a neck in the three-mile Listed event after a titanic duel over the final three fences, but Noel Fehily's mount was immediately slashed in price for the Crabbie's Grand National, a race in which he finished third last season.

Curtis said: "I am very pleased with that. He has a lovely weight for the Grand National (10st 12lb) because there are a lot of high-class horses above him in the handicap."

She added: "He's had one or two physical problems and he needed the race in at Chepstow (Welsh National).

"While we will have to see how he comes out of the race, we've probably got him as good as he's ever been at the moment."

Jockey Charlie Poste is now looking forward to the Cheltenham Festival with the Robin Dickin-trained Restless Harry.

Poste said: "He's a cute old boy - he just does enough when he gets in front and was never going to win by far.

"He shouldn't go up too much in the handicap for that, so a three-mile handicap chase at Cheltenham would be an option.

"His jumping has often found him out in the past, but he's much more confident now and he's very effective in this deep ground."

Cheltenham Gold Cup entry Houblon Des Obeaux came from well off the pace to claim third under Liam Treadwell.

 

[oscar]

I hope not. He'd have no chance in the Gold Cup lol

 

[Lester]

I hope not. He'd have no chance in the Gold Cup lol

Owners might like a runner - wouldnt give him much chance of top weight here either

 

[Yeehaa]

Romanesco - yep ..anything from Elliott at previews ?
Tours Des Champs - not for me
Green Flag - yep still in RSA though ?

Cant have Hadrians Approach in a big field handicap - jumping not convincing.

 

[oscar]

Trainer has Le Bec in the RSA so hopefully Green Flag with go here.

 

[Old Vic]

Trainer has Le Bec in the RSA so hopefully Green Flag with go here.

Le Bec a bit of a forgotten horse but Ms Lavelle rather than Ms Russell.