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Festival Forum Yankee - April

Middle_Of_March

Middle_Of_March

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I’d like to put three names forward:

- Benie Des Dieux @ 6/1 for the Mares
- Samcro @ 16/1 for the JLT
- Malone Road @ 20/1 for the Supreme

I believe all three of these are fair prices. BDD was my lump bet this year. Can’t believe she came down. If she stayed up at the last, there’s no way she’d be 6/1. She’d be something like 3/1. And as she had the race won when falling, I think she ought to be that 3/1 rather than 6/1. Especially as connections have already said she’d be aimed at the Mares again next season.
 
Benie staying hurdles and target is Mares Hurdle - don't suppose you have that article MOM ?
Would be very interested in reading that
TA
 
I think Samcro will be RSA bound not JLT... he won’t have the speed for the JLT
 
PitLad said:
Benie staying hurdles and target is Mares Hurdle - don't suppose you have that article MOM ?
Would be very interested in reading that
TA
Click to expand...

I remember seeing Mullins say it a few days after the race. In fact, I think he said it later in Cheltenham week.
 
The Don said:
I think Samcro will be RSA bound not JLT... he won’t have the speed for the JLT
Click to expand...

It’s like April 2018 all over again.
Personally I think JLT would be the right race, but I thought that 12 months ago much to my cost.
He could end up in any of the nov chases, he might not take to fences and revert back to hurdles where he could be champion hurdle, stayers hurdle or county hurdle bound, and on that basis I don’t see Samcro a viable option for a yankee so far out...
 
I'd be against picking a target for Samcro this far out too.

He's also not had any good form in 12 months



Benie Des Dieux I can see as a solid starting point.I like Malone road but picking the Supreme winner is tough enough on the day let alone April.


We're best sticking to the Championship races?


Espoir D'allen looks an obvous (and fair) price.


Paisley Park

and hard not to be impressed with Kemboy or Al Boum Photo
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd be against picking a target for Samcro this far out too.

He's also not had any good form in 12 months



Benie Des Dieux I can see as a solid starting point.I like Malone road but picking the Supreme winner is tough enough on the day let alone April.


We're best sticking to the Championship races?


Espoir D'allen looks an obvous (and fair) price.


Paisley Park

and hard not to be impressed with Kemboy or Al Boum Photo
Click to expand...

Paisley Park and Kemboy id vote for. Espoir Dallen was in the March Yankee so I’d be against him.

Benie would be my first choice. Excellent price at 6/1 with Hills in my opinion.

I’d like a base of:
- BDD
- Paisley Park

With Kemboy as a likely one too
 
Didn’t Scooby give Fly Smart for the Supreme as a bit of a good bye tip?

33/1!
 
Agreee entirely re BDD.... very big price.

Min Ryanair?
 
For what it's worth, and based on nothing more than gut feel, I've always thought that the mucking about with Samcro might have been because he didn't school well over fences. Even if this were true it doesn't mean that they haven't sorted it now but at this stage I wouldn't be much more than 50% confident that he will be chasing next season never mind at which distance.
 
Horses that have enhanced their reputations ?

Gold Cup: Kemboy or LiT ?
Champion Hurdle: Nothing although maybe Buveur a backable price ?
Ryanair: Min or maybe DDS
Stayers: Nothing that impressive at aintree for me so PP a solid pick imo
 
archie said:
For what it's worth, and based on nothing more than gut feel, I've always thought that the mucking about with Samcro might have been because he didn't school well over fences. Even if this were true it doesn't mean that they haven't sorted it now but at this stage I wouldn't be much more than 50% confident that he will be chasing next season never mind at which distance.
Click to expand...

a plus one on that here.
 
The Don said:
Agreee entirely re BDD.... very big price.

Min Ryanair?
Click to expand...

Yeah I'd like that. Definitely has enhanced his reputation since and was already top of my list
 
I'd perhaps be wary of any horse in the Gold Cup.

Definitely a number of contenders that you can't rule out ...

The RSA 1-2-3
Lostintranslation and Kemboy from Aintree
The defending champion Al Boum Photo
Presenting Percy you could put a line through the GC as he got injured so can't be ruled out.

That's off the top of my head a pretty deep race ...
 
Tiger Roll ... keep it simple haha
 
Any idea if Klassical Dream stays hurdling or novice chasing next season?
 
I’m thinking champion hurdle myself because what else has he? Melon, laurina, draconien plus a few others can be the stables arkle/jlt horses
 
Steer well clear of champion hurdle and Gold cup at this point... far far too open and no value for me.

Gypsey Island Mares novices?

I’m massively with Stand Up and Fight for the fox hunters.... furious it wasn’t tried with at all this year as cost me a fortune but was there to school with a mind to winning it this year.
 
The Don said:
Steer well clear of champion hurdle and Gold cup at this point... far far too open and no value for me.

Gypsey Island Mares novices?

I’m massively with Stand Up and Fight for the fox hunters.... furious it wasn’t tried with at all this year as cost me a fortune but was there to school with a mind to winning it this year.
Click to expand...

Are you concerned at all that 'schooled this year' is being over played?
He's 12/1 but was thrashed? We have no evidence to suggest he will get the trip any better?

Obviously he can win, but 12/1 doesn't scream VALUE at me this far out?
 
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