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Epsom Derby 2019

Is it a bit crazy to think that Line Of Duty might hit the frame at a huge price? He’s over 100s on the exchanges. The Dante was Red hot and with most of the horses finishing in front that day had race fitness on their sides and closers struggling to land a blow. He looks worth a small ew bet as I think he may have just got a bit tired in the last couple of furlongs. Not really sure how his breeders cup form would translate back over here but he had AVD behind him and a few subsequent graded winners including the Preakness winner. James Doyle looked to only use the whip to straighten him up in the Dante and then went very easily after that?
 
I think it’s a year to take a punt SA, never known the front 2 in the market having to be supplemented before so clearly they weren’t considered as Derby horses on breeding and given how many Coolmore enter you have to find that staggering alone.
Why not throw darts at big prices ?
 
I’ve just been re-visiting some trends for the race and whilst I know many are not convinced with trends there are two key ones that have to be taken seriously.

Firstly the draw, a double digit draw makes life very difficult, middle is the place to be 3-9 looks ideal in a normal sized field but we’ll have to wait a while until the draw is made.

The second key trend is when horses are foaled.
Epsom is a huge stamina test over 12f with the first 5f being still uphill, also a fact that is often unconsidered is that horses have to canter the entire 12f distance in reverse to reach the post, this adds to the emphasis on stamina which can only be evident in older horses so horses foaled in Jan/Feb have a huge advantage over those foaled in April/May, the historic cut off still looks to be 16 April which takes out Norway, Bangkok, Cape of Good Hope and Anthony van Dyke.

I hate the fact connections didn’t consider Telecaster good enough to be entered but I believe history could show the Dante to be a serious renewal and he wasn’t stopping at the line, I have some 7/1 and 13/2 and will look to go in again with enhanced places on Saturday, and I’ll be laying those above on place markets
 
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Istabraq said:
I’ve just been re-visiting some trends for the race and whilst I know many are not convinced with trends there are two key ones that have to be taken seriously.

Firstly the draw, a double digit draw makes life very difficult, middle is the place to be 3-9 looks ideal in a normal sized field but we’ll have to wait a while until the draw is made.

The second key trend is when horses are foaled.
Epsom is a huge stamina test over 12f with the first 5f being still uphill, also a fact that is often unconsidered is that horses have to canter the entire 12f distance in reverse to reach the post, this adds to the emphasis on stamina which can only be evident in older horses so horses foaled in Jan/Feb have a huge advantage over those foaled in April/May, the historic cut off still looks to be 16 April which takes out Norway, Bangkok, Cape of Good Hope and Anthony van Dyke.

I hate the fact connections didn’t consider Telecaster good enough to be entered but I believe history could show the Dante to be a serious renewal and he wasn’t stopping at the line, I have some 7/1 and 13/2 and will look to go in again with enhanced places on Saturday, and I’ll be laying those above on place markets
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Interesting stats Istabraq. The canter to the start is something I’ve never even considered. Would you say the same sort of trends would apply for the oaks too? Looking at the month foaled is something I’ve only ever looked at when browsing 2yo racecards
 
Very interesting analysis Istabraq. I’ll be keeping an eye out for the draw for the race. I fancy Broome for the Derby and Anapurna for the Oaks, I haven’t seen enough to change my mind but will probably have an e/w bet on Line of Duty and Franklina if and when 1/4 odds become available on B365
 
Stormy Antarctic said:
Interesting stats Istabraq. The canter to the start is something I’ve never even considered. Would you say the same sort of trends would apply for the oaks too? Looking at the month foaled is something I’ve only ever looked at when browsing 2yo racecards
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Very probably SA, I haven't looked into it but it stands to reason that a filly foaled in Feb will be more physically advanced than a fully foaled in May.
Flat racing just plugs the gap between Punchestown and October for me though a little knowledge is always welcome and I do find these sorts of trends/stats fascinating....
 
Istabraq said:
Very probably SA, I haven't looked into it but it stands to reason that a filly foaled in Feb will be more physically advanced than a fully foaled in May.
Flat racing just plugs the gap between Punchestown and October for me though a little knowledge is always welcome and I do find these sorts of trends/stats fascinating....
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Just had a quick browse at the oaks card and the ones that fit the criteria best are Maqsad and tarnawa. Might just be worth throwing a few darts at!
 
Maqsad is my main bet in the Oaks, if she stays then I think she'll be very tough to beat. The Pretty Polly is my go to trial for the Oaks and she won that impressively.

I'll also be backing Manuela De Vega 12/1 each way. She was well beaten by the favourite at Chester but that was her first run of the season and I expect her to come on a lot for that. Ralph Beckett has a great record in the race and I just hope the rain stays away.

In the Derby I've got Madhmoon at 40/1 and I'll be backing him again each way on the day. Telecaster impressed me in the Dante and I will add him at best morning prices.

I'll add cross each way doubles on those 4 as well on Friday morning.
 
Anyone got a strong opinion as to whether Bangkok will stay the 12F? He has already beat Telecaster over 10F this season but my worry is that he looks to have plenty of pace and may not see out the trip.

Having watched all the trials again tonight I'm tempted to switch from Telecaster to Bangkok and make him my main bet in the process.

*Just read Ista's stats but that alone isn't enough to put me off :p
 
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I'll be in Italy this weekend for the Moto GP at Mugello so will miss the Derby/Oaks! - so I probably don't deserve an opinion :p BUT I'll give it anyway ;)


Already backed Madhmoon at 25/1 and Anthony Van Dyke at 8/1 both each way for The Derby


Very much in agreement with FM on Telecaster, as long as he's an each way price on the morning (hopefully 4 places) then I'll probably have him as my biggest return.

40/1 Norway and 50/1 Line Of Duty are big prices too IMO....although unlikely having 5 backed is sensible :highly_amused:




In the Oaks... I've already backed Frankellina 40/1. Thought she was eye catching but realistically her price now seems short at 16/1 based on what she's actually done so I'm at square one really. Thought Fleeting deserved more than a second glance at 40/1 too but I'll wait for the enhanced places.

Again, agree with FM that Manuela De Vega is a fair each way price... can see me adding that too, but not until the day.




I respected Too Darn Hot too much to go bananas ante post, however having assumed he'd not make it has left me in an alright spot - and The Oaks I respect but couldn't even contemplate backing the fav at the price she is. She can win at that price and I'll stick to the form book.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Anyone got a strong opinion as to whether Bangkok will stay the 12F? He has already beat Telecaster over 10F this season but my worry is that he looks to have plenty of pace and may not see out the trip.

Having watched all the trials again tonight I'm tempted to switch from Telecaster to Bangkok and make him my main bet in the process.
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Interesting... definitely don't have a strong opinion on it but Telecaster definitely improved for the run... so to take the form too literally wouldn't be gospel and Technician whom he beat fairly easily was then walloped by Sir Dragonet so it's hard to get too excited?
 
Kevloaf said:
Interesting... definitely don't have a strong opinion on it but Telecaster definitely improved for the run... so to take the form too literally wouldn't be gospel and Technician whom he beat fairly easily was then walloped by Sir Dragonet so it's hard to get too excited?
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Perhaps I'm just over thinking it and Telecaster does look like a different animal since Donny. If there are extra places on offer on Saturday I'll end up backing them both :highly_amused:.
 
I think Bangkok is an excellent place only bet. I don't think 9/1 is a good win bet.... but I've been wrong once or twice before :p
 
Should add I also backed Dubai Warrior and Sea Of Faith ante post too
 
Backed Mehdaayih for the Oaks at 9/2 blindly following a Hugh Taylor antepost 2 pointer, how I like to roll during the flat season. Laid half my stake off at just over 5/2 which looks a good decision now as she's drifting after it was confirmed Frankie's not on board. Fingers crossed for a decent run
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Anyone got a strong opinion as to whether Bangkok will stay the 12F? He has already beat Telecaster over 10F this season but my worry is that he looks to have plenty of pace and may not see out the trip.

Having watched all the trials again tonight I'm tempted to switch from Telecaster to Bangkok and make him my main bet in the process.

*Just read Ista's stats but that alone isn't enough to put me off :p
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27th April FM...
 
Derby draw

1 Line of Duty
2 Telecaster
3 Hiroshima
4 Sovereign
5 Circus Maximus
6 Madhmoon
7 Anthony Van Dyck
8 Broome
9 Humanitarian
10 Norway
11 Japan
12 Bangkok
13 Sir Dragonet
 
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