Envoi Allen

[FaugheenTheMachine]

The Marsh just seems to fit perfectly imho; just really hope he’s as electric over fences as he looks he could be

 

[Lobos]

The Marsh just seems to fit perfectly imho; just really hope he’s as electric over fences as he looks he could be

The weight of money for him suggests he is Marsh bound but I wouldn't risk it. I don't see him as an Arkle horse and can't see him staying over hurdles so it's the Marsh or RSA for me. Backed him at 5/2 TWAR and will continue to chip away. Yes, he's way too short but he is a very special horse so we can't be choosy.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The weight of money for him suggests he is Marsh bound but I wouldn't risk it. I don't see him as an Arkle horse and can't see him staying over hurdles so it's the Marsh or RSA for me. Backed him at 5/2 TWAR and will continue to chip away. Yes, he's way too short but he is a very special horse so we can't be choosy.

I think you must be the one of the first to agree with me (to a degree) about him not being an Arkle horse :victorious:

 

[EnvoyAllen]

I think you must be the one of the first to agree with me (to a degree) about him not being an Arkle horse :victorious:

I think looking across the board at all of the bookies odds for “Envoi@Arkle“, every bookmaker agrees with you Sir...??

Why a horse that’s been acknowledged by its trainer as a future gold cup horse, winning in its novice season over an intermediate distance would then drop down to the minimum distance a year later ‘as prep’ for maybe 2 tilts in his prime years for a Gold Cup the year after that......... I would personally find bewildering. It would make no reasonably logical racing sense. Surely??

Also Mr ComplyOrDie, I noticed you’ve been (I’m sure) very keen on Mr Trump at odds of 10/11 (or close) and have been advocating this is value compared to the odds you believe he’ll shorten to just before the US election? Well, I’ve decided to add him to a lot of multiples too. May I just ask on why you think he’ll shorten so much in the next few months? I hope indeed the 10/11 price is currently a good one!

I’m banking on your knowledge and reasoning!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think looking across the board at all of the bookies odds for “Envoi@Arkle“, every bookmaker agrees with you Sir...??

Why a horse that’s been acknowledged by its trainer as a future gold cup horse, winning in its novice season over an intermediate distance would then drop down to the minimum distance a year later ‘as prep’ for maybe 2 tilts in his prime years for a Gold Cup the year after that......... I would personally find bewildering. It would make no reasonably logical racing sense. Surely??

Also Mr ComplyOrDie, I noticed you’ve been (I’m sure) very keen on Mr Trump at odds of 10/11 (or close) and have been advocating this is value compared to the odds you believe he’ll shorten to just before the US election? Well, I’ve decided to add him to a lot of multiples too. May I just ask on why you think he’ll shorten so much in the next few months? I hope indeed the 10/11 price is currently a good one!

I’m banking on your knowledge and reasoning!

Haha indeed they do seem to agree with me, but I'm trying to beat them not agree with them

Agree regarding his future of being a Gold Cup horse, whilst some would argue horses have won an Arkle and still won Gold Cups, I think it'd be a backwards step myself, and think he'd be vulnerable also.

With regards to Mr Trump I've been going in blind, following others on here (not sure who got the ball rolling with that one, possibly Hurricane Fly), who noted the difference between the odds (which is what I'm basing the value of him on) in the states as opposed to our bookmakers. Been using him to get horses on side who I think are slightly under priced. By no way is that a clever idea, but for small stakes I am happy to risk it a little.

You can find the US Election stuff here - US Election

 

[EnvoyAllen]

Envoi Allen (for the Marsh Novices Chase) now clipped in last few days to 3/1 from 4’s with three companies and into 10/3 with several others?

Interesting development without wishing to assume anything? Those companies have cut straight to 3’s without even touching the 7/2 marker.

No smoke without fire......

 

[SharpHat]

Still think he'll go rsa, dont think you can read too much h into the price change. His ultimate aim is the goldcup, so the rsa makes the most sense as a stepping stone

 

[Lobos]

Still think he'll go rsa, dont think you can read too much h into the price change. His ultimate aim is the goldcup, so the rsa makes the most sense as a stepping stone

You can still get 5/2 with Sky specials that he wins either the Marsh or the RSA which is an option for you.

 

[EnvoyAllen]

Agreed Mr Lowe in that all of the indications are he’s been bred and ultimately aimed at the Gold Cup (likely for his 2 ‘at his peak as an 8 and 9 year old’ ) tilts in 2022 and 2023. I just have a hunch they’ll not want to scupper his biggest asset - his pace - by slogging him through this season at 3 miles. I have indeed invested in the RSA and ‘any race’ markets, but I think his route this year will be the intermediate trip.

 

[Quevega]

Agreed Mr Lowe in that all of the indications are he’s been bred and ultimately aimed at the Gold Cup (likely for his 2 ‘at his peak as an 8 and 9 year old’ ) tilts in 2022 and 2023. I just have a hunch they’ll not want to scupper his biggest asset - his pace - by slogging him through this season at 3 miles. I have indeed invested in the RSA and ‘any race’ markets, but I think his route this year will be the intermediate trip.

Interesting you say his biggest asset is his pace.
But think it absurd he'd run in an arkle.

He's that good he could run in any of the three options and be very tough to beat, assuming no jumping issues arise.

It looks pretty clear that the middle option is most likely.

The best Gold cup horses of recent times, Best Mate & Kauto Star were both very good at 2 miles and had it not been for foot and mouth disease. Best Mate would have been odds on for the arkle that year. I think Kauto went straight for the Champion Chase but fell when 2/1 Fav.

However, they did not have the luxury of choice and so the intermediate trip does seem ideal for Classy novices looking towards the Gold cup in the long term. Obviously Ground and opposition may mean Gordon fucks with people a little nearer the time, like this year.

It looks a safe option that he will run in the Marsh.

 

[EnvoyAllen]

Interesting you say his biggest asset is his pace.
But think it absurd he'd run in an arkle.

He's that good he could run in any of the three options and be very tough to beat, assuming no jumping issues arise.

It looks pretty clear that the middle option is most likely.

The best Gold cup horses of recent times, Best Mate & Kauto Star were both very good at 2 miles and had it not been for foot and mouth disease. Best Mate would have been odds on for the arkle that year. I think Kauto went straight for the Champion Chase but fell when 2/1 Fav.

However, they did not have the luxury of choice and so the intermediate trip does seem ideal for Classy novices looking towards the Gold cup in the long term. Obviously Ground and opposition may mean Gordon fucks with people a little nearer the time, like this year.

It looks a safe option that he will run in the Marsh.

‘Turn of foot when it matter 3 furlongs out’ is what I meant by ‘pace’.

 

[Quevega]

‘Turn of foot when it matter 3 furlongs out’ is what I meant by ‘pace’.

Very specific.:highly_amused:
Should have known what you meant :stupid:

 

[Lobos]

After all this we all know he's going to end up in the Churdle with Honeysuckle!!

 

[Fatjockey69]

Will be marsh He’s goes for nap

 

[Middle_Of_March]

The three lengths I was talking about referred to Shishkin and Abacadaras. That was taking a line through the Royal Bond and there is a fair possibility that Abacadabras improved on his performance. I don't think Envoi Allen did.

I went into the Festival thinking Envoi Allen would win the Supreme but came out wondering whether in fact he would have been third.

Despite winning his race and already previously beating the nose-beaten runner up comfortably previously.

Some wild conclusion that. Guess any narrative can be made to take on a horse if you don’t want to back it..