Doing an 'Naiad'

[Spectre]

On the Ultima Thread Charlie quoted some statistics, and amongst them was this, which got me thinking about a fun, and potentially lucrative thread to take us up to and through the Festival.

4 of the last 7 ran in the Newbury Ladbroke Chase. The other three were novices.

Firstly, Jonjo and Bridgey might want to look at that. Outside of Cloth Cap and The Conditional, only Aye Right is likely to fit the first part of that trend, which is why I backed all three early doors. I suspect only Aye Right will end up here now though. But for the purpose of what I'm about to say I'm glad they don't get it and are busy going off and campaigning there horses elsewhere.

Happygolucky fits the second part of the trend(s), he won't be alone, and is the most likely winner to my mind. I love his profile for this, Including his course form, and I've had a reasonable amount on him so far before the first declation stage. And when they come through I'll be chipping away further on him to a fairly large position up to the weights anouncement, and then I'll continue to back him further to the final decs, where I'll be upping stakes further all the way through to the off.

Each year I try to find the UK handicap horse that goes under the radar with all the Irish hype, that fits the right set of trends and statistics (I keep my own), and he's it for me this year. In the past I've had some fairly substantial wins by chipping away at the prices in this way, and I have a group of friends who follow me on said horse every year. Pertinently, over the last few years the plunge horse has hit more than missed, admittedly placing more than winning, but the wins have been substantial, and the bet has been highly profitable.

I am now going to unashamedly aftertime (with something that can be corroborated by at least 2 members on here), and say that the biggest win I had doing this was on Naiad du Misselot in the Coral Cup a few years ago. He returned a whopping 2700 points, but he's not been the only substantial winner over the years, just the biggest. There have also been several placed horses that have been between 100 and 400 point returns.

So why am I saying this? Whilst it always feels good to remember the big winners, I'm not saying it to aftertime, I'm saying it to make what i think is a relevant point to consider in terms of Festival betting strategy. Think of it this way. We're all guilty of covering bets over 28 races, and to try and spread our risk and to keep our interest. We also do the lifechanger multipes that require several horses to hit. But how often does that happen? How many stories are there each year on here of mulipes bringing 20k plus wins? And there are some seriously knowledgeable people here attempting to pull off those big wins don't forget.

Surely if you're going to pull off a big one it's more likely to happen on a single isn't it? Have you ever really considered that you can back one single horse within four weeks of the Fesitval, eliminating 48 weeks of antepost risk, and make such a massive difference to your overall result? And more specifically, isn't easier to have one single horse that can really make your Festival? Think of it this way. We're all really good at playing the value in the antepost markets, there really are some fantastic bets, but looking at diaries and suggestions on the general threads I'd say we're at best 'okay' at playing the value in the handicap markets. Lifechanger singles just don't exist.

So, to wrap up this lengthy email, as I've said this type of bet has been really good to me over the years, and whilst there's no guarantee that this year is going to be the year to nail the big one, wouldn't it be good if most of the forum was on? This year I really do have the 'Naiad' feeling with this Happygolucky, and I'm all guns blazing between now and the 16th March. I may go down spectacularly and completely crash and burn, but the place part alone could be one of my best winners of the week. But just maybe I might take out the really big one again and do a the full 'Naiad'!

Hopefully I've given everyone some food for thought about a really good strategy to adopt in the last four weeks of lead up. But it would be even better if you guys joined me in taking out a big one with the Happygolucky plunge. I reckon he's going off no more than 7/1-8/1 on the day, and at the moment he remains outstanding value in a race that always cuts up with more than half the field usually being no-hopers.

So whether you join me or not, I'm going to post my stakes on this thread all the way through to the day, and I'd encourage anyone who's tempted to join me to do the same. It'll be fun to see how much we either take out or could have taken out, whatever the result.

So who's in? Are you with me? :loyal:

 

[charlie]

FYI I nicked that from http://www.gaultstats.com

 

[Spectre]

Happygolucky Stakes:
2 points ew 33/1 (4pl) - Win 83.2 points Place 15.2
2 points ew 25/1 (4pl) - Win 64 Place 12
1 point ew 22/1 nrnb (5pl) Win 28.4. Place 11.4
5 points ew 20/1 nrnb (5pl) Win 130 Place 25
5 points ew 20/1 nrnb (5pl) Win 130 Place 25

Stake - 30 points
Win - 435.6 points
Place - 88.6 points

 

[Quevega]

I kind of get where you're coming from with this.:encouragement:

However, there's something about it, on a forum like this, that doesn't sit right.
It's kind of XXX rated and I'd be concerned that some people who shouldn't be viewing this type of thing will be.

In fact it probably wouldn't get past the censors at all.
And I'm no fucking prude, that's for sure.

 

[Kevloaf]

So completely ignore all you've done over a season, pick one horse in a handicap and go all-in on it?

I'm lost, unless it's you saying this is without a doubt the best bet of the week? ... and the best bet of any horse since whenever it was?

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well I’ve had a dabble, not sure if I will go in again and again!! But should it win I have a profit.

 

[Nortons who]

You have certainly picked a horse with the right name for an unadultered punt. Dictionary definition example =

Someone who is Happygolucky is 'Cheerfully unconcerned about the future', so I wish you well and look forward to seekng just how many points can be clocked up.

PS : I did back him as soon as I saw confirmation was Ultima bound but for my very boriing 20 points return.

Please gamble sensibly and only bet what you can afford.

 

[Spectre]

So completely ignore all you've done over a season, pick one horse in a handicap and go all-in on it?

I'm lost, unless it's you saying this is without a doubt the best bet of the week? ... and the best bet of any horse since whenever it was?

I'm saying there's more than one way of skinning a cat. We all do singles. Some one or two a race. Some make a book, and lay off what they don't want. Some do doubles, trebles, trixies, yankees. Some add in some lifechangers. Then there's roll-ups, request-a-bets, etc.

Some bets are quite risky. Roll-ups would be a good example. There have been an untold amount of points that have gone down on roll-ups to my eye. This is just another strategy.

The objective is to make money, and I reckon over the long term anyone who gets Cheltenham and the handicaps can make really good money if they have a consistent stratgegy and are very selective.

Don't forget I'm not suggesting going all in at skinny prices. I'm suggesting 33's down to 25's, to 22's, 20's, 16's, 14's, 12's 10's 8's, etc, a point or two each way at a time. Nothing singificant in the grand sheme of things. It might add up to a few points in the end, but the win return is significant, and the palce return isn't insignificant. The outlay compared to everything else over 365 days is quite frankly bugger all.

I'm sharing my own experience of doing this. I don't have to, or need to. It's not an ego thing. It's actually the opposite. I've spent years doing my own thing and I've never really shared it until I started posting here, where I see lots of people doing things that I've done for a lot of years. Some finding there way. Others who are just as capable and experienced as me. And everything inbetween. On the other hand I don't want to teach anyone to suck eggs either. We all have our methods, and sometimes it pays to stick to them and do what you know and are comforatble with.

But I can categorically say this type of bet works, and it's been very profitable. It may not this year. As with any of our bets there's no cast iron guarantee, But there's a fairly fundamental reason why this is a good bet. Big odds, one horse, rather than several, and reduced timescale risk is at the heart of it, And it's very logical when you think about it.

 

[Spectre]

However, there's something about it, on a forum like this, that doesn't sit right.
It's kind of XXX rated and I'd be concerned that some people who shouldn't be viewing this type of thing will be.

I'm probably missing what you mean Q? Happy to clarify or withdraw if I've said something inappropriate?

 

[FrenchHolly]

I like this horse as well and think the strategy is spot on, without wanting to alienate myself I think too many people have a scattergun theory in a desperate search to say I backed the winner. Everyone has their own way of betting and who’s to say what’s right or wrong?

I personally won’t be betting in every race and some races are too trappy and some I don’t have a strong viewpoint on. So I’ll stick to the ones where I like a particular horse or angle. Getting back in the horse in question agree with all previously said but my one slight concern is I think his mark possibly doesn’t have much wiggle room? Also if my beloved Escaria Ten does come here then he’d be my main selection but happy to add HGL as a backup.

 

[Exar Essay]

An interesting read. How do you mean this kind of bet can be profitable? Isn’t it the case that the antepost market for handicaps just develops a little later than the graded races so there’s still more juice in them?

Also, if you don’t mind me asking, why did you pick Happygolucky other than his being a novice? What’s made you so sweet on him that you’re willing to make him your biggest win of the week?

 

[Spectre]

I like this horse as well and think the strategy is spot on, without wanting to alienate myself I think too many people have a scattergun theory in a desperate search to say I backed the winner. Everyone has their own way of betting and who’s to say what’s right or wrong?

I personally won’t be betting in every race and some races are too trappy and some I don’t have a strong viewpoint on. So I’ll stick to the ones where I like a particular horse or angle. Getting back in the horse in question agree with all previously said but my one slight concern is I think his mark possibly doesn’t have much wiggle room? Also if my beloved Escaria Ten does come here then he’d be my main selection but happy to add HGL as a backup.

That's the point French Holly. The horse is kind of irrelevant. It's maximising the opportunity in the way that suits you best. You summed things up better in one paragraph than I have in a million words. But at the heart of if you can get your head around it and have the time you can run several strategies and methods to overlay profits. Each strategy essentially de-risks the other.

This one is pretty simple. Find the handicapper you really like.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Have to say I haven’t spent a great deal of time on the Ultima but I know the horse, his form stacks
up and Bailey has obviously seen his horse given a mark, rubbed his hands together and locked the horse away.
I’ll need to do more work on the field before I play but certainly has the right profile...

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm saying there's more than one way of skinning a cat. We all do singles. Some one or two a race. Some make a book, and lay off what they don't want. Some do doubles, trebles, trixies, yankees. Some add in some lifechangers. Then there's roll-ups, request-a-bets, etc.

Some bets are quite risky. Roll-ups would be a good example. There have been an untold amount of points that have gone down on roll-ups to my eye. This is just another strategy.

The objective is to make money, and I reckon over the long term anyone who gets Cheltenham and the handicaps can make really good money if they have a consistent stratgegy and are very selective.

Don't forget I'm not suggesting going all in at skinny prices. I'm suggesting 33's down to 25's, to 22's, 20's, 16's, 14's, 12's 10's 8's, etc, a point or two each way at a time. Nothing singificant in the grand sheme of things. It might add up to a few points in the end, but the win return is significant, and the palce return isn't insignificant. The outlay compared to everything else over 365 days is quite frankly bugger all.

I'm sharing my own experience of doing this. I don't have to, or need to. It's not an ego thing. It's actually the opposite. I've spent years doing my own thing and I've never really shared it until I started posting here, where I see lots of people doing things that I've done for a lot of years. Some finding there way. Others who are just as capable and experienced as me. And everything inbetween. On the other hand I don't want to teach anyone to suck eggs either. We all have our methods, and sometimes it pays to stick to them and do what you know and are comforatble with.

But I can categorically say this type of bet works, and it's been very profitable. It may not this year. As with any of our bets there's no cast iron guarantee, But there's a fairly fundamental reason why this is a good bet. Big odds, one horse, rather than several, and reduced timescale risk is at the heart of it, And it's very logical when you think about it.

Not disputing that.... I was just surprised it had it's own thread I suppose rather than diary section or the Ultima thread.

If I was going to do it with one horse, it'd be Column Of Certainty ....


I guess it's just "why Happygolucky"..... although I am on, I know SW is keen too, and plenty of others I see.

 

[Outlaw]

He's an obvious one to continue to shorten, trainer says he's going to the race, he has course form and appears progressive. Win or lose he certainly appears the type you'll comfortably beat the book with and that's all what we start out to do. Another potential positive for him is having Bass on, he will have him prominent and attacking the fences which helps eliminate the chance of traffic and problems which is so apparent in big field chases. He's been as good as any jockey over fences this year imo and i'd always rather have a prominent racer in these types of hcaps personally.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

If I was going to do it with one horse, it'd be Column Of Certainty ....

I guess it's just "why Happygolucky"..... although I am on, I know SW is keen too, and plenty of others I see.

Seems an obvious double now....

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I’ve followed you in Spectre as think I have a couple of non-runners in this race and know this one has been getting an increasing following.

I get what you are saying about letting your hair day on one or two. I think my biggest potential single is Gallyhill as like to have a good swing on something at big odds when NRNB. The only thing I don’t get is your suggestion of backing a horse down from 33s to 8s when all the horse is doing is sat in his box. Isn’t it better just to have your big swing at the biggest prices available especially when NRNB. I’ve backed Happy Go Lucky at 20s NRNB but no way will I add anymore at shorter unless with free bets.

 

[Spectre]

An interesting read. How do you mean this kind of bet can be profitable? Isn’t it the case that the antepost market for handicaps just develops a little later than the graded races so there’s still more juice in them?

Also, if you don’t mind me asking, why did you pick Happygolucky other than his being a novice? What’s made you so sweet on him that you’re willing to make him your biggest win of the week?

The answer to your first question is yes. At the start of the thought process, we're close to the Festival and this is a horse that was 33/1 and has a confirmed target.

The handicaps aren't actually so hard to work out once you know what's going there. He is. It's comfirmed.

So to the rationale. The winner of the Ultima is almost always found in the first 5 or 6 in the betting, and I'd put my house on the fact that he will be given his profile. Then given law of averages say 3 of the top 5 will also fit this profle I have a 50% chance of having a placed horse. My average odds will most likely be somemwhere around 16/1, so the maths there is pretty easy.

The Ultima has a maximum field of 24 runners. History says a horse from the Hennessy (Ladbroke Gold Cup) or a novice will win this. Of the former only Aye Right is likely to fit the bill. Of the latter there are an average of six novices in recent sesons. In price terms usually two or three that fit the profile. Most of th efield you cna completely write off.

Using that math, one Hennessy, and three novices are genuine contenders. He's one of four horses I could possibly shortlist. Of course I don't know what the final entries will be. I have done a thorough trawl of the possibles, and there are very few horses I fear. Currently Aye Right and Drashel Dasher, both of who I think he is better handicapped than. And then there's Gordon. Escaria Ten. Coco Beach. Maybe Farclas. What else? The Irish National is a big draw for his best staying chaser whichever that one is. The first two are far more exposed than a proper handicap plot fot this, and Farclas is more likely for the Plate. In other words I don't think Gordon has anything plotted for this. Willie never does. Hendo and Nicholls have no idea with this race usually. The big trainers lack genuinely well handicapped contenders. They usually do though.

The English trainers to win this race in recent years are Bridgewater, Nick Williams, David Pipe, Colin Tizzard, Alan King, Neil Mulholland, etc. The placed trainers are similar trainers. Just the mould that Kim Bailey fits. In other words a decent unexposed UK staying chaser that jumps and travels. Happygolucky fits the mould, his profile is perfect, he's been targeted here, he has the requisite Cheltenham experience, and his trainer has a really good handle on what's required. Plus his serious rivals have fallen by the wayside. Cloth Cap bypasses the race, Kildisart is injured, Discorama won't get over his setback in time, and the Conditional is either getting his mark blown and heading to the Gold Cup, or having a hard race too close to the Festival this weekend.

I'm happy to debate any horse put forward to rival Happygolucky. It's impossible to put a guartanteed horse up at a big price in handicap before the entries are out, but he's close to as good as it gets, and I'll give it a damned good go.

 

[Lobos]

Good luck to you Sceptre. No different to a number of us on here who appear to have a personal favourite in amongst our Portfolios which, if things pan out, would pull in the biggest return. Pretty much every year I fall on one which I really fancy and tend to go overboard on deliberately . This year it's Al Boum Photo. Obviously not the best betting strategy but , when they come off, it can be very lucrative.

 

[Morley Street]

Most interesting thread for some time Spectre and I’m in... strategy has worked for me before and I was kinda trying it with School Boy Hours but why not have 2 darts. As Q says tho it can be high risk as is highly geared