December ‘25 Yankee

[Carnage at Taunton]

I prefer to differ. The New Lion started at 3/1 on the day for the Turners (Though I am sure bigger was available on the day), you had nrmb protection and he had already won a grade 1 beating some of the best Britain has. Mydaddypaddy has looked impressive but won a couple of basic walkovers. Mullins has yet to show his hand and we still have many of the significant Irish trials to come. Hard to see him being much shorter than 5/1 on the day unless Mullins horses are garbage, though even then they will likely be overbet still. No Drama This End I can justify a bit more especially as he is a bigger price with less to prove than MDP. However, Nicholls has a poor record in the race having yet to win it though often thinking he has a strong contender and it's debateable whether he truly knows what it takes to win the race. I would be happy taking a couple of points less on both with NRMB and a better idea of the standard of opposition.

Think I’m looking at it without any horse I’ve not seen or heard of in Ireland.
Just looking at possible good ones that have already looked impressive and that imo will shorten, and have their respective targets set already.
I have no problem with differing opinions, this is a debatable thread after all.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

With regards to Mullins……
Maybe he ain’t got anything good enough?
Certainly ain’t see much so far.
And certainly ain’t wasting my time trying to think of one.
See what Xmas brings I guess.

 

[Runragged]

Think I’m looking at it without any horse I’ve not seen or heard of in Ireland.
Just looking at possible good ones that have already looked impressive and that imo will shorten, and have their respective targets set already.
I have no problem with differing opinions, this is a debatable thread after all.

And I'm looking at it in general rather than the thread it is on! Like you say there is a strong likelihood the races stated will be where they go and whilst there may not a massive amount to be gained at the prices, at least getting horses to the right races is a good start for the yankee.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

And I'm looking at it in general rather than the thread it is on! Like you say there is a strong likelihood the races stated will be where they go and whilst there may not a massive amount to be gained at the prices, at least getting horses to the right races is a good start for the yankee.

Yes, getting them to the right races and actually getting 4 runners turn up!!
Not easy this early.

 

[Runragged]

With regards to Mullins……
Maybe he ain’t got anything good enough?
Certainly ain’t see much so far.
And certainly ain’t wasting my time trying to think of one.
See what Xmas brings I guess.

Think we were saying similar last year. It wasn't until Kopek was unleashed on Boxing Day with clearly a significant engine despite hurdling issues and then Final Demand at the DRF we really saw what he had. Plus there was Salvator Mundi who we never saw until the Moscow Flyer in January.

 

[Quevega]

With regards to Mullins……
Maybe he ain’t got anything good enough?
Certainly ain’t see much so far.
And certainly ain’t wasting my time trying to think of one.
See what Xmas brings I guess.

Imagine saying this at the same time last year, and the year before and the year before that.
Is it not the same virtually every year ?

I mean, the New Lion upset the trends last year but was still available at 12-1 after winning the Challow on the bridle.
And Potter charm was available at 10-1 a week after winning the Formby hurdle, I think around 16-1 immediately after the race (not certain on this bit)

Both were unbeaten.

And you think Paddy & the Nicholls horse's prices are ok ?

They are definitely not. IMO
That is not to say one or both could prove to be value at the current price, but on everything we know and have seen this season and in recent times/previous years they most definitely are not. IMO

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Think we were saying similar last year. It wasn't until Kopek was unleashed on Boxing Day with clearly a significant engine despite hurdling issues and then Final Demand at the DRF we really saw what he had. Plus there was Salvator Mundi who we never saw until the Moscow Flyer in January.

Oh I’m well aware he could produce some
Just going to wait and see, it’s a Guessing game right now, hence the preference for those that have already been out and impressed

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Imagine saying this at the same time last year, and the year before and the year before that.
Is it not the same virtually every year ?

I mean, the New Lion upset the trends last year but was still available at 12-1 after winning the Challow on the bridle.
And Potter charm was available at 10-1 a week after winning the Formby hurdle, I think around 16-1 immediately after the race (not certain on this bit)

Both were unbeaten.

And you think Paddy & the Nicholls horse's prices are ok ?

They are definitely not. IMO
That is not to say one or both could prove to be value at the current price, but on everything we know and have seen this season and in recent times/previous years they most definitely are not. IMO

Yeah compared to what I’ve seen they are ok for the impression I got and the current opposition we know of.
I’m not interested in what might appear next few weeks as i ain’t got a clue how good any may be, but I do reserve the right to alter my opinion and
I could think differently next month, of course, but right now that’s my view.

And I thought the idea was to do the Yankee before Xmas?

 

[Eggs]

With regards to Mullins……
Maybe he ain’t got anything good enough?
Certainly ain’t see much so far.
And certainly ain’t wasting my time trying to think of one.
See what Xmas brings I guess.

….worth remembering the stat I posted a few weeks ago.

In the last 5 years Mullins has won 7 of the 15 Festival Novice Hurdle races and 6 of those 7 winners didn’t have their first run until December.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

….worth remembering the stat I posted a few weeks ago.

In the last 5 years Mullins has won 7 of the 15 Festival Novice Hurdle races and 6 of those 7 winners didn’t have their first run until December.

Not long to wait Eggs, to find out.

 

[Quevega]

Oh I’m well aware he could produce some
Just going to wait and see, it’s a Guessing game right now, hence the preference for those that have already been out and impressed

Is it guessing though ?
He already has at least 4 or 5 maiden winners who looked just as impressive winning their maidens and lower grade races and almost certainly in deeper races than here in the UK. Than either of the UK horses in question.
And then we know from previous years that he tends to run his better options in maidens at xmas.

Ask yourself this question, would the horses that Paddy and Nicholls horse beat have been able to win an average maiden in Ireland ?

The reason the market is priced like it is, is because Mullins has at least double digit golden fanny boxes in his shop.
And we have 3 or 4 in the UK.

Buying a golden fanny box when there is less of them around is gonna cost you more. And it might end up being a smelly fanny box. The UK fanny boxes in the 2 speedy novice hurdles often turn out to be.

Having said that, you never know

I think both have looked very good so far, and the 2 Henderson horses also looked smart.
Fingers crossed they all get competitive, but it's likely they will thin out to one or two realistic contenders by March.
And the Irish will have 80% of the fields.


edit - no idea where the golden fanny box came from

 

[Quevega]

Yeah compared to what I’ve seen they are ok for the impression I got and the current opposition we know of.
I’m not interested in what might appear next few weeks as i ain’t got a clue how good any may be, but I do reserve the right to alter my opinion and
I could think differently next month, of course, but right now that’s my view.

And I thought the idea was to do the Yankee before Xmas?

You'd be rubbish on Deal or no Deal.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Is it guessing though ?
He already has at least 4 or 5 maiden winners who looked just as impressive winning their maidens and lower grade races and almost certainly in deeper races than here in the UK. Than either of the UK horses in question.
And then we know from previous years that he tends to run his better options in maidens at xmas.

Ask yourself this question, would the horses that Paddy and Nicholls horse beat have been able to win an average maiden in Ireland ?

The reason the market is priced like it is, is because Mullins has at least double digit golden fanny boxes in his shop.
And we have 3 or 4 in the UK.

Buying a golden fanny box when there is less of them around is gonna cost you more. And it might end up being a smelly fanny box. The UK fanny boxes in the 2 speedy novice hurdles often turn out to be.

Having said that, you never know

I think both have looked very good so far, and the 2 Henderson horses also looked smart.
Fingers crossed they all get competitive, but it's likely they will thin out to one or two realistic contenders by March.
And the Irish will have 80% of the fields.


edit - no idea where the golden fanny box came from

Yeah I take your points and fair enough.
In answer to your question, probably not but I think the two I’ve backed are very good, as imo are the two of Hendos you mention. I’m not as sure on their races though, although I have gambled on their targets.
Anyway as you say, you never know!!
I’m happy to stick to
My guns…. for now

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

You'd be rubbish on Deal or no Deal.

Hahaha probably right

 

[Durham Edition]

Yes, getting them to the right races and actually getting 4 runners turn up!!
Not easy this early.

Especially when I have said I would pick before the xmas races to maybe try and grab some extra value

 

[Daisycutter]

Yeah I take your points and fair enough.
In answer to your question, probably not but I think the two I’ve backed are very good, as imo are the two of Hendos you mention. I’m not as sure on their races though, although I have gambled on their targets.
Anyway as you say, you never know!!
I’m happy to stick to
My guns…. for now

Nicholls said this on No Drama This End

I'll enter him in both [the Turners & Albert Bartlett].

"If the ground was good, he'd potentially want three miles. If it was soft, two-and-a-half is enough."

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Nicholls said this on No Drama This End

I'll enter him in both [the Turners & Albert Bartlett].

"If the ground was good, he'd potentially want three miles. If it was soft, two-and-a-half is enough."

Good ground at the festival?
And even then it’s only potentially want 3 miles.
I have no doubt he would stay 3m as imo they see him as a future gold cup prospect, but I would be amazed if they did that this season.
They did that with Stay away fay.
Yes he won the AB, and then aside from a couple of Nov chases that horse has been disappointing since.
I don’t see them doing that again with a horse they think a lot of.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Think it was good on the Friday the festival just gone, on the chase course it was at worst good, I'd say faster than that.
Although I dont see NDTE going 3m over hurdles, if the ground is good or quicker he'd probably not run him rather than step him up.
All about the future with him, Nicholls always has an eye on chasing careers over hurdling.

FWIW I like your double CaT, the Formby could blow apart the English novice hurdle pecking order, or cement Mydaddys place at the top of it.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Think it was good on the Friday the festival just gone, on the chase course it was at worst good, I'd say faster than that.
Although I dont see NDTE going 3m over hurdles, if the ground is good or quicker he'd probably not run him rather than step him up.
All about the future with him, Nicholls always has an eye on chasing careers over hurdling.

FWIW I like your double CaT, the Formby could blow apart the English novice hurdle pecking order, or cement Mydaddys place at the top of it.

Officially good/soft according to SL website, but we know that may not be totally accurate by the time the AB was run.
Fair point re not running him, would be no shock to me.
Yep the Formby will hopefully prove informative in a positive way for Paddy.
I really like him and loved his jumping last time, he’s a strong galloper with a bit of speed, looks am ideal type for the Supreme imo.

 

[Quevega]

I think 2 horses that are probably overpriced at the moment, and unlikely to run over xmas are.

Old Park Star 14-1 Turners
Echoing Silence 14-1 Mare Novice

Old Park Star was very impressive the last day and looked like he had tons in hand, and even though I think those in behind were probably shite, the form of his maiden has worked out ok. He looks the right type for the Turners as he looks like he can relax and has an injection of pace when needed and a high enough cruising speed.

I don't know what his next race might be but imagine they may step him up in trip and go for the race on trials day at cheltenham end of Jan.
I doubt he will run over xmas or in the challow, and the owner/trainers other horse looks set for the easier task (on paper) of Newbury next week rather than the formby. This tactic of keeping the dream alive by taking the softer option means that if he is victorious in the introductory hurdle this should help connections keep the 2 horses on different paths and have Act of Innocence in the supreme and Old Park in the turners.

Thats my fucking theory anyhow.

De Bromheads mare was one of my fancies last year but she looked a baby when getting beat in a maiden and I know they think a lot of her, so they decided to wait for another year and ran her in a bumper in the spring.
She has looked impressive enough on her 2 starts this season and the last race looks solid form.
I think they feel she has enough experience now and is likely to have her next run at the festival in the mares novice.
Not even priced on exchange and I think she ought to be the favourite.

I think at 14-1 there is room for easily beating SP, although I suppose with them both not likely to run for a while at least, then it's possibly not that urgent to get them in the book right now.

So ignore all that