Dear Diary

[isitmarchyet]

He’s a fannybettor

:glee:

You have to admire his dedication...

 

[Odin]

I would though say that the way people record "roll ups" always seems to be a little disingenuous and that people aren't really being truthful with themselves. For me if you have 1pt on a 3/1 winner in a double with say constitution hill at 6/4 then you have put 4 points on Constitution Hill at 6/4, not 1 point at 9/1. If I could back said 3/1 winner at 4/1 with a different bookmaker and get 13/8 on Constitution Hill with a third bookmaker then why would I not do a single on 4/1 and then place any winnings on at 13/8 - it's essentially the same bet and the same decision but you have got better odds. Why would you record one bet as 1pt on Constitution Hill at 9/1 and another as 5pts on Constitution Hill at 13/8 - makes no sense. The funds that we put on any single bet must have come from somewhere - what if I had a 1pt winner last week at 9/1 and then decided today to put it all on Constitution Hill at 6/4, would be a bit mad to record that as 1pt on Constitution Hill at 24/1. Fact is that if you put on a double (or multiple) then unless it's related in some way (e.g. win today and at Festival) then you are nearly always better off putting on a single (to take advantage of different bookmaker odds) and reinvesting the winnings - and if you find it difficult after the first winner to stick multiple points on at 6/4 then perhaps you have been kidding yourself...

I do a lot of roll ups and I agree with this to a point, but it depends on what you're trying to achieve with the roll up.

For me there's two elements to it - the first is that I bet every weekend anyway so the challenge of seeing how good my 'best' bet is on the weekend is quite appealing. However, the financial reward of doing the horses in singles is quite boring to me, so trying to add a Cheltenham horse to it gives me a chance of winning big(ger).

The second point is what would your second outlay be. I know we don't normally do monetary stakes here but I'll use them to illustrate the point here. Last year, my only successful roll up, was 16/1 Clan Legend at Aintree in December with 10/1 Flooring Porter Stayers. That's probably a sad indictment of my ability to pick winners every weekend last year, but was actually put up on here in advance of the race (post 113 of my diary last year) so is a real life example. Let's say a given person's 1pt stake is a fiver. To get the same return on FP as the double, you'd have to put nearly ?100 on in a single - does anyone really think that's not gonna attract suspicion if you're typically a fiver better? Obviously that scales up as well - a tenner would require best part of ?200 etc. In those longer priced ones, there could be a real benefit if you have an edge but you know you're gonna lose more than you win so it depends on what you're trying to achieve.

This year, I've done a lot more shorter priced horses around the evens mark and I'm starting to come to the conclusion that they probably aren't worth the roll ups in the same way I thought unless you're really selective with them as, even though the strike rate is a bit better, you probably do lose more money than you gain and are probably better off just doing an ew single at e.g 33/1, because you obviously don't get the ew angle when you do a roll up. So I've started pivoting towards that method more in the last month - I'll know more about how that turns out after this festival.

The point about being disingenuous with stakes is heavily dependent on whether you think it matters that you've lost 5 points on a specific horse (e.g. Constitution Hill) or you've just lost 5 points. For me, I'm more bothered about how many points I've lost, not necessarily where I've lost them if I've got my appropriate return on a horse. I'm not convinced that's the best way of thinking, but it's where I'm at atm.

 

[Lobos]

I think as long as you put (RU) next to your bet in your diary then the inflated price will be clear to everyone. That's how I see it anyway.

 

[Irish Rugby]

More comments on this issue than on the Gold Cup thread, as an example (Oh no. Even I've added to it)

 

[Hardy Eustace]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

 

[Kevloaf]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

Well he won't beat Vauban so you might as well lay it off now mate at 6/4?

 

[Quevega]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

When adding to your diary.
Make sure you put (RU) next to your bet.
And use a different colour.

 

[Irish Rugby]

Just landed a 34 fold accumulator with constitution hill the last leg. I’m now on him at 100 trillion, billion to 1. Hope he gets there in one piece.

And then Nicky goes and sends him chasing, after pressure from Betway, who otherwise would be facing bankruptcy.

 

[robith]

And then Nicky goes and sends him chasing, after pressure from Betway, who otherwise would be facing bankruptcy.

lol at the idea betway would lay the bet in the first place

 

[Lobos]

Well he won't beat Vauban so you might as well lay it off now mate at 6/4?

So true. You just know he's going to blow out all those Constitution Hill and Honeysuckle bets. Can see the Mullins interview now. Bookies saviour.

 

[Spectre]

Deleted and fair enough Lobos

 

[Lobos]

Hope this now draws a line under it as it's really pissing me and many others off. Getting pathetic now. Let's get back to Cheltenham Festival talk please.

 

[Humble Pie]

Thank you all for your messages
I’m not up to speed on the Forum but from afar I sense a slight tension amongst a few that is bound to happen when you have passionate opinions about the sport we love
if those opinions are expressed respectfully then no offence is given and no offence taken
Best wishes to all

 

[JackieMoon33]

I’ll try and keep my feedback succinct:

1. No rules needed for diaries. Let people format how they want and after time to their hearts content if they so choose. It’s easy enough to not read the diaries you’re suspicious of. Personally, if I was placing the number of bets some do in the diaries, it would be the least efficient way of recording things. Excel is your friend guys.

2. I don’t think it should annoy anyone if someone has an opinion on a horse or race but does not back it up with a bet or diary.

3. In my opinion the diaries have actually caused a lot of discussion to move away from the main threads and on to the respective diaries. This makes it incredibly difficult to keep up with horses that have been mentioned and cases made. For example, there are now novice hurdlers being put up and discussed on diary threads that have not been on the main novice hurdle thread. So for someone who wants to read up on all opinions, it’s an impossible task trawling through every single diary. I’m also sceptical as to how much more ‘secure’ the members section is anyway.

 

[Joleg]

'I’m also sceptical as to how much more ‘secure’ the members section is anyway'.

Thought this myself, no evidence to back it up but glad i'm not the only one that's thought it

 

[JackieMoon33]

'I’m also sceptical as to how much more ‘secure’ the members section is anyway'.

Thought this myself, no evidence to back it up but glad i'm not the only one that's thought it

From my understanding you only need to have an account to access the members section. Nothing to stop any lurking bookies or Twitter rip-off merchants creating one.

 

[Kevloaf]

From my understanding you only need to have an account to access the members section. Nothing to stop any lurking bookies or Twitter rip-off merchants creating one.

People get vetted now.... but it's not that hard :eagerness:

Never really see anyone claim it is though, it's not a secure area of the internet, it just stops it coming up unless someone puts effort in...

Ultimately it's a public forum

 

[JackieMoon33]

People get vetted now.... but it's not that hard :eagerness:

Never really see anyone claim it is though, it's not a secure area of the internet, it just stops it coming up unless someone puts effort in...

Ultimately it's a public forum

Exactly, part of the success here is it’s openness, even though it could lead to some exposure. Nothing anyone can do about that and it’s just something we have to accept. But I certainly would not take the members section being less risky in anyway.

 

[Ice]

If bookies or twitter folk are gleaning information from on here it just goes to show how knowledgeable some of you guys are.

 

[JackieMoon33]

If bookies or twitter folk are gleaning information from on here it just goes to show how knowledgeable some of you guys are.

For sure - probably the only way to take it is as a compliment to the forum and certain contributors. Someone mentioned that they were alerted to bookies doing it but I’ve also seen Tweets that came very shortly after information on here was posted.