Day 4 Yankee - ManyClouds

[Istabraq]

The draw has been made and all managers are now known, @Many Clouds kindly volunteered to steer Friday's ship.
Same as the monthly yankees, post suggestions and discuss in here and @Many Clouds will decide who is worth listening to and who talks complete bollocks and will hopefully find us all four winners.
We'll set the deadline at Sunday evening for all yankees but leave a little creative licence for the later week yankee managers if key decisions aren't confirmed.
Best of luck.....

 

[Eudipe]

Getting in early with 4 EW suggestions:-

Celtic Dino (County)
Only By Night (Mares Chase)
Kazansky (A.Bartlett)
He Can't Dance (M.Pipe)

 

[Many Clouds]

Thanks to the claw for being picked, gonna go for 4 winners here no each way nonsense and also going to narrow it down to 4 races to pick from to make it a bit more straight forward:

County Hurdle
Triumph
Mares Chase
Gold Cup

Feel like the other 3 races are much harder to call especially the Bartlett and Hunter chase as they frequently throw up big priced, unexpected winners. Was a bit of a toss up between the County/MP but with the record of Mullins/Skelton in the race the County feels a bit easier to narrow down.

So two rules:

1. Win Only
2. Pick from the 4 races above.

if anyone has a fancy in those 4 races then get it jotted down and give good reasoning, im a sucker for stats n detail.

 

[Istabraq]

Win only ?

Mares - Panic Attack
Gold Cup - Gaelic Warrior
That's all I got...

 

[Joleg]

i think i'd add Proactif to @Istabraq's suggestions

 

[Joeski29]

Hardly reinventing the wheel but I’d have Dinoblue as the anchor for the Yankee.

Once you take into account the weights the closest horse to her on official ratings is Spindleberry 8 pounds below, granted Jade de Grugy hasn’t ran enough to get an official rating over fences but we don’t know what her target will be and her form doesn’t stand out.

Form 211 this year, her only being against the boys when a race fit Found a Fifty beat her by 5 lengths .

 

[Lobos]

Hardly reinventing the wheel but I’d have Dinoblue as the anchor for the Yankee.

Once you take into account the weights the closest horse to her on official ratings is Spindleberry 8 pounds below, granted Jade de Grugy hasn’t ran enough to get an official rating over fences but we don’t know what her target will be and her form doesn’t stand out.

Form 211 this year, her only being against the boys when a race fit Found a Fifty beat her by 5 lengths .

Sorry but can't have this at all. Panic Attack is my Nap of the meeting and I believe she'll win this comfortably. What she's done this season is incredible and she hasn't stopped yet. Dinoblue is a very good Mare but she has regressed and will find it very difficult to beat a Mare on such an upward curve.

 

[Kauto’s star]

Sorry but can't have this at all. Panic Attack is my Nap of the meeting and I believe she'll win this comfortably. What she's done this season is incredible and she hasn't stopped yet. Dinoblue is a very good Mare but she has regressed and will find it very difficult to beat a Mare on such an upward curve.

I second Dinoblue being vulnerable. There’s a few good ones turning up here. Like the panic attack case, also I’m all over Spindleberry who obviously wasn’t trying in the Irish gold cup. Would take these two against the field.

 

[Joeski29]

Dinoblue goes into the race with an official rating 2 pounds higher than last year so not sure she’s regressed.

Panic Attack has had a good year but this will be a big step up for her going from winning handicaps and a listed race up to grade 2 class.

Will be interesting to see who Townend picks out of Dinoblue and Spindleberry (assuming it’s just between those two) but might be tough for Spindleberry giving weight to the field, even if it’s only 2 pounds.

 

[SeeYouThen]

Dinoblue goes into the race with an official rating 2 pounds higher than last year so not sure she’s regressed.

Panic Attack has had a good year but this will be a big step up for her going from winning handicaps and a listed race up to grade 2 class.

Will be interesting to see who Townend picks out of Dinoblue and Spindleberry (assuming it’s just between those two) but might be tough for Spindleberry giving weight to the field, even if it’s only 2 pounds.

Walsh will be on Dinoblue. Paul will decide between Jade & Spindle.

 

[Joeski29]

Of course Walsh will be on him, keep forgetting about the green and gold

 

[Eggs]

….i know @Lobos likes him, I’m giving a shout to Helnwein 40-1 NRNB Hill County Hurdle. Highlighted and case made on ATR;

‘You need a strong-travelling hold-up horse in the County Hurdle and Alan King's charge fits the bill perfectly. His second in the ultra-competitive Swinton Hurdle in the spring was followed by another silver medal in the Greatwood at Cheltenham in November, a line of form that has aged well. There he was beaten by the ultra-progressive Champion Hurdle hipster horse, Alexei, despite conceding first run to him on the sharper Old Course. The pair were well clear of the rest and his subsequent run at Ascot is not an issue as he was stuck in behind in a slowly-run contest. The County will suit him down to the ground.’

 

[Kevloaf]

I second Dinoblue being vulnerable. There’s a few good ones turning up here. Like the panic attack case, also I’m all over Spindleberry who obviously wasn’t trying in the Irish gold cup. Would take these two against the field.

Do you think she wasn't trying?
Why wouldn't they have been trying?

I'd be put off as she just seemed completely off it, and without an explanation that'd worry me without seeing her again to trust she will be at 100%?

 

[Benjy23]

Do you think she wasn't trying?
Why wouldn't they have been trying?

I'd be put off as she just seemed completely off it, and without an explanation that'd worry me without seeing her again to trust she will be at 100%?

The theory of her not trying is Willie wanted to show the owners she wasn't good enough for a Gold Cup so she ended up in the Mares... And prove himself right.

Actually a good race this. For me she's the least I like from the top four.

 

[riccirich]

Do you think she wasn't trying?
Why wouldn't they have been trying?

I'd be put off as she just seemed completely off it, and without an explanation that'd worry me without seeing her again to trust she will be at 100%?

I'd agree with a couple others here that theres a good chance they weren't trying with her at the drf. Mullins laughed off the suggestion of her going for the gold cup after she won in the UK, he doesnt want her anywhere near the race, it was the owner driving it.

I'd say there's a fair chance mullins thought if she tried she might run a decent race and maybe nick a place at best in his eyes, and then the owner would want to go gold cup, which wouldn't suit mullins as he already has plenty of options for it that he views as better horses. So he'd be leaving himself one short in the mares chase for the sake of having a third/fourth string in the gold cup.

No evidence obviously, just a theory, and one that makes a lot of sense when you know it was only the owner who wanted to run in the gold cup.

 

[Kevloaf]

I still don't agree that it makes a lot of sense

If anything, they can't say she didn't stay so they'd be more than right to force her to find out in the big one?

Also if she'd tried, why on earth would that have been anything other than win-win for Willie, she either did really well and he's not afraid to be mod handed .... not like he NEEDS her in the Mares Chase is it?

No real logic to that theory IMO, it's trying to be too clever.... I will stop thinking about it because I'm getting confused

 

[riccirich]

I still don't agree that it makes a lot of sense

If anything, they can't say she didn't stay so they'd be more than right to force her to find out in the big one?

Also if she'd tried, why on earth would that have been anything other than win-win for Willie, she either did really well and he's not afraid to be mod handed .... not like he NEEDS her in the Mares Chase is it?

No real logic to that theory IMO, it's trying to be too clever.... I will stop thinking about it because I'm getting confused

They cant say she didn’t stay, but they can say she was out of her comfort zone against top class horses, and she belongs against other mares. Or maybe she was really out of her comfort zone something about it just didnt sit right with me when I watched it live, even just where she was positioned, she wasnt really involved in the race.

I dont think mullins thinks she's good enough for the gold cup cup to start with, so worst case scenario for mullins if she was trying, would have been she ran her best race and only finished a close enough third/fourth or something, and owner then wants to go gold cup, but shes beaten by fact to file/ gaelic/ galopin, and then mullins is kind of stuck with sending her to the gold cup, even though he'd think he had 2-3 better than her. And way it turned out with jade de grugy looking to be going mares hurdle and kargese looking a two miler, he would have then been left with only one in the mares chase, and no ride for townend in it. While spindleberry would be down the pecking order in the gold cup and not really needed for it.

Or....

She's not good enough, but I've a feeling I'm right

 

[Eudipe]

I'd agree with a couple others here that theres a good chance they weren't trying with her at the drf. Mullins laughed off the suggestion of her going for the gold cup after she won in the UK, he doesnt want her anywhere near the race, it was the owner driving it.

I'd say there's a fair chance mullins thought if she tried she might run a decent race and maybe nick a place at best in his eyes, and then the owner would want to go gold cup, which wouldn't suit mullins as he already has plenty of options for it that he views as better horses. So he'd be leaving himself one short in the mares chase for the sake of having a third/fourth string in the gold cup.

No evidence obviously, just a theory, and one that makes a lot of sense when you know it was only the owner who wanted to run in the gold cup.

I know someone who met the owner at a recent social event and they reportedly weren't very happy... they took the general view that the trainer effectively considers the horse as his, to do with as he pleases and that the DRF debacle was by design to curtail the owner's stated ambition (which is in opposition to the trainer's preference for Cheltenham).

 

[Eudipe]

I suggest Selma de Vary (Triumph) as a selection in a Friday Win Yankee.

I rewatched her performance in the Spring Juvenile and she was more taking than I remembered from the live race (when I was more focussed on Mange Tout & Narciso Has). She was ridden quietly from the rear and made her move at the hottest part of the race all the way round the final bend off the back straight. She hurdled well in the main but smashed the last and still hit the line / ran on well in what was the standout trial imo. I'd now rate her as the standout horse left in the Triumph on ability and if Townend rides her there I think she has the potential to go off as a strong Favourite. (In recent interviews, both Willie Mullins & David Casey have made the point that they expect her to make significant improvement from the DRF run.)

 

[Many Clouds]

All gone quiet so will just pick one now cos gonna be busy tomorrow.

County - Murcia - Has looked the obvious pick for a few weeks, hopefully Paul rides.

Triumph - Selma De Vary - Highest rated left in the race, eye catching run on her first start for Willie, should come on a bundle for that.

Mares Chase - Dinoblue - Class horse in the race, had a lovely prep away from the hustle n bustle of the big races to get her spot on for this, whats not to like.

Gold Cup - The Jukebox Man - Improving with every run, to come back from injury and look as good as he has winning a strong King George on only his 4th start over fences makes me think he is a special horse.

549/1 Antepost 365 or 432/1 Hills NRNB.