Day 3 Yankee - Nortonscoin200

[Istabraq]

The draw has been made and all managers are now known, @nortonscoin200 kindly volunteered to steer Thursday's ship.
Same as the monthly yankees, post suggestions and discuss in here and @nortonscoin200 will decide who is worth listening to and who talks complete bollocks and will hopefully find us all four winners.
We'll set the deadline at Sunday evening for all yankees but leave a little creative licence for the later week yankee managers if key decisions aren't confirmed.
Best of luck.....

 

[nortonscoin200]

Ok, let's get this show on the road.

Great to be given a shot at FJ Festival yankee redemption after my total eclipse of the scoreboard in 2020.

Big thank you to the crane for hauling my ball out of the swamp, to Kev for not ordering a redraw and Eggs for asking if I fancied going for gold again.

Now let's get down to talking bollocks.

Do we pick four shorties and have done with it:

BAMBINO FEVER 11-10
LOSSIEMOUTH or WODHOOH. 8-11/ 11-10
TEAHUPOO 7-4
FACT TO FILE 4-7

The 4-timer with Lossiemouth pays less than 15-1 and substituting Wodhooh only takes it up to 18-1 (365 nrnb prices).

It's a pretty dull strategy but would no doubt spark at least a frisson of excitement if the first three hosed up and we were left with Fact To File to bring home the bacon.

Alternatively we could go hybrid and perm a couple of the above shorties with handicap hotpots Supremely West and Jeriko Du Reponet.

BAMBINO FEVER 11-10
TEAHUPOO 7-4
SUPREMELY WEST 4-1
JERIKO DU REPONET 4-1

That fourfold pays a shade over 143-1 with 365 and shows a tad more ambition.

Or we could maybe go for an each way yankee using the three handicaps and something from one of the championship races that will hit the frame at decent double figure prices.

Right now this is the strategy that appeals to me as more fun but let's see what we can come up with and tailor the yankee accordingly.

Much appreciate anyone who makes a case for something hiding in a dark corner.

 

[Istabraq]

For what it's worth @nortonscoin200 I'm of the view all the short favs on Thur are vulnerable bar Fact to File.
If we get a match in the mares then it's a coin flip and either could go off fav
Teahuppo was easily brushed aside last year, no obvious reason why that won't happen again
And the favs recent record in the mares novice is poor.

Plenty of value in the handicaps as well as finding one or two against the shorties for me....

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

If you decide to go for the EW option I would suggest you take a close look at how well MILLSTREAM LADY qualified for the Pertemps when coming 2nd to Staffordshire Knot. She is 50/1 AP and 40/1 NRNB.

 

[nortonscoin200]

If you decide to go for the EW option I would suggest you take a close look at how well MILLSTREAM LADY qualified for the Pertemps when coming 2nd to Staffordshire Knot. She is 50/1 AP and 40/1 NRNB.

Love the price @BuckingThe Trend and she's obviously in the form of her life.

Got a decent weight too and assume she'll be claimer ridden again.

Very exposed after 21 hurdle races and maybe that's the downside. Can she improve again off a mark of 136?

But definitely one to consider, thanks a lot.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Koktail Divin - As has been noted in the JR thread, has been hammered in the betting today and tonight, still 9/2 available and I think he is extremely well treated. Honestly thought he was going to get 155+.

Not many horses can win a beginners in Ireland by 21 lengths and only get 1lb from the British handicapper.

 

[Eudipe]

4 EW suggestions using the three handicaps plus the Mares Novice Hurdle:-

Full Of Life (Mares Novice)
Sixmilebridge (Jack Richards)
Supremely West (Pertemps)
Prends Garde A Toi (Kim Muir)

 

[Lobos]

Koktail Divin - As has been noted in the JR thread, has been hammered in the betting today and tonight, still 9/2 available and I think he is extremely well treated. Honestly thought he was going to get 155+.

Not many horses can win a beginners in Ireland by 21 lengths and only get 1lb from the British handicapper.

Agree but I'd have Sixmilebridge on the same mark. KD is a big danger but there's nothing between the two imo and Cheltenham form might just swing it for the English runner. Fergal hasn't had a festival winner yet and the fact that they are going for this race over the Grade 1's tells me they reckon he has a huge chance of breaking his duck with this lad.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Koktail Divin - As has been noted in the JR thread, has been hammered in the betting today and tonight, still 9/2 available and I think he is extremely well treated. Honestly thought he was going to get 155+.

Not many horses can win a beginners in Ireland by 21 lengths and only get 1lb from the British handicapper.

Thanks @ComplyOrDie - this one surely has to be on the short-list.

Were we to include him on the team sheet maybe we should be looking at a win yankee rather than going each way.

Thoughts anyone?

 

[nortonscoin200]

Sixmilebridge on the radar of @Eudipe and @Lobos and he's still 10-1 with 365. But I don't imagine that'll still be around at the weekend.

He's the only horse I've backed for the race and his Cheltenham form this season looks strong.

Including Sixmilebridge at that price would also give us more scope for an each way yankee.

Supremely West - also touted by @Eudipe - does seem to have had his handicap mark massaged to perfection by Dan. Only 4-1 now but it's hard to get away from him seeming to have a very strong chance.

Prends Garde A Toi entered in the £100k Leinster National on Sunday so unless somebody knows where he's going we'll have to wait for decs on Friday before considering him for the Kim Muir.

Anyone with strong views on Kim Roque or Waterford Whispers (now into 7-1) for the KM.

Reckon we need to get this yankee sorted as soon as we can before prices get completely screwed.

 

[nortonscoin200]

One more thought before lights out.

If we go rogue and take the Millstream Lady (40-1 Pertemps) route how about Protektorst at 25-1 in the Ryanair. Both nrnb with 365.
Both have place prospects and throw in Sixmilehigh (10-1 nrnb JR also with 365) and you have the makings of a bet which gives us a decent return if 3 hit the frame.
Let’s hear about some decent outsiders so we have a decision to make.
Alternatively, what’s gonna win the Stayers. I’d be more than happy to take on Teahupoo.

 

[Eudipe]

FWIW Prends Gard A Toi is reportedly being aimed at the Kim Muir according to a couple of preview sources (including Jamie Codd). My first choice for the race is actually Uhavemeinstitches but unfortunately connections are considering her for the Leinster National (& possibly the Irish National) after she got 6lbs 'tax'.

I think Kim Roque is a solid EW alternative in the race and I am confident that Waterford Whispers is very well handicapped but I have strong concerns for him over the extended trip (and I felt these were echoed by HDB on Nick Luck daily recently where he seemed keener on running him in either the Plate or the J.Richards).

 

[Quevega]

Koktail Divin - As has been noted in the JR thread, has been hammered in the betting today and tonight, still 9/2 available and I think he is extremely well treated. Honestly thought he was going to get 155+.

Not many horses can win a beginners in Ireland by 21 lengths and only get 1lb from the British handicapper.

That race he won was dodgy though.
He was the only one trying.
His price now is very poor

He's actually been rated as against the other horses in the Browns, and is 1lb lower than Oscars Brother, top rated in the Browns is Kaid Dauthie 158, with Final Demand on 156. Western Fold 157.

So you're saying that if say he should be rated 155+ then he is on a par with those above. But we know if you or anyone priced that up he'd be the rag, even over 2m 5f on the new course.

Whats likely more in his favour in this race though, is the trip, as their is a doubt over further against potentially stronger stayers.

He is most certainly not A Plus Tard 2 as that horse was campaigned to run in a handicap, this one hasn't.

I think both this horse and sixmilebridge have fair enough marks, but the main reason they may run here is the trip.

I have backed them both mind you.
Neither is without a chance.
Just think something with more room for error in the marks allocated and campaigned to run here will likely be too good.

 

[Eggs]

….i looked at Diamond Geezer comp to see what’s been popular;

Outside the obvious, a few selections for Minella Sixo, Yeah Man and Letos in Pertemps.

Kim Muir looks wide open, a multitude of selections.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

One more thought before lights out.

If we go rogue and take the Millstream Lady (40-1 Pertemps) route how about Protektorst at 25-1 in the Ryanair. Both nrnb with 365.
Both have place prospects and throw in Sixmilehigh (10-1 nrnb JR also with 365) and you have the makings of a bet which gives us a decent return if 3 hit the frame.
Let’s hear about some decent outsiders so we have a decision to make.
Alternatively, what’s gonna win the Stayers. I’d be more than happy to take on Teahupoo.

I can't see either Protektorst or Sixmilehigh in the betting..................what about Koknarse Divin or Meetmebytheseashore or maybe Jayden's Cross ? ........or maybe go to bed a bit earlier ! .......anyways good luck with the Yankee !

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He's actually been rated as against the other horses in the Browns, and is 1lb lower than Oscars Brother, top rated in the Browns is Kaid Dauthie 158, with Final Demand on 156. Western Fold 157.

So you're saying that if say he should be rated 155+ then he is on a par with those above. But we know if you or anyone priced that up he'd be the rag, even over 2m 5f on the new course.

Whats likely more in his favour in this race though, is the trip, as their is a doubt over further against potentially stronger stayers.

He is most certainly not A Plus Tard 2 as that horse was campaigned to run in a handicap, this one hasn't.

I think both this horse and sixmilebridge have fair enough marks, but the main reason they may run here is the trip.

I have backed them both mind you.
Neither is without a chance.
Just think something with more room for error in the marks allocated and campaigned to run here will likely be too good.

No he's not, he's 5lbs below Oscars Brother in Britain, for a 3 length defeat over 3m. Oscars Brother has been given 155 for the National, 4lbs higher than in Ireland, Koktail Divin got 1lb! Oscars Brother is also only 8-10/1 shot for the BANC, and if they met in a handicap off them weights I'd certainly not be having Koktail Divin as a rag. All the other ratings you note are for Ireland, this is a handicap in Britain, the likelihood is not all of them would be left as they are, so they'd have to give him even more weight.

I also think Koktail Divin is a horse for the intermediate trip, not 3m, and if he was getting the weight in a handicap against the lot above over that trip I'd think he'd have a favourites chance as well, hence I think he is well handicapped. Off levels, maybe not, but then how many of them in the JR Novices Handicap Chase would? None would be my guess, which is why they are going for the handicap.

I disagree about A Plus Tard being campaigned as a handicapper, he won his beginners comfortably, beating the eventual Arkle winner (piss poor though it may be), then finished close up in a Grade 3, this all over the intermediate trip. Koktail Divin, whilst not in the same order, has done similar. Close up in a Grade 2 over a trip too far (potentially), then pissed up in his beginners. You don't have to agree, I don't expect you to, but they are of a similar mould, IMO.

I've backed Sixmilebridge too, but Regent's Stroll is the bet for me outside of Koktail Divin, as he is definitely well weighted if taking literal hurdles form into account, as he was ahead of Koktail Divin at Aintree in the Grade 1 that Honesty Policy won, that was off levels for and a 5 length difference, yet Koktail has to give RS 5lbs now too. The caveat to that is I think Koktail Divin has looked the better chaser so far, but that's not hard looking at what RS has done I also appreciate this may be by design, and it may look as though Koktail Divin hasn't been ridden with a handicap in mind all season, but I just think Henry is maybe a little bit more honest than some trainers, not all, but some!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Were we to include him on the team sheet maybe we should be looking at a win yankee rather than going each way.

Thoughts anyone?

I think you just make that call, mate.

I'll probably back all of them E/W regardless, which will please some

 

[Quevega]

No he's not, he's 5lbs below Oscars Brother in Britain, for a 3 length defeat over 3m. Oscars Brother has been given 155 for the National, 4lbs higher than in Ireland, Koktail Divin got 1lb! Oscars Brother is also only 8-10/1 shot for the BANC, and if they met in a handicap off them weights I'd certainly not be having Koktail Divin as a rag. All the other ratings you note are for Ireland, this is a handicap in Britain, the likelihood is not all of them would be left as they are, so they'd have to give him even more weight.

I also think Koktail Divin is a horse for the intermediate trip, not 3m, and if he was getting the weight in a handicap against the lot above over that trip I'd think he'd have a favourites chance as well, hence I think he is well handicapped. Off levels, maybe not, but then how many of them in the JR Novices Handicap Chase would? None would be my guess, which is why they are going for the handicap.

I disagree about A Plus Tard being campaigned as a handicapper, he won his beginners comfortably, beating the eventual Arkle winner (piss poor though it may be), then finished close up in a Grade 3, this all over the intermediate trip. Koktail Divin, whilst not in the same order, has done similar. Close up in a Grade 2 over a trip too far (potentially), then pissed up in his beginners. You don't have to agree, I don't expect you to, but they are of a similar mould, IMO.

I've backed Sixmilebridge too, but Regent's Stroll is the bet for me outside of Koktail Divin, as he is definitely well weighted if taking literal hurdles form into account, as he was ahead of Koktail Divin at Aintree in the Grade 1 that Honesty Policy won, that was off levels for and a 5 length difference, yet Koktail has to give RS 5lbs now too. The caveat to that is I think Koktail Divin has looked the better chaser so far, but that's not hard looking at what RS has done I also appreciate this may be by design, and it may look as though Koktail Divin hasn't been ridden with a handicap in mind all season, but I just think Henry is maybe a little bit more honest than some trainers, not all, but some!

apologies - when i was looking at the ratings on ATR I did doubt myself but didn't check.
On that basis he may be better treated on paper. I'd acknowledge that.
Still not convinced personally that 150 for either of the horses discussed is a winnable mark. Although I've backed them both so must think they have a chance. I just think something lower in the handicap might do them.
Definitely not convinced the UK handicapper has it right either, when compared to the UK horses that is.

 

[Lobos]

If we are trying to split Sixmilebridge and Koktail then their UK Hurdles rating may help a little. Sixmilebridge was rated 5lb superior. Both have looked better over fences. Personally feel Sixmilebridge has slightly more speed than Koktail and that the latter would potentially prefer further. Both would also not appreciate the ground drying out too much as this could tempt connections to step up to the BANC perhaps?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If we are trying to split Sixmilebridge and Koktail then their UK Hurdles rating may help a little. Sixmilebridge was rated 5lb superior. Both have looked better over fences. Personally feel Sixmilebridge has slightly more speed than Koktail and that the latter would potentially prefer further. Both would also not appreciate the ground drying out too much as this could tempt connections to step up to the BANC perhaps?

Looking at their respective form I'd say the ground wouldn't be a bother for either. I'm certainly not using it as an excuse for either or both of them not winning.

At bare minimum it will be G/S anyway.

My main concern with Sixmilebridge is how is he going to fair against better horses at the festival. I know he has Cheltenham form, but his run in the Turners last season was atrocious. Koktail Divin has to prove he can cope with the track too, in fairness.