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Davy Russell rides at the 2018 festival

jono

jono

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Similar to the Ruby thread, I wanted to put this into a thread though primarily to get a gauge and come the Festival week and quick place to find his handicap rides.

To repeat from another thread:

Flagged up by Leman on here beforehand - Davy Russell continues to excel in handicaps at Cheltenham.

In 2016 his 4 rides produced: 4112
In 2017 his 6 rides produced: 3301P4
(Diamond King pulled up but was hampered and made a few mistakes, and Long Call was disappointing but placed in remaining)

So the general consensus is Jack Kennedy will be on the first string hurdlers and Davy gets the first string chasers? You imagine they would each be on the second string Gigginstown horse for each discipline though?

Will be much harder to guess than the Ruby one but any early ideas?

Supreme -
Arkle - Petit Mouchoir
Ultima -
CH - Mick Jazz?
Mares -
NHC - X
Novice Chase -

Ballymore -
RSA - Presenting Percy
Coral -
CC -
XC -
FW -
Bumper -

JLT -
Pertemps -
Ryanair -
Stayers -
Plates -
Mares Novice -
KM - X

Triumph -
County -
AB - Dortmund Park / Cracking Smart
GC -
Foxhunters - X
MP - X
GA - Ordinary World?
 
Coral. William henry
Gold cup disko/ outlander.
 
Bless the wings Xc
Mitouchka fw
 
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Did we ever look at the difference between his Handicap Chase record and normal chase record at Cheltenham?

I don't mind doing that but it won't be tonight...
 
Kevloaf said:
Did we ever look at the difference between his Handicap Chase record and normal chase record at Cheltenham?

I don't mind doing that but it won't be tonight...
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure it was floating around his record in 2016 but can't remember or find where. I do have his record from the last festival though broken into types of races:

Hurdles : 862
Chases : 3242

Handicap Hurdles : 01
Handicap Chases : 33P4

Bumper : 0

So in 2017

Handicaps : 3301P4
Non Handicaps : 86232420
Any kind of Chase : 324233P4 <= phenomenal place rate.

Would be certain this is a peak and wouldn't be repeated but certainly worth checking a few years prior. Have always felt Davy is much better over a fence and this very small sample would go along with that
 
That is eyecatching stats over a fence.

He isn't exactly under rated but there is not much chance the bookies factor that kind of record in surely?

Is Mala Beach going to go for the Ultima?
 
Certainly is. Might look at 2016 now...it has me intrigued! ;)

Here's the horses and prices in those chases:

Arkle - Ordinary World - 25/1 - 3/9
Ultima - Noble Endavour - 15/2 - 3/23
Novice Chase - Two Taffs - 8/1 - 3/20
RSA Chase - Whisper - 9/2 - 2/12
Cross Country - Bless the Wings - 10/1 - 2/16
Champion Chase - Top Gamble - 20/1 - 4/10
Plate - Diamond King - 5/1F - PU/24
Grand Annual - Dandridge - 13/2 - 4/24

Fairly decent prices there and an each way price on all. The 4th being in the CC with 10 runners so that would have missed out on the place but 25/1, 15/2, 8/1, 9/2, 10/1 and 13/2 horses placing.

Fair to say with his link back up with Gigginstown and Elliott he'll have a ride in almost all races this year though? So be very hard to keep such a strike rate up, albeit he may be on better chances

Am I right in thinking soft ground is a must for Mala Beach? Likely to bypass the festival?
 
2016 record:

Hurdles : 06P2
Chases : 0U3

Handicap Hurdles : 11
Handicap Chases : 42

Bumper : 9

So in 2016

Handicaps : 4112
Non Handicaps : 06P20U39
Any kind of Chase : 0U342 <= 60% place rate

Here's the horses and prices in those chases:

Ultima - Morning Assembly - 10/1 - 4/23
Cross Country - Rivage D'Or - 25/1 - 11/16
JLT - Zabana - 8/1 - UR/9*
Gold Cup - Don Poli - 9/2 - 3/9
Grand Annual - Dandridge - 8/1 - 2/24

*who knows where Zabana would have finished but he got unseated at the start so unlucky and the horse then went on to win at Punchestown on it's next run
 
To further back up Jono's research - the below is from the Megasite - Trendspotting section:

DAVY RUSSELL
2017: 1-14 (7%) -£2
2016: 2-13 (15%) +£15
2015: 2-5 (40%) +£17
2014: 3-12 (25%) +£37
2013: 1-7 (14%) +£2

Overview: Like Ruby Walsh, it’s rare a Cheltenham Festival goes by without Davy Russell partnering a winner, as was the case 12 months ago when delivering on Presenting Percy in the Pertemps Final at 11/1.

That victory also demonstrated Russell’s cool head in the hurly-burly of a big-field handicaps here, where he struck for an impressive return of 8-44 (+£63), though another simple method for punters is to follow Russell on realistic chances at 20/1 or shorter, on whom he struck at 16-87 (+£99) – and with 18 others placed, the each-way record improves to 34-87 (+£114). Do also check when Russell rides one that arrived via Fairyhouse or Leopardstown last time, as they show a joint-record of 13-56 (+£92).

Also an interesting point on horses that had their prep at Fairyhouse or Leopardstown...
 
Are any of the horses that Jono mentions above - worth a 2nd crack at some of these handicaps?

(We have discussed in other threads the solid record of previously placed horses AND fancied horses not to win, only to win at bigger odds the next year).

Dandridge to go one better?????
 
It wouldn't be at all surprising if he got 3-4 winners this year. The average for top jockey over the last 8 years is 4.5 winners..

Ruby is fav at 1/2 in this market and it wouldn't be one that I'd normally get stuck into but Davy 12/1 could be a price. If 2 out of Petit Mouchoir, Mall Dini, Presenting Percy, Monalee win...there is surely a chance he could sneak another 2, possibly 3 if he gets a bit of luck. Which would mean 12/1 would be big in comparison to 1/2 for Ruby
 
Toffees said:
It wouldn't be at all surprising if he got 3-4 winners this year. The average for top jockey over the last 8 years is 4.5 winners..

Ruby is fav at 1/2 in this market and it wouldn't be one that I'd normally get stuck into but Davy 12/1 could be a price. If 2 out of Petit Mouchoir, Mall Dini, Presenting Percy, Monalee win...there is surely a chance he could sneak another 2, possibly 3 if he gets a bit of luck. Which would mean 12/1 would be big in comparison to 1/2 for Ruby
Click to expand...

It looks like Monalee and Presenting Percy will be facing each other so that takes away one of his rides with a big chance.
 
Toffees said:
It wouldn't be at all surprising if he got 3-4 winners this year. The average for top jockey over the last 8 years is 4.5 winners..

Ruby is fav at 1/2 in this market and it wouldn't be one that I'd normally get stuck into but Davy 12/1 could be a price. If 2 out of Petit Mouchoir, Mall Dini, Presenting Percy, Monalee win...there is surely a chance he could sneak another 2, possibly 3 if he gets a bit of luck. Which would mean 12/1 would be big in comparison to 1/2 for Ruby
Click to expand...

Where are the odds for that toffee?

What odds is Jack Kennedy? He has the rides on Apple's Jade and Samcro so I can see him being ahead of Ruby before the RSA starts... and Ruby I am not expecting to have a fantastic Wednesday?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
It looks like Monalee and Presenting Percy will be facing each other so that takes away one of his rides with a big chance.
Click to expand...

No confirmations yet, and you never know what will happen between here and March, Monalee could easily rock on to the JLT if Davy think PP has the beating of him.
 
Kevloaf said:
Where are the odds for that toffee?

What odds is Jack Kennedy? He has the rides on Apple's Jade and Samcro so I can see him being ahead of Ruby before the RSA starts... and Ruby I am not expecting to have a fantastic Wednesday?
Click to expand...

Only WilliamHill have odds at the moment:

Ruby 1/2
Geraghty 5/1
Jack 7/1
Davy 12/1
D Jacob 16/1
Townend 20/1
Nico 25/1
 
Toffees said:
No confirmations yet, and you never know what will happen between here and March, Monalee could easily rock on to the JLT if Davy think PP has the beating of him.
Click to expand...

Absolutely, but as things stand, all the signs point to PP and Monalee going head to head in the RSA.
 
Toffees said:
Only WilliamHill have odds at the moment:

Ruby 1/2
Geraghty 5/1
Jack 7/1
Davy 12/1
D Jacob 16/1
Townend 20/1
Nico 25/1
Click to expand...

That stands out to me... I'm taking it that Apple's Jade and Samcro are bankers.... but he will have a ride in every handicap he can, and in every chase for Gigginstown? ... he proved he can win on an "outsider" in Labaik....

I expect at least 2
I would be confident of 3
Hopeful of 4... which would give him a good chance?



Then again..... Ruby is 1/2 and has won it 9 out of the last 10 years... with no sign of weakness in his mounts.

Maybe 1/2 is buying money :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
That stands out to me... I'm taking it that Apple's Jade and Samcro are bankers.... but he will have a ride in every handicap he can, and in every chase for Gigginstown? ... he proved he can win on an "outsider" in Labaik....

I expect at least 2
I would be confident of 3
Hopeful of 4... which would give him a good chance?



Then again..... Ruby is 1/2 and has won it 9 out of the last 10 years... with no sign of weakness in his mounts.

Maybe 1/2 is buying money :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Haha maybe so but they were years that Willie was dominating. Id lay 1/2 if I had the chance anyway
 
I like Jack at 7/1 there. Ruby doesn't have the 'certainties' he has had in previous years
 
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