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Daily movers

That wasn't so good, ran out of steam but still better than some priced much shorter, a better than others run doesn't provide much profit though, needs to be better than all.
 
Interresting reading each day.

Keep it up :encouragement:

Do you have any opinion on whether there is a difference between the money coming from a horse on the flat compared to over jumps?
 
Kevloaf said:
Interresting reading each day.

Keep it up :encouragement:

Do you have any opinion on whether there is a difference between the money coming from a horse on the flat compared to over jumps?
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Hi Kev
The jumps money looks a bit more considered to me, by that I mean the smaller stables and lesser known owners appear to have more targeted plots, so you may have one big mover compared to 2 or 3 in the equivalent type flat races. I suppose the small prize money on offer means a plot horse is more attractive, and warm up runs easier to hide
 
Zamparelli, 5.15 at Wetherby has already halved in price to 3/1, what makes this more interesting is the Skelton boys have a couple of very fancied runners earlier on the card, but this one must look like value to them
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Big priced one tomoz, Desilvano Warwick 3.50, 40>25>16, worth keeping an eye on.
Also Literale ci Winc 3.05, more than halved in price, J P McManus horse
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Literale Ci was interesting with over £165K bet on her in the last few minutes on BF Ex - approximately £360K of the total £680K traded on that race making the BSP 2.86 - so whatever we lost, someone lost a whole lot more.
Fascinating stuff MrMc
 
Discko des plages, Towc 5.25, R Hobson/James Bowen, steady money 12>9>8>7, concerted effort, often seems like connection money gets on early eve, then flattens out, can then continue the following day before drifting towards the off. Will watch the pattern, be interested to know if the early backers are creating lay opportunities, or just backing to win
 
Just for future ref, G Elliot has The Game changer running in the 9.0 tonight at Dundalk, and it's really been smashed up
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
be interested to know if the early backers are creating lay opportunities, or just backing to win
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This is your biggest danger Mr M.
There are professional teams doing just that, setting off rumours and manipulating machines on the exchanges that are pre-programmed to follow trends/activity, if you had the inclination to monitor the price of every horse every day there will be scores of horses backed from 16/1 into 6/1, then back out to 10/1 who run like pigs, but the only ones who get hurt are the backers....
 
Istabraq said:
This is your biggest danger Mr M.
There are professional teams doing just that, setting off rumours and manipulating machines on the exchanges that are pre-programmed to follow trends/activity, if you had the inclination to monitor the price of every horse every day there will be scores of horses backed from 16/1 into 6/1, then back out to 10/1 who run like pigs, but the only ones who get hurt are the backers....
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It is a problem isty that's true, the ones I'm monitoring are the ones that get steady support for a couple of hours after the first evening show, those moving in several stages. There are plenty that open at a price and drop 5 or 10 points within an hour, that suggests alignment to me, but the gradual decrease is what I find interesting. Might be a dead end in which case I stick to my normal methods, this is just a possible way of finding something at a bigger price
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
the ones I'm monitoring are the ones that get steady support for a couple of hours after the first evening show
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Yes, but you will know that the time a 'rick' is made is when the odds compilers open up, and when some are wildly wrong they'll quickly correct their prices.
Also, bookies get scared, so a 25/1 shot receiving support at 5pm the evening before is more likely to get cut to 12/1 than 20/1 to prevent big liabilities piling up, so 25/1 into 12/1 could be the result of a small number of insignificant bets....
 
Off topic but

Robbie Power is riding for Mullins/Ricci tomorrow and Mullins has no other runner in the race. Paul Townend had a ride for Mullins earlier on the card?

Anything to read in to that?

Valseur Lido should hammer Koshari in my opinion regardless p
 
Istabraq said:
Yes, but you will know that the time a 'rick' is made is when the odds compilers open up, and when some are wildly wrong they'll quickly correct their prices.
Also, bookies get scared, so a 25/1 shot receiving support at 5pm the evening before is more likely to get cut to 12/1 than 20/1 to prevent big liabilities piling up, so 25/1 into 12/1 could be the result of a small number of insignificant bets....
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I take your point and see the regular movements of that type. I have been wondering if there is a way to sort the wheat from the chaff, which is why I look for the staged decline, take this Discko des Plages, now down to 100/30, that's been a steady drop and when I first posted it was available at a decent ew price, if you waited till this morning you really only have the win option. Connections want to get their money down so some of the moves must be genuine, if we can work out 30% of those we could make a profit at the prices, and if there are days when 2, or more, develope the profit could be substantial for a very small outlay
 
Kevloaf said:
Off topic but

Robbie Power is riding for Mullins/Ricci tomorrow and Mullins has no other runner in the race. Paul Townend had a ride for Mullins earlier on the card?

Anything to read in to that?

Valseur Lido should hammer Koshari in my opinion regardless p
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That does seem odd Kev, don't really see a reason why PT wouldn't be riding, maybe he has somewhere he needs to be, strange though
 
There’s merit in your strategy Mr M and believe me, if I could split the genuine gambles from the back/lay traders I’d be a rich man, but the exchanges created a brand new industry and there are, if course, those who use this opportunity to maximise their returns, be that by legal/illegal moral/immoral means.
You no longer need to back winners to make money gambling....
 
Watching the Desilvano race again I think the jockey, Mitch Bastyan, had him on the wide outside nearly all the way round, maybe inexperience but he was repeatedly pushing along to maintain a position thereby using up a lot of the horses energy to do so, what's the old saying, "you can give away weight but you can't give away ground" I think it may be worth keeping an eye on this horse to see if it gets backed again, would have been much closer I think with a more considered ride, but perhaps not such a generous price nto
 
Istabraq said:
There’s merit in your strategy Mr M and believe me, if I could split the genuine gambles from the back/lay traders I’d be a rich man, but the exchanges created a brand new industry and there are, if course, those who use this opportunity to maximise their returns, be that by legal/illegal moral/immoral means.
You no longer need to back winners to make money gambling....
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You're a cynical man isty, very much like myself, but you never know, if the folk on this forum pool their extensive knowledge maybe we can differentiate. Perhaps certain stables/owners/jockey combos will materialise as ones to follow, it used to be a regular feature seeing gambles landed by the likes of Barney Curley and Tony Martin, there will be others that ride under the radar. F O'Brien and Victor Dartnall bang in a few, perhaps others will become more obvious
 
Mr M - is Gofast du Sauniere on your radar ?
Towc 5.25.
What’s the thinking here, 50/1 into 16s....
 
Istabraq said:
Mr M - is Gofast du Sauniere on your radar ?
Towc 5.25.
What’s the thinking here, 50/1 into 16s....
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No movement on that one yesterday evening, already got DDP in from 12/1>11/4 in the same race, so would have to say that's the one that fulfills the evg movement criteria with a carryover into the next day, muddys the water somewhat though:mad:
 
Kevloaf said:
Off topic but

Robbie Power is riding for Mullins/Ricci tomorrow and Mullins has no other runner in the race. Paul Townend had a ride for Mullins earlier on the card?

Anything to read in to that?

Valseur Lido should hammer Koshari in my opinion regardless p
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Fine theatre heavily backed too, 10>7/2
 
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