From my Yankee thread
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Coral Cup
Attracts the intermediate trip specialists, and a race that favours lightly raced, class acts towards the top of the weights on a strong upward curve, but not a first season novice (from which there has never been a winner). Recent years has been a relatively modest pace giving an advantage to speedier types. Want to spot a potential graded horse in the making, not a plot job. Over the last five years the following marks have got a run (recent to old): 135, 136, 139, 138, 135
- Gordon Elliot (+20pts)
- Horses rated 148+ (+43pts)
- French-bred (+45.5pts)
- Last time out winners (+24.5pts)
The Coral Cup is the 5th most predictable handicap so I think we've got a good chance of finding the winner here. It favours the top end of the market (the top 8 taking 8 of last 10 renewals) and we are much less likely to be blind-sided by a plot job.
Cracking Smart 25/1 this horse has some very smart back class, running Next Destination to a length last season in the Lawlors, but was unfortunately side-lined for the rest of the season with injury. The fact he missed the spring festivals means he is going somewhat under the radar. The slight concern in my head was he wouldn't handle the better ground, but on his most recent run he travelled very pleasingly and was right upside Tiger Roll before being smashed into at the 3rd last. Then being on the back foot he wasn't pushed too hard to claim 3rd 2l behind Off You Go who is now 8/1 2nd fav for the Coral Cup. Let's see what the weights are tomorrow, but I imagine Cracking Smart doesn't have much to find at all and anticipate some improvement as Elliot brings him to the boil.
Early Doors 25/1 with a likely much lower weight, Early Doors is of interest. He's been tried up in graded company this season and been absolutely smashed up by Apples Jade over 2m4f and 3m. Behind him the last day were some decent graded types in Bapaume, Jezki and Shaneshill, but with a 26L loss the handicapper can't do much damage. Brings festival form to the table having come 3rd in last years Martin Pipe upsides Discorama and Sire Du Berlais. He looks overpriced.
I'm also throwing in Whiskey Sour 20/1 who was one of the gambles of last years County but looked to get caught out with inexperience and the ground going against him. The stable obviously expected a massive race. WS had qualified with the minimum of three runs for a handicap mark, and novices have a terrible record in the County where everything happens a bit quickly. Despite this ran very well to finish 3rd, even more so considering he came from off the pace to do so. Since had a fair campaign on the flat, and the likely better ground to suit, will have a great chance.