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Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase 2018

Cashew King said:
Henderson confirms Rather Be (Jerry McGrath) & Devine Spear (Nico) for this.
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Interesting. I was hoping the other way around. I really like NdB. In close finishes (under a length, I think), I'm sure I read he has the best win % of any jockey.
 
Attacked this today with a fresh mind....

Kalondra 14/1 - I was at cheltenham when he won and was impressed with the way this travelled how he was produced toward the end of the race, it's exactly what you want to see from a horse - plus he did that at cheltenham.
He travelled well in the Coral cup, but the winners came from the front which suggests it ended up being a bit of a sprint finish... gave himself too much to do, especially with the ground riding so good!
Horse wants a gallop, and decent ground - he's defeat against Modus is nothing to be ashamed about, Modus was rated higher than him over hurdles and is currently 8/1 for the JLT. I'm more than happy to scratch off the Grade 1 run at Sandown, he came up against two really good horses and the ground wouldnt be to his suiting.

The other one I like and will take a risk bet on now at 30's (exchanges), is Peregine Run. Another one who prefers better ground and appears to have been kept off the track in search of this. Not sure whether Tuesday's going will be good enough for him, but he did win at Cheltenham, beating Wholestone, on ground that was describe as Good... but that was in November, so can't see why conditions wouldnt be similar in just under two weeks time (cold to mild, ground consider Good/Good to Soft but riding slightly on the dead side). I'll take my chances with this one

Done!
 
Not sure Peregrine Run is an intended runner - pretty much everyone on this site was on him in the coral cup last year - Bayoffreedom’s horse is in the same stable - sure he suggested it won’t be running- but things might have changed!
 
opatcho said:
Attacked this today with a fresh mind....

Kalondra 14/1 - I was at cheltenham when he won and was impressed with the way this travelled how he was produced toward the end of the race, it's exactly what you want to see from a horse - plus he did that at cheltenham.
He travelled well in the Coral cup, but the winners came from the front which suggests it ended up being a bit of a sprint finish... gave himself too much to do, especially with the ground riding so good!
Horse wants a gallop, and decent ground - he's defeat against Modus is nothing to be ashamed about, Modus was rated higher than him over hurdles and is currently 8/1 for the JLT. I'm more than happy to scratch off the Grade 1 run at Sandown, he came up against two really good horses and the ground wouldnt be to his
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I’d assume Fehily would ride & his update this week on his chances in handicaps would put me off a bit:

“The handicaps were released this week and to be honest they were all so tight. Cheltenham is a tough place and the races are hard to work out especially as a lot of them won’t run. I don’t think I have a stand-out chance in any of the handicaps, so far anyway. I was a lot more interested in the novices to be honest, and graded races.”
 
Cashew King said:
I’d assume Fehily would ride & his update this week on his chances in handicaps would put me off a bit:

“The handicaps were released this week and to be honest they were all so tight. Cheltenham is a tough place and the races are hard to work out especially as a lot of them won’t run. I don’t think I have a stand-out chance in any of the handicaps, so far anyway. I was a lot more interested in the novices to be honest, and graded races.”
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The ground is looking more like an issue but have you heard any jock say they are going to win a handicap? Sometimes a positive if they don't say anything.
 
Cashew King said:
Henderson confirms Rather Be (Jerry McGrath) & Devine Spear (Nico) for this.
Click to expand...

TCH29 said:
Interesting. I was hoping the other way around. I really like NdB. In close finishes (under a length, I think), I'm sure I read he has the best win % of any jockey.
Click to expand...

I suppose you can't really read too much in to which of the two they prefer based on that...as Jerry has been on Rather Be most of the time and Nico on Divine Spear... so to switch them would have been odd (or a massive plus for Rather Be).... but I wouldn't be downhearted if I was on either.

Someone did highlight that HEnderson's assistant trainer was keener on Divine Spear though... I think it was on the StarSports youtube preview?
 
opatcho said:
No one concerned about rather be’s jumping?!
Jumped right LTO
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Possible issue, but I'm pretty sure a lot jump right at Fakenham as a lot of the camber goes that way. Never been though so only what I've seen on Telly
 
C&D festival form has been huge in this race in recent years with Tully East & Ballyalton have won after running 4th in the Martin Pipe & 2nd in the Neptune. In addition to this Thomas Crapper & Attaglance both finished 2nd after previously finishing 2nd & 1st in the Martin Pipe.

There are a few horses who have decent festival form over C&D mainly Ibis Du Rheu, Martin Pipe winner but PN confirmed he goes for Ultima. Then you also have Brelade, Keeper Hill (6th & 7th Neptune) and Born Survivor (6th Martin Pipe).

I really like Born Survivor, after claims he was top weight in the Martin Pipe last year and finished 6th beat 6L by Champagne Classic who was in receipt of 5lb and subsequently, won a grade 1 at Punchestown. Bridget Andrew gave him in my opinion a weak ride. Hacked up on his maiden chase win smashing some decent sorts. 2 runs since have been on heavy ground, horse has never looked good on heavy ground. 25/1 NRNB B365.
 
quevega said:
Possible issue, but I'm pretty sure a lot jump right at Fakenham as a lot of the camber goes that way. Never been though so only what I've seen on Telly
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That’s my issue with this horse.... Fakenham! Who runs here as a prep for the festival
Trainer is either

1) protecting him by running him at small tracks
2) racing him at he ‘right’ level

You wouldn’t see Might Bite at Feckenham would ya
 
opatcho said:
That’s my issue with this horse.... Fakenham! Who runs here as a prep for the festival
Trainer is either

1) protecting him by running him at small tracks
2) racing him at he ‘right’ level

You wouldn’t see Might Bite at Feckenham would ya
Click to expand...

Obviously number 1. He went there on 143 and could not afford a raise.
 
opatcho said:
That’s my issue with this horse.... Fakenham! Who runs here as a prep for the festival
Trainer is either

1) protecting him by running him at small tracks
2) racing him at he ‘right’ level

You wouldn’t see Might Bite at Feckenham would ya
Click to expand...

you're on the wrong track i reckon...
100% protecting his mark.
So was divine spear getting ridden easily at mussleborough, interesting Nico riding this one as well.
Might Bite ran at Fos Las.
 
For the Peregrine Run fans...

Peter Fahey is anxiously waiting for the weather to dry up so he can make plans for Cheltenham entry Peregrine Run.

Something of a forgotten horse this season, almost 200 days will have elapsed since his last run at Killarney in August.

As he needs good ground it has always been the plan to head straight to Cheltenham, but Fahey is not 100 per cent the ground will dry up in time for the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase contender.

"Everything seems fine with him but we're just waiting on the ground," said F ahey.

"He has to have good ground so we'll make a decision on whether he travels much nearer the time.

"He's in brilliant form and working well but it's just a pity we're going to be sitting and waiting to see what the ground is like and it will be down to that whether he runs or not.

"With the way the weather is at the minute you just don't know, we've got our fingers crossed. On nice ground he'd definitely take his chance.

"He'll run in the handicap. He wouldn't be giving away lots of weight despite being top weight.

"He 's running off his Irish mark which I'm happy about and I'd be very happy to take him if the ground is good.

"Last year in the Coral Cup we rode him a bit too close to the pace so we'll change things a bit but he still wasn't beaten far."
 
Gordon elliot.
Tycoon Prince goes here.
 
Having gone through the form is this closely, can anyone explain the following?
- Why does Hendo and his yard prefer Divine Spear to Rather Be? Following form lines the latter appears to be far more "well in".
- How can anyone fancy MWTT over Kalobdra based on form against each other and at Cheltenham?
- Looking at form (and price), why is De Plotting She'd fancied over Barney Dean?
- Is Any Second not potentially open to fourth improvement than both of them?

I think the winner will come from the above, and must say my gut feeling is for Rather Be, especially at the prices. I just can't work out whether it's a ruse by Hendo's camp re Divine Spear.
 
TCH29 said:
Having gone through the form is this closely, can anyone explain the following?
- Why does Hendo and his yard prefer Divine Spear to Rather Be? Following form lines the latter appears to be far more "well in".
- How can anyone fancy MWTT over Kalobdra based on form against each other and at Cheltenham?
- Looking at form (and price), why is De Plotting She'd fancied over Barney Dean?
- Is Any Second not potentially open to fourth improvement than both of them?

I think the winner will come from the above, and must say my gut feeling is for Rather Be, especially at the prices. I just can't work out whether it's a ruse by Hendo's camp re Divine Spear.
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Hend did say if he had a charity bet for cheltenham he would but £50 on each Rather Be and Divine Spear, so not much between them I guess, Nico did slightly prefer Divine Spear, but I am like you and sticking with Rather Be...
 
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