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Cheltenham weather forecast

Mistycat1970 said:
You seem to be missing the point, it's not good ground dependant is it?? How do you know it prefers better ground?
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I'm not missing the point MC. Samcro in not ground dependent but he is a better horse on a better surface imo. If the ground was typical festival ground i think he'd be almost impossible to beat, on really soft ground I'm not anywhere near as confident.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'm not missing the point MC. Samcro in not ground dependent but he is a better horse on a better surface imo. If the ground was typical festival ground i think he'd be almost impossible to beat, on really soft ground I'm not anywhere near as confident.
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Do u mind if I ask why?. For me, he is a certainty, hoping to see a romp.
 
ziggym said:
Do u mind if I ask why?. For me, he is a certainty, hoping to see a romp.
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Very soft ground can throw up strange results and extreme going would worry me Ziggy. I'm not saying he won't win (I think he will), I just think it is a doubt.
 
The going at Cheltenham remains soft, heavy in places with a GoingStick reading of 5.7 (improved from 5.5). Up to 6mm of rain forecast through to Monday
 
If it's only light rain during the next two days & the temperature above 10 degrees I can see the Going Stick between 6.1 & 6.3 and that would be nice ground for a lot of horses. Horses that need Good ground or firmer I would be cashing out.


I am ok with:

Tues Soft

Wed Soft to Good to Soft in places

Thurs Soft to Good to Soft but getting better

Friday Good to Soft
 
Now showing up to 20mm of rain today and tomorrow, if that's correct I wouldn't be surprised to see a precautionary inspection called!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'm not missing the point MC. Samcro in not ground dependent but he is a better horse on a better surface imo. If the ground was typical festival ground i think he'd be almost impossible to beat, on really soft ground I'm not anywhere near as confident.
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All horses run faster on better ground, that's a fact.
But slower ground can blunt speed and brings stamina into play.
Some have actions more suited to different ground types, but most still run on any ground.
skippy action types like cloudy dream (might be a bad example as he may have other issues, but it's the skippiest action i can think of) would improve considerably on better ground as he can't quicken on slower ground.
It's rare for horses to quicken on a slower surface but the stamina laden types with a high knee action can gallop through it relentlessly.

I thought samcro would have been absolutely certain to win the supreme, but if it's really soft on the wednesday then he might be up against a real stayer. although i still think he's almost certain to win
 
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I'd love to know how tempted Mr Elliot is to switching samcro to the supreme, the Ballymore looks a far easier race though, will find out at 10 am
 
He said last night 99.9% Ballymore. can not see nothing changing by 10am, I would think most trainers have already emailed over their entries
 
Tues showing sunny spells and wednesday as a breezy day so hopefully that dries out the track a little for the last 2 days. Also the switch to the new course will bring about some fresh, unraced on ground
 
Mistycat1970 said:
Racing post weather, are you still betting you're house it won't be heavy?
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Don't think I would bet my house on anything, I like a punt but I like my wife & kids more..

Where did you get another 20mm of rain from for today & tomorrow?

On Friday the going at Cheltenham was described as good to soft, soft in places, and although rain was forecast, it arrived in greater quantity than predicted. While three of the four days are set to be dry, up to 9mm of rain is forecast for Wednesday.

We had over half an inch of rain overnight, 14 millimetres in total," said clerk of the course Simon Claisse.

"We were expecting plenty of rain, but not quite so much and we have had another 2mm today so we have had 16mm in the last 24 hours.

"The outlook remains the same with showers tomorrow and Monday amounting to 5-6mm. It is set to be dry Tuesday but wet Wednesday. I don't think the going will change much.
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Sounds a bit like a Jackanory...
 
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The course posted this on the BHA site this morning:

Soft, heavy in places.
(GoingStick: 5.7 on Sunday at 07:00)
Dry overnight. Rain developing Sunday afternoon and through
Monday (up to 10mm). Tuesday and Wednesday mostly dry,
overnight rain in to Thursday (up to 9mm), then a showery
outlook through to Friday, temps 11/12C.
 
The forecast I've been using is predicting another 14mm before racing. Heavy ground a possibility now.
 
I could see it heavy all over if we do get around 10mm but I will be amazed if the course gets a precautionary inspection, it would need to turn into a bog..
 
Sirbetalot said:
I could see it heavy all over if we do get around 10mm but I will be amazed if the course gets a precautionary inspection, it would need to turn into a bog..
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Precautionary inspection? Surely not.
 
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