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Cheltenham Specials

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Sir Eric

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I think it would be a good idea to discuss and keep the specials markets to one thread. Has anyone seen anything worth looking at? JP top owner @ 4/5?
 
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JP looks to have a very strong hand especially with the buys this week, what are the odds of giggingstown ?
 
Betfairs 2/5 about JP being top owner is much more like the correct price imho
 
The one market special that I’ve been mulling over is the breakdown of winners/number of Irish winners. There are no big prices or boosts really on offer at present but they are cropping up in the Skybet & WH Cheltenham specials. I think this year it will GB 12 - 16 Ireland or maybe 13-15.
I think GB will win SNH, AK, Ultima, CB, RSA, QMCC, JLT, SH, BP, KM, GC & GA with possiblilty of the AB.
I’ve got money on Ireland to have between 14-16 winners (2/1) and also GB to have 12+ winners at Evens.

Any predictions on final winners tally?
 
PP - Ruby Walsh Gold Cup ride

1/3 Bellshill
5/2 Al Boum Photo
8/1 Kemboy
 
Paul Nicholls to have 3+ winners at 9/2 with Sky Bet Trainers Specials is also a good value bet. I think that is very possible
 
The King Pimm said:
JP McManus to own 6+ winners is currently 7/2 with Skybet.
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I know he has OK Corral, Champ, Buveur D'Air, Le Richebourg and DDS as clear market favs but 7/2 is terrible, they won't all win cause they never do. JP will probably bag 1 of the handicaps, but 7/2 is terrible for 6+ winners. £90 back off £20. £10 EW on the 5 horses listed here returns £140 if they all place, and 12 grand if they all win. The definition of a no brainer
 
We have to remain positive because it’s going to be a financial hurricane for most of us if the bookies stick to their rules :sorrow:
 
charlie said:
I know he has OK Corral, Champ, Buveur D'Air, Le Richebourg and DDS as clear market favs but 7/2 is terrible, they won't all win cause they never do. JP will probably bag 1 of the handicaps, but 7/2 is terrible for 6+ winners. £90 back off £20. £10 EW on the 5 horses listed here returns £140 if they all place, and 12 grand if they all win. The definition of a no brainer
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Isolating a few favs is not the point of the bet. You will have 60 plus horses running for him over 28 races including the favoured ones you pinpoint, but also a whole load more with good chances -Sir Erec, Fakir D'Oudairies, Blue Sari, Andy D, Stand Up and Fight, Birchdale, Sire De Berlais, Dickie Diver, Glenloe, Jerrysback, Off You Go, Epatante, Josies Orders, Gardens Of Babylon to name just a few with at least a chance. And it's any six out of his multitude of entries. Fair chance.
 
delsie777 said:
Isolating a few favs is not the point of the bet. You will have 60 plus horses running for him over 28 races including the favoured ones you pinpoint, but also a whole load more with good chances -Sir Erec, Fakir D'Oudairies, Blue Sari, Andy D, Stand Up and Fight, Birchdale, Sire De Berlais, Dickie Diver, Glenloe, Jerrysback, Off You Go, Epatante, Josies Orders, Gardens Of Babylon to name just a few with at least a chance. And it's any six out of his multitude of entries. Fair chance.
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I agree, this is the strongest JP McManus team for as long as I can remember, I think he will get at least 6 winners, 8-9 wouldn’t be a surprise.
 
delsie777 said:
Isolating a few favs is not the point of the bet. You will have 60 plus horses running for him over 28 races including the favoured ones you pinpoint, but also a whole load more with good chances -Sir Erec, Fakir D'Oudairies, Blue Sari, Andy D, Stand Up and Fight, Birchdale, Sire De Berlais, Dickie Diver, Glenloe, Jerrysback, Off You Go, Epatante, Josies Orders, Gardens Of Babylon to name just a few with at least a chance. And it's any six out of his multitude of entries. Fair chance.
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Thing is you look at Charlie’s JP handicap analysis you’d say JP will do well to have 1 handicap winner which would mean he’d need to win 5 listed races. He’s obviously got a good few live chances but i’d want at least twice the price before thinking of getting involved
 
JP’s spending spree may not have finished either, who knows what other horses he’s purchased come March 12th, he’s a man on a mission this year, I think he wants to blow Gigginstown out the water.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Thing is you look at Charlie’s JP handicap analysis you’d say JP will do well to have 1 handicap winner which would mean he’d need to win 5 listed races. He’s obviously got a good few live chances but i’d want at least twice the price before thinking of getting involved
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My thoughts exactly
 
delsie777 said:
Isolating a few favs is not the point of the bet. You will have 60 plus horses running for him over 28 races including the favoured ones you pinpoint, but also a whole load more with good chances -Sir Erec, Fakir D'Oudairies, Blue Sari, Andy D, Stand Up and Fight, Birchdale, Sire De Berlais, Dickie Diver, Glenloe, Jerrysback, Off You Go, Epatante, Josies Orders, Gardens Of Babylon to name just a few with at least a chance. And it's any six out of his multitude of entries. Fair chance.
Click to expand...

Setting aside the handicaps, JP has the market leader in 8/18 of the remaining races at the Festival. Naming 5 of the very strong ones are not isolated because to hit 6+ winners, based on his performance in handicaps over the last decade (see other thread), JP will need some of those to win. I would be far more confident in being able to pick 6 of his runners to place 1-4 with a £10 EW bet, than I would be sticking £20 on JP to have 6+ winners at 7/2. I'd also make more money in doing it.
 
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