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Cheltenham November Meeting

Anyone else struggling with the Paddy Power Gold Cup? Jesus what a head scratcher. Heart says Zanza, head says Zanza, when I cut my finger I bleed Zanza. Don't think he jumps well enough though. It's tough. The ground went against Al Dancer last year and his form figures returning from a break and running fresh are ludicrous, pretty much all 1's. He interests me but is well found in the market. I quite like Simply The Betts @ 16/1 EW. He went off 7/1 last year and fluffed his lines but I think Bryony will suit him and his chase record prior to last year's blip was 11211, inc two wins at Cheltenham and at the festival. Top weight will be tough but a change of stable could have sparked a revival and it was a mistake at the water that took him out last year. He was running really well to that point and finished 7th when it looked like he was going to fall out the telly. I think 16/1 EW with 6 places is very fair.
 
charlie said:
Anyone else struggling with the Paddy Power Gold Cup? Jesus what a head scratcher. Heart says Zanza, head says Zanza, when I cut my finger I bleed Zanza. Don't think he jumps well enough though. It's tough. The ground went against Al Dancer last year and his form figures returning from a break and running fresh are ludicrous, pretty much all 1's. He interests me but is well found in the market. I quite like Simply The Betts @ 16/1 EW. He went off 7/1 last year and fluffed his lines but I think Bryony will suit him and his chase record prior to last year's blip was 11211, inc two wins at Cheltenham and at the festival. Top weight will be tough but a change of stable could have sparked a revival and it was a mistake at the water that took him out last year. He was running really well to that point and finished 7th when it looked like he was going to fall out the telly. I think 16/1 EW with 6 places is very fair.
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your not the only one, having a few beers and hope to pick the winner out tonight

Zanza has to jump better and that’s the worry. Over quick ground, I’m concern we may see another F next to his name

For me, I’m not backing anything which hasn’t had a run this season. Happy to stick to that rule, if I’m wrong I’m wrong but trend for those having a run is more than decent
 
charlie Thank you for the invaluable insight today. I was on banjo anyway but that knowledge this morning was useful. I also had something on BOTL knowing nothing about him prior to you saying how well he schooled. Nice little pot to go at tomorrow.

Re the gold cup, I’m searching for the value bet, but can’t get away from Protektorat. The class horse of the field and at 6/1, I think that’s very fair. Won’t mind the good going either, which is also useful what with him being top weight.
 
charlie said:
Anyone else struggling with the Paddy Power Gold Cup? Jesus what a head scratcher. Heart says Zanza, head says Zanza, when I cut my finger I bleed Zanza. Don't think he jumps well enough though. It's tough. The ground went against Al Dancer last year and his form figures returning from a break and running fresh are ludicrous, pretty much all 1's. He interests me but is well found in the market. I quite like Simply The Betts @ 16/1 EW. He went off 7/1 last year and fluffed his lines but I think Bryony will suit him and his chase record prior to last year's blip was 11211, inc two wins at Cheltenham and at the festival. Top weight will be tough but a change of stable could have sparked a revival and it was a mistake at the water that took him out last year. He was running really well to that point and finished 7th when it looked like he was going to fall out the telly. I think 16/1 EW with 6 places is very fair.
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Midnight Shadow is the second in a November Handicap double after your BOTL tip for me. Can't help but think he's miles ahead of his mark based on the run behind Chatham Street Lad last year and can't have that he was fully wound up at Aintree last time. Trainer knows how to have a winner at Cheltenham as well (e.g. Vintage Clouds)
 
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Exar Essay said:
charlie Thank you for the invaluable insight today. I was on banjo anyway but that knowledge this morning was useful. I also had something on BOTL knowing nothing about him prior to you saying how well he schooled. Nice little pot to go at tomorrow.

Re the gold cup, I’m searching for the value bet, but can’t get away from Protektorat. The class horse of the field and at 6/1, I think that’s very fair. Won’t mind the good going either, which is also useful what with him being top weight.
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No worries pal, glad you benefitted. Simply The Betts is also the class horse in the field, rated 154 and I think he's run to the highest RPR at Cheltenham (162). At nearly 3 times the price I'd back him over Protektorat, and his form figures off a break read 13116. He's 2/4 at Cheltenham and I think Bryony will get along with him. If that blip from last year weren't next to his name I think he'd be 7's like he was last year, but he's 16's due to that blip (which was a mistake that knocked him) and an absence. He's a solid place prospect IMO.
 
Odin said:
Midnight Shadow is the second in a November Handicap double after your BOTL tip for me. Can't help but think he's miles ahead of his mark based on the run behind Chatham Street Lad last year and can't have that he was fully wound up at Aintree last time. Trainer knows how to have a winner at Cheltenham as well (e.g. Vintage Clouds)
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Hope that comes off for you!
 
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Fancy Good time Jonny tomorrow, looks to be on an upward curve and seems battle hardened against some decent horses back home. Think he could go off quite short.
 
Politologue looks a knocking bet on Sunday in the schloer

His record fresh the last 5 seasons is 12111 including last years tingle creek

and the 2 was in this race just failing to give weight to a bang in form defi du seiul who then bolted up in the tingle creek

9/2 is too big
 
Greatwood
Jesse Evans 9/1

Ran a belter in the Galway hurdle, will love the ground

All set for a big run
 
Fancy Capilano Bridge in the 3.25 today

Good claimer takes some weight off and hes ran very well the last few times in some proper good quality irish handicap hurdles. The ground will be no worry and 2m5f round here will be perfect imo. He's previously finished ahead of the likes of Capodanno and Crosshill so has a little bit of class about him.

A little fancy for Galahad Quest in the PP, he was very much an eye catcher LTO under what was a very generous ride imo weaving in and out of runners on the bridle down the Wetherby home straight before the one in front had pinged the last 2 and gone. Had in my mind they were eyeing up a decent race after that run and here he is so worth a few quid EW with plenty of places available.
 
charlie said:
No worries pal, glad you benefitted. Simply The Betts is also the class horse in the field, rated 154 and I think he's run to the highest RPR at Cheltenham (162). At nearly 3 times the price I'd back him over Protektorat, and his form figures off a break read 13116. He's 2/4 at Cheltenham and I think Bryony will get along with him. If that blip from last year weren't next to his name I think he'd be 7's like he was last year, but he's 16's due to that blip (which was a mistake that knocked him) and an absence. He's a solid place prospect IMO.
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Fair point re Simply the Betts. A lot of horses here performed well at trials day ‘20 if memory serves. Change of yard a benefit or negative in your view? Change of jockey too as Gavin Sheehan always rides.

I quite like Paints the Dream. Always seems to outperform his odds. Off a big weight now but form is good and performs on anything between soft and good.
 
4 for me today caramelised (ran far to keen last time out and expect form to reversed with addosh if settling), Galahad Quest ( with farinet coming out due to the ground, I'll side with the horse finishing ahead of him last season), Sporting John (could turn into a decent stayer back over hurdles and looks well in based on some of his form over fences) and good time jonny (pinged its hurdles last time out winning quite snug, really impressed with the jumping, and well...its Irish so probably well in)
 
In the early races:
The 12,30 juvenile - a lot of winners and horses with decent form, No Irish!
Magistrato;s last win is hard to assess but he was put in his place in France by Porticello. Lines of form through that run point to Caramelised and Mister Allegro as better value. I liked how MA jumped last time and assuming Caramelised is fit now he seems well in:
Selections: Caramelised/Mister Allegro

The 1.05 amateur riders' chase. There were no Irish challengers in this race last year but 3 this year and I expect an Irish win. The two I like are Mindsmadeup and Opposites Attract. OA ran in the incredible Irish point which featured Monkfish, Fury Road and Fiddlerontheroof - did they realise what they were watching that day! He has some classy racecourse form
It's the kind of race where an upset is possible and I think Bermeo or Factofthematter may cause a surprise
Selections: Opposites Attract/Mindsmadeup
Outsiders: Bermeo/Factofthematter

1.40 Third Time Lucki was very impressive over these fences LTO but with only one chase run his odds are too short for me.
Selection for value: Captain Tom Cat - not a betting race
 
Paddy Power - Spiritofthegames 22/1 EW
Greatwood - Ballyandy 20/1 EW

Bit of simplistic reasoning here but both were 2nd last year in the same races off similar weights. Better prices available but taken the 7pl on offer with Sky.
 
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