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Cheltenham November Meeting Antepost discussion

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samcow

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Made a thread for this weeks cheltenham meeting as there's a lot of good races coming up saturday.

In the betvictor gold cup I like us and them at 11-1 as I'm believe they've prepped with this race in mind and he does well on soft ground
 
I spent some time on this last night and whatever angle I took I kept coming back to Siruh du Lac.
11/2 is a terrible price and I have a shocking record in the race so I won’t be considering parting with any cash until Saturday when I hope there’s better value and more places....
 
Plowed into Count Meribel 14/1 for the BetVictor Gold Cup
 
Spiritofthegames 7lb better off with SDL big swing for me.
 
Istabraq said:
I spent some time on this last night and whatever angle I took I kept coming back to Siruh du Lac.
11/2 is a terrible price and I have a shocking record in the race so I won’t be considering parting with any cash until Saturday when I hope there’s better value and more places....
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He's going to be putting a lot of them under pressure with him jumping and I'm struggling to see him out of the frame. I think he's got an outstanding chance
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
He's going to be putting a lot of them under pressure with him jumping and I'm struggling to see him out of the frame. I think he's got an outstanding chance
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I agree, it’s just a shame he’s been thoroughly found in the market. Think he may move back out on the day, may get involved then but 11/2 is too skinny imo
 
I’m confident 7/1 will be available come Sat morning and even if he is still 11/2 best price there will, at least, be 5/6 places available...
 
Folski said:
Spiritofthegames 7lb better off with SDL big swing for me.
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I definitely read Skelton say he's really well handicapped and goes well fresh and will run a big'un first time out.

He may well be my play, but I won't be going ante post when day of race markets are so vibrant (or night before anyway) in terms of places
 
I think it’s 6lb but SDL was made to make all when they met in March and I don’t recall Skelton’s horse closing the gap on the winner, and you’d have to say chasing a leader you have all options available, SDL looked game and genuine and I’d be prepared to say that 6lb won’t see the places reversed.
But I am an appalling judge in this race, genuinely can’t remember backing a winner since it wasn’t called The Mackeson...
 
No, I like SDL but knowing FM is on at 12s and seeing the price now I'm just obliged to look elsewhere for the moment.

Juice has gone in SDL now, and I don't like backing favs in handicaps, unless I took a bigger price cos then I can consider myself clever. :highly_amused:

I like opatcho's angle with Venetia to be honest....but I've not looked properly myself yet. Spend too much time on here
 
Istabraq said:
I think it’s 6lb but SDL was made to make all when they met in March and I don’t recall Skelton’s horse closing the gap on the winner, and you’d have to say chasing a leader you have all options available, SDL looked game and genuine and I’d be prepared to say that 6lb won’t see the places reversed.
But I am an appalling judge in this race, genuinely can’t remember backing a winner since it wasn’t called The Mackeson...
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6 it is. Rewatched the race and SDL was fantastic in the race, jumping was exceptional. Lizzie hasn't ridden a winner since I believe, only 8 rides this season also. How many handicaps can he keep winning though? Granted he is a young horse.

The other 2 I like are Count Meribel and The Venetia horse.
 
I bet Eamon De Cnoic (27/1) and Count Meribel (22/1) last month with WH. Fancied them both based on the stats I read in the Paul Ferguson book. I’m still worried that EDC will line up in the 1st race on Friday because it’s less competitive but he will be bottom weight if he holds out for Saturdays race. I really liked Count Meribels come back race a few weeks ago behind Lost in Translation. He jumped well and kept in touch with LiT throughout and a good warm up for the Bet Victor. NTD has a good strike rate in November and CM is well handicapped.
The other horse I’m drawn too is Bellas De Picton. Venetia is in good form and this horse runs well left handed (won 4 times) even though he’s not raced at Cheltenham and again is well handicapped.
 
Lair Du Vent really stood out finishing a close up 3rd at the last meeting. Tizzards think a hell of a lot of him. Travelled great that race and missed the last or he would have been closer. Was his first hurdle run. Will be fitter this time and ready to open his account in Friday's Ballymore Novice Hurdle.
 
Media Pack for those who are interested

https://files.constantcontact.com/205db977201/7d8bc978-d70a-4def-a4b2-84c92af96177.pdf

Horses that have run at November meeting and won at the festival

Season Horse The November Meeting The Festival
2018/19 Le Breuil 2nd Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase WON National Hunt Chase
2018/19 Tiger Roll 4th Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase WON Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
2018/19 Defi Du Seuil 5th Racing Post Arkle Trial Novices’ Chase WON JLT Novices’ Chase
2018/19 Frodon 2nd BetVictor Gold Cup WON Ryanair Chase

2017/18 Summerville Boy 2nd Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle WON Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2017/18 Coo Star Sivola 3rd Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase WON Ultima Handicap Chase
2017/18 Mohaayed 11th Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle WON Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle
2017/18 Le Prezien 3rd BetVictor Gold Cup WON Johnny Henderson Grand Annual

2016/17 Special Tiara 3rd Shloer Chase WON Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
2016/17 Defi Du Seuil WON JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial WON JCB Triumph Hurdle

2015/16 Unowhatimeanharry WON Open Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle WON Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
2015/16 Ballyandy WON “High Sheriff of Gloucestershire’s” NH Flat Race WON Weatherbys Champion Bumper
2015/16 Sprinter Sacre WON Shloer Chase WON Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
2015/16 Ballyalton 6th Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase WON Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase
2015/16 Un Temps Pour Tout 2nd Mallardjewellers.co.uk Novices’ Chase WON Ultima Handicap Chase
2015/16 Altior WON Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle WON Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2015/16 Any Currency WON Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, first past post disq Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase

2014/15 Next Sensation 11th Paddy Power Handicap Chase WON Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
2014/15 The Package 6th Murphy Group Handicap Chase WON Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir
2014/15 Uxizandre WON Shloer Chase WON Ryanair Chase
2014/15 Dodging Bullets 3rd Shloer Chase WON Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
2014/15 The Druids Nephew 2nd Murphy Group Handicap Chase WON Festival Trophy Handicap Chase

2013/14 Lac Fontana 4th Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle WON Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle
2013/14 Spring Heeled 8th Murphy Group Handicap Chase WON Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir
2013/14 Ballynagour PU BetVictor Gold Cup WON Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate
2013/14 Taquin Du Seuil WON Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase WON JLT Novices’ Chase
2013/14 Balthazar King WON Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase WON Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase
2013/14 Sire De Grugy 2nd Shloer Chase WON Queen Mother Champion Chase
2013/14 Whisper 3rd Martin Co & Jewellers Intermediate H’cap H WON Coral Cup
2013/14 Western Warhorse 2nd Open Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle WON Racing Post Arkle Trophy Chase
 
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So, an average of 4 winners out of 28 per year ran at the November meeting. Interesting but hardly earth-shattering.
 
archie said:
So, an average of 4 winners out of 28 per year ran at the November meeting. Interesting but hardly earth-shattering.
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I would expect there have been more winning off a run a Leopardstown in last decade.
 
I like my stats but without the numbers running in November and failing in March and the split by race there's little or no context.

Pretty much standard for the RP these days.
 
steelplate and sections novices has a good record, just hard to gauge which race, and which horse.
 
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