Cheltenham Handicap Shortlists

[JackieMoon33]

A place to note down any handicap plots that you spot during the season. Any nomination has to have more substance than ‘owned by JP McManus’.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Talkischeap - Ultima Handicap (3m)
Highly tried on debut and similarly on his upcoming second start which is also over an inadequate trip. Jumped well on debut and they could be getting him beaten in better company to preserve his mark for a while. Alan King has tended to aim one at the Ultima every season and this could be the one this year. Novices also have a good record in the race and 3 miles should be perfect.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Nube Negra - County Hurdle
I was not a fan leading up to last years Fred Winter but he ran a cracker and possibly hit the front too soon. Although it can be difficult for horses coming out of their juvenile season, he ran with promise in the Greatwood but possibly lacked match fitness for such a race. As the season progresses and he gains experience, he could be a player in the County as he seems an out and out 2 miler. Skelton has had recent success in the race too so knows how to get there in top form.

 

[charlie]

Barra
Don't know where she will be aimed yet but solid Cheltenham form. 2nd to Let's Dance in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle and 3rd in the Coral Cup this year. Made a winning start over fences at Kilbeggan where she jumped really well beating Clara Sorrento 24 lengths who has since come out and won a beginners chase and was then 2nd to Winter Escape in a Grade 3 novice chase at Cork. The hustle and bustle of a Cheltenham handicap won't phase Barra one bit, and I think she'll find improvement going over fences and in being stepped up in trip. I like everything about this mare. Cheltenham experience, breeding, connections, jumping ability. Think she will be under the radar so i'l be keeping a close eye out for when handicap markets open.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Barney Dwan for the Ultima. I'll come back later to update this and give reasoning.

 

[mayo]

Felix Desjy Martin Pipe. Cheltenham Bumper 6th. Impressive debut in Galway followed by 2 seemingly below par runs. Current RPR 132. May need to show some improvement to get in the race.
Trainer: Elliot had winner in 1st and 3rd in 2017. Will have best conditionals available to him.
Gigginstown: Winner in 2017. No runner 2016. Third 2015. Winner 2014. 4/12/BD in 2013. 2/4 in 2012. Winner 2011. For an outfit that run their horses on their merits they manage to get some well handicapped.

 

[Quevega]

FLAWLESS ESCAPE
obvious pick for me, went off favourite for Martin Pipe at last years festival and made two bad errors and was unplaced.
Finished rated 137 over hurdles, starts off in beginners chase tomorrow @ fairyhouse ridden by Russell, same race that the storyteller won last year. Will surely be aimed at one of the Handicaps at cheltenham, hurdles or fences to be fair, unless he improves dramatically over fences to be grade one class.
Can pretty much repeat a lot of that for DUCA DE THAIX - also running in handicap tomorrow at fairyhouse, rated just 133 over fences but well backed for county last year and looks like he's gaining plenty of experience chasing for one of the handicaps at the festival, will need to bump up rating a bit so might be worth backing tomorrow.

 

[jono]

Great idea Jackie

A couple for me right now:

The Worlds End - Ultima
Made a case for this horse in the win any race market a few weeks back after his chase debut. Since then he ran on the face of it a disappointing race at the track but that for me may mean his futures points more towards a race like this rather than the RSA / 4 Miler.
Could be on the higher end of the handicap (current mark of 152) but i'm hoping another 'below par' performance next time out might get his mark to around or just below 150 which i'd be more than happy with. Horses at the top of the market have ran very well in the last few renewals:

Shantou Flyer 2nd - 152
Beware the Bear 4th - 150
Un Temps Pour Tour 1st - 155
Noble Endeavour 4th - 154
Holywell 2nd - 153
Morning Assembly 4th - 150

He looked an absolute natural on his chasing debut and if he arrives there 4-5lbs short of his hurdles mark of 155 he's of huge interest for me. As Jackie mentions above novices have a good record in the race and they are the type who i'm increasingly drawn too in this race (and most). I won't bring up the ground debate again :highly_amused: but that is obviously a potential sticking point. You could also argue he's had 4 attempts at the track now and not registered a single win however for me in 3 of his 4 runs at the track he's travelled through the races really well which to me suggests the track isn't a concern. The AB run he fell too far out to tell and his 2 runs over hurdles in open company saw him travel through the race lovely only to find little up the hill. Maybe he just doesn't like the finish but i'm willing to put that down to the ground those days as last time out he actually stayed on well.

Tom George and Adrian Heskin were a beaten second a few years ago with Singlefarmpayment so the combination have form in the race.
And...let's not forget the owners - the McNeil family, one of being Max McNeill owns Ultima Business Solutions - the sponsors of the race

 

[Kevloaf]

And...let's not forget the owners - the McNeil family, one of being Max McNeill owns Ultima Business Solutions - the sponsors of the race

Sold.:highly_amused:

 

[jono]

Mr Big Shot - Ultima (again!)

I was impressed with his win at Aintree in the Spring - his first go at 3 miles and my first thought was for this race. Pipe has won the race 3 times in the last 10 years, notably twice with Un Temps Por Tout who runs for the same owner - Caroline Tisdall. He takes on Santini and Killbricken Storm tomorrow at Newbury where he's up against it. Interesting it was the same race Un Temps Por Tour ran in in 2015 (finished 2nd to Native River). That pushed the horse and connections towards handicaps and i'm hoping a similar situation will occur here. Depending on the result tomorrow it'll be very interesting if he then turned up at Cheltenham on trials day (like UTPT)

His hurdle mark of 148 was achieved with the single run over 3 miles which he looked to relish. He ran in last years Martin Pipe and actually ran a decent race - better than the 10th place finish suggests. He made good progress after being held up but just blew out around 3 out which is understandable given it was his first run of the season and for just short of a year.

I'm pretty reluctant to back a Pipe horse these days but I can't help but be drawn to him. A word of warning though he's an incredibly fragile horse so wouldn't be an antepost bet until nearer the time and unfortunately despite his recent record at Cheltenham overall would likely be a shorter price than expected closer to the time being a Pipe handicap runner.

 

[cpfcpatriot]

Minds Eye- Grand Annual

He’s a rogue.

I think he needs a pace in front of him to keep him concentrating, you’re not going to get a better race for that than the Grand Annual.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Mr Big Shot - Ultima (again!)

I was impressed with his win at Aintree in the Spring - his first go at 3 miles and my first thought was for this race. Pipe has won the race 3 times in the last 10 years, notably twice with Un Temps Por Tout who runs for the same owner - Caroline Tisdall. He takes on Santini and Killbricken Storm tomorrow at Newbury where he's up against it. Interesting it was the same race Un Temps Por Tour ran in in 2015 (finished 2nd to Native River). That pushed the horse and connections towards handicaps and i'm hoping a similar situation will occur here. Depending on the result tomorrow it'll be very interesting if he then turned up at Cheltenham on trials day (like UTPT)

His hurdle mark of 148 was achieved with the single run over 3 miles which he looked to relish. He ran in last years Martin Pipe and actually ran a decent race - better than the 10th place finish suggests. He made good progress after being held up but just blew out around 3 out which is understandable given it was his first run of the season and for just short of a year.

I'm pretty reluctant to back a Pipe horse these days but I can't help but be drawn to him. A word of warning though he's an incredibly fragile horse so wouldn't be an antepost bet until nearer the time and unfortunately despite his recent record at Cheltenham overall would likely be a shorter price than expected closer to the time being a Pipe handicap runner.

Another great call Jono. Could they somehow manage to keep him below the Kim Muir rating cut off of 145? He's one I'll be watching with interest tomorrow.

 

[Outlaw]

Felix Desjy Martin Pipe. Cheltenham Bumper 6th. Impressive debut in Galway followed by 2 seemingly below par runs. Current RPR 132. May need to show some improvement to get in the race.
Trainer: Elliot had winner in 1st and 3rd in 2017. Will have best conditionals available to him.
Gigginstown: Winner in 2017. No runner 2016. Third 2015. Winner 2014. 4/12/BD in 2013. 2/4 in 2012. Winner 2011. For an outfit that run their horses on their merits they manage to get some well handicapped.

Mayo , someone touched on Gigginstown record early in the year over on the betfair forum by highlighting certain races winners have run in ill copy the link below.

http://community.betfair.com/chelte...ipe-conditional-jockeys-hcap#flvWelcomeHeader

 

[archie]

For an outfit that run their horses on their merits they manage to get some well handicapped.

No comment.

 

[Folski]

FLAWLESS ESCAPE
obvious pick for me, went off favourite for Martin Pipe at last years festival and made two bad errors and was unplaced.
Finished rated 137 over hurdles, starts off in beginners chase tomorrow @ fairyhouse ridden by Russell, same race that the storyteller won last year. Will surely be aimed at one of the Handicaps at cheltenham, hurdles or fences to be fair, unless he improves dramatically over fences to be grade one.

Have had my eye on this one for the plate since last season. The other one I think could go close is Kings Socks

 

[Folski]

Mayo , someone touched on Gigginstown record early in the year over on the betfair forum by highlighting certain races winners have run in ill copy the link below.

http://community.betfair.com/chelte...ipe-conditional-jockeys-hcap#flvWelcomeHeader

I flagged BBB for that race in Limerick at 12/1 the night before last year and backed him at 33s for the Martin Pipe. Gordon is very much a creature of habit, he sends his novices to the Martin Pipe and 2nd season hurdlers to the Coral Cup. He also very much likes his handicap hopefuls to have plenty of runs.


Fred Winter - Veneer of Charm 3 runs but ran on flat all season last run in October.
Pertemps - Delta Work 5 runs start date 11 Nov.
Plate - The Story Teller 4 runs start date 7 Nov.
MP - Blow By Blow 5 runs start date 15 Nov.

 

[Folski]

Three Stars - Grand Annual
How I see this race the last few years.
2014 - a lot of talk about Next Sensation, he takes off at a mad pace and gets done up the hill.
2015 - I backed Solar Impulse and he was pulled late in the day, so I went for Next Sensation as he should have won it the year before, now no talk about the horse, he duly goes and wins.
2016 - Rock the world is backed into fav for this, I had a small saver on Solar Impulse as i had really fancied him the year prior, he wins with RTW 3rd.
2017 - Le Prezien is 7/2f for this and looks well in, who comes and wins it only last years fav RTW.
2018 - Le Prezien comes and wins in a canter.

I'm therefore thinking that a horse who was fancied to go well the year before is probably what you are looking for. Personally i backed Three Stars for this last year as i think the form of his run at Leopardstown where he gave Patricks Park a stone is very impressive, I was told PP was well fancied in the days up to that race and was duly backed from 16s to 6s on the day and won.

 

[Istabraq]

Gold Present - Ultima

Won't go into this with the ideal profile but was very strongly fancied for last seasons renewal until the Monday monsoon hit and ground went against him, he raced off 155 that day.
Earlier last season he won the big handicap at Ascot's Christmas meeting beating Frodon who has multiple graded wins to his name and went close off 161 in the Mackeson/Betvictor a fortnight ago, I was a little confused when he was declared for the Scottish National as he doesn't strike me as a horse who needs an extreme test of stamina.
Gold Present is currently rated 152 and with some careful placing could easily get into March's renewal off a nice mark and this race hasn't been the graveyard for 9yo some might think with three of that age and a 10yo winning since foot and mouth....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Elwood - I suspect either Pertemps, Coral Cup or Martin Pipe (if he qualifies)

Put up in the 'ante post bets' thread, and have backed 'any race' accordingly. Yet another for Gigginstown, looks as though he will go down the same sort of route as Delta Work I'd imagine, being a half brother of that one and coming from exactly the same connections as Delta Work did.

Fell first time out on debut for the yard but travelled with some promise, although was beat at the time, and should be noted he was put right in at the deep end in a listed hurdle. Not many first time out horses go for a listed hurdle unless they are one of 2 things, either an extremely talented horse, or looking to work on a handicap mark by getting him beat, I suspect the latter myself.

Currently he has an entry at Clonmel next week, but that's a pretty deep race (again) for only his second start, currently entered in the same race are horses like Total Recall, Scarpeta & Good Thyne Tara.

I'm not sure which race he will end up in, and the safe option is the 'any race' market but certainly one I am keen on.

 

[mayo]

Love this thread but have made note to myself not to bet the handicaps until NRNB