• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

archie said:
We all only use RPRs to prove a case when we're short of other arguments.

Given Tellwright's record, I'd want notarised proof of the race distance but Haydock's demands are nothing like Cheltenham. Lostintranslation is worth his place at the top of the market because people are of a mind to accept the price 14 weeks ahead of time. Surely, no-one would claim that his is the best form on offer, merely the best this season so far. If Kemboy and Al Boum Photo are as impressive on reappearance, will they be 3/1 as well?
Click to expand...

I’m not short of an argument, I am not even arguing. :)
All I was trying to say is that
(a) in the last eight years no second season chaser has been rated as good this early in the season.
(b) that his rating after one run in open company is already at the level of Kemboy and ABP.

I am not suggesting any result of the upcoming Gold Cup, just looking at the most recent Gold Cups and that LIT on balance is favourite because he is already good enough to win a Gold Cup (on ratings), and this is earlier than Kemboy and ABP revealed a similar rating.

It’s just stats, and providing reasoning for the bookies having him as market favourite.

If we don’t believe he is a worthy favourite then there must be value elsewhere. At this moment and at a much bigger price I think Footpad is interesting.
 
Just looked at B365 market to win KG & GC.
Cyrname and LIT are both 8-1, and Altior is 14-1 ??????????
FFS.
that's a disgrace.
 
nice write up Kev. i'm not in a rush to back anything for the race, plenty of water to pass under the bridge yet. i wouldnt completely give up on Santini. as you say GC should suit him perfectly, and he may have been giving a penalty away first time up to this years welsh national winner. Think you may have left a Tizzard horse off your list
 
quevega said:
Just looked at B365 market to win KG & GC.
Cyrname and LIT are both 8-1, and Altior is 14-1 ??????????
FFS.
that's a disgrace.
Click to expand...

That is a disgrace Q, they should just pull the market if they aren’t prepared to quote proper prices.
 
quevega said:
Just looked at B365 market to win KG & GC.
Cyrname and LIT are both 8-1, and Altior is 14-1 ??????????
FFS.
that's a disgrace.
Click to expand...

madness, although Clan des Obeaux @50s is tempting
 
Hamptonfox said:
I’m not short of an argument, I am not even arguing. :)
All I was trying to say is that
(a) in the last eight years no second season chaser has been rated as good this early in the season.
(b) that his rating after one run in open company is already at the level of Kemboy and ABP.

I am not suggesting any result of the upcoming Gold Cup, just looking at the most recent Gold Cups and that LIT on balance is favourite because he is already good enough to win a Gold Cup (on ratings), and this is earlier than Kemboy and ABP revealed a similar rating.

It’s just stats, and providing reasoning for the bookies having him as market favourite.

If we don’t believe he is a worthy favourite then there must be value elsewhere. At this moment and at a much bigger price I think Footpad is interesting.
Click to expand...

Apologies for not putting a smiley in on my first line.

My point was that we've all used RPRs from time to time but they are, in general, pretty poor. We'll see on Tuesday what the official handicapper thinks and that is far more meaningful.

I'm in no way knocking LIT's very decent performance, merely trying to put it in context. In all probability it will be next March before they take each other on and until then it's all opinions.
 
archie said:
Apologies for not putting a smiley in on that first line.

My point was that we've all used RPRs from time to time but they are, in general, pretty poor. We'll see on Tuesday what the official handicapper thinks and that is far more meaningful.

I'm in no way knocking LIT's very decent performance, merely trying to put it in context. In all probability it will be next March before they take each other on and until then it's all opinions.
Click to expand...

Handicapper is more meaningful of course, but i use RPRs regularly in my process on forming my opinion. Was sceptical on them to begin with but to be honest they're as useful as any other i believe. I know they aren't for everyone but they've worked ok for me.
 
Like any rating they're only as useful as they horse that they are pegged on in each race.

For looking at races on the day, you have to remember that the RPR on the racecard is based on the best RPR that that horse has achieved rather than the most recent. I find this more useful in some circumstances than in others but, in the end, like Timeform ratings it's just another available tool that we are free to use or not as suits.
 
RPR’s are the fastest to view and easier to compare with previous form, so my rating system of choice.

I use them for comparing horses RPR on certain ground, courses, trips etc, particularly when soft/heavy ground hits the racing.

Hampton Fox :)
Archie :)
 
Last edited:
Hamptonfox said:
jack1092 said:
Handicapper is more meaningful of course, but i use RPRs regularly in my process on forming my opinion. Was sceptical on them to begin with but to be honest they're as useful as any other i believe. I know they aren't for everyone but they've worked ok for me

They are the fastest to view and easier to compare with previous form, so my rating system of choice.
Click to expand...

agree with this and as you mention they are the fastest, quite often they are available later the same day of the race which is gold dust if your looking to form an opinion that might beat the market
Click to expand...
 
I always find it interesting when people are quite big on the ratings.

I hardly ever consider them outside of handicap company as they aren't really relevant?

Especially in a race like the Gold Cup... ABP may well be rated way higher than he actually is, because he won a Gold Cup.

ABP went into the Gold Cup rated 164 and Kemboy went in at 168.

ABP came out and was rated 175.

Kemboy then went to Aintree and won, then beat ABP 2L but is rated 1lb less for it.



The assumption being the Gold Cup was the better race, or that ABP was 'slightly' below his Gold Cup effort when Kemboy beat him fair and square at Punchestown.

No evidence for that though, but being skeptical, I'd say surely it is rare for them (handicappers) to say the GC wasn't the premium piece of 3m+ staying chase form.





Rendering the whole lot of the ratings useless (not useless but certainly something to look at with a doubtful eye), as whoever wins will end up with the best rating regardless. For me that doesn't mean the ratings showed that before or indeed after so it's not that useful a tool beforehand when punting
 
Last edited:
Hamptonfox said:
RPR’s are the fastest to view and easier to compare with previous form, so my rating system of choice.

I use them for comparing horses RPR on certain ground, courses, trips etc, particularly when soft/heavy ground hits the racing.

Hampton Fox :)
Archie :)
Click to expand...

billymag said:
Hamptonfox said:
agree with this and as you mention they are the fastest, quite often they are available later the same day of the race which is gold dust if your looking to form an opinion that might beat the market
Click to expand...

Billy, that’s a great use of the immediacy of RPR’s. I do that too, just to see how the visuals of watching a race compare or contrast with the ratings applied to it.
Click to expand...
 
The last of the 5/1 on Lostintranslation has gone, now just PP/Betfair at 9/2 are left above 4s.
 
For any LIT fans out there (from the RP Monday Jury).

Does Lostintranslation deserve to be Gold Cup favourite after his Betfair Chase win?
Luke Harvey, ITV presenter He definitely does. I’ve always been a big fan of the horse and what I like most about him is that he loves his work. He goes around with his ears pricked and is the most incredible jumper. I think these Tizzard horses are helped enormously by Robbie Power, who is a real horseman rather than just a jockey.

Cillin Leonard, jockey Yes, I thought he ran a great race at Haydock so he does deserve to be on the back of that. I watched it back after Ascot as well and it looked even nicer then. It was a top performance and Robbie Power gave him a great ride.

Gavin Sheehan, jockey Yes. I love the way he operates, he’s so quick from A to B and that allows him to travel easily into his races.

Danny Mullins, jockey I think he does. He has made the transition from good novice into the big league and while Cheltenham is very different to Haydock, on what we’ve seen of him so far, he deserves to be favourite. That being said, the Gold Cup is almost four months away and I’m sure last year’s winner Al Boum Photo will be back to defend his crown.

Michael Wilesmith, Betway I’d say so. It was a fine performance to beat Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai like that and it looked like he had a bit in hand, too. He jumps, travels and stays, and looks the clear pick of the British runners. The JLT form from last season looks like it’s out of the very top drawer.
 
Lostintranslation raised 12 to 173.

Altior left on 175
Cyrname raised 1 to 177
 
archie said:
Lostintranslation raised 12 to 173.

Altior left on 175
Cyrname raised 1 to 177
Click to expand...

Archie, as someone who is far better knowledgable than me on these matters would a 12lb rise be fair for a first run in open company or do you think the 'capper has looked at BDM and said that he's run to his form and the performance of LIT was 3lb superior ?
And would this view be replicated by the Irish 'capper ?
 
Generally speaking, I think that handicappers try not to make much of first runs of the season in conditions races. I thought that they would probably leave Altior and Cyrname as was, particularly as neither will be running in a handicap any time soon.

For the Haydock race, they've taken that view for BDM but Lostintranslation was able to confirm the impression made at Carlisle for which he wasn't moved. I'm slightly surprised that he's gone up that much. I'd probably have had BDM on 169/170 and LIT 170/171 but, again, a handicap is unlikely so it's more a case of salving owners' feelings.
 
173 must be right up there for a November rating for any horse going into Open Company?


Archie - probably the best man to ask?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom