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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

Kevloaf said:
The fact the Gold Cup is sponsered by Magners and the headline is:

Paul Nicholls rates Clan des Obeaux his best chance at The Festival presented by Magners



Makes me a little dubious as to whether he truely believes that :highly_amused:


I love Nicholls though. So much better than Henderson at everything from training racehorses, to being a human.
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I bumped into Nicholls on the way into the Betfair preview a few years ago. Shared a joke with him after the person on the desk asked for his ticket whilst they were sat in front of a big poster with Nicholls face on it. Legit lovely guy. Always great value on a panel
 
Bluefox21 said:
Don't think I've ever been so torn on a race. Was heavily invested last year in CDO and I'll be so sick if he wins this year with nothing on him. Backed Presenting Percy pre-Dublin Racing Festival NRNB as assumed he wouldn't go if didn't run well so got the worst of both worlds.

Managed this terrible so far! Any fans of LIT? I cannot get my head around his price. Would be the only one from front 5 in betting that I would completely scratch from shortlist....
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He's my biggest winner of the week, been backing him since just before Aintree last year. A bit left field here but i see a parallel between him and Imperial Commander in and around the season he won the GC.

Trained by a much maligned trainer (NTD was getting pelters especially just before IC won the Ryanair). Both had a promising season before the GC (IC won the Ryanair, LIT 2nd in the JLT) and both looked like they would appreciate further. Both came into Gold Cup consideration on the back of a brilliant run at Haydock in the Betfair chase (IC beaten a nose by the greatest of all time in Kauto Star, LIT beat Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai) which showed off some brilliant jumping. Both then went to the King George where they were poor on a track that possibly didn't suit either of them. Both didn't run until the Gold Cup where IC won very impressively at a course that suited him

(and hopefully LIT can do the same)

:D:D:D
 
Can't see past CDO being Conti mk. II tbh. I was very fond of LIT and think he could be the one for next year and I'd expect him to probably place.

Think gun to head I might side with Santini.
 
Altior said:
Can't see past CDO being Conti mk. II tbh. I was very fond of LIT and think he could be the one for next year and I'd expect him to probably place.

Think gun to head I might side with Santini.
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I’d need a gun to the head to side with Santini
 
charlie said:
I’d need a gun to the head to side with Santini
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If I go back far enough, were you with me when I was crabbing him during his novice hurdle and novice chase career for being chronically over rated?



My point at the time though was always that "he's a future Gold Cup horse" didn't mean he justified the price he is now.

It's my opinion now though, that because that theory has been proved right, people have forgotten that this horse has been "the" perfect Gold Cup horse, and this test is exactly what he wants.


I remember so many podcasts that gave him as the most exciting novice chase prospect, and ultimately he disappointed a bit.... but the Gold CUp was always going to be the race where he potentially puts in a career best.



His trajectory is going the right way.... I don't know how anybody could dismiss him, I really don't understand it now. (Ignoring price by the way, obviously I can see why 7/2 isn't a good value bet in this particular race given the depth)
 
He's my biggest winner of the week, been backing him since just before Aintree last year. A bit left field here but i see a parallel between him and Imperial Commander

Totally agree with this. I was on Imperial Commander that day & despite the noise around Kauto/Denman - I felt he had the most potential to improve that day as an “outsider”.

I’m of the exact same opinion this year with LIT. Henrietta Knight stated he’s the best jumper she’s seen since Best Mate for a reason. Yes, his prep’s not great being PU last time however the favourite for this has fallen 3 times in his career, the rest of the field have enough questions to answer too.

For me he’s the class horse in the race. All be it he has to improve on previous & IMO he will.
 
MadeinJapan said:
He's my biggest winner of the week, been backing him since just before Aintree last year. A bit left field here but i see a parallel between him and Imperial Commander

Totally agree with this. I was on Imperial Commander that day & despite the noise around Kauto/Denman - I felt he had the most potential to improve that day as an “outsider”.

I’m of the exact same opinion this year with LIT. Henrietta Knight stated he’s the best jumper she’s seen since Best Mate for a reason. Yes, his prep’s not great being PU last time however the favourite for this has fallen 3 times in his career, the rest of the field have enough questions to answer too.

For me he’s the class horse in the race. All be it he has to improve on previous & IMO he will.
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ABP hasn't fallen in his last 6 runs over the last two years, so it's fair to say his jumping has probably improved since he was a novice.
 
Combined with how slow he’s looked and the price of 7/2 I just couldn’t be backing Santini in this with anyone’s money. I feel he’ll get done for tactical speed vs the likes of ABP and Kemboy who is no slouch when they get their tactics right. I can see how others like him as a horse but on price grounds I simply could not be backing him
 
I am quite happy kemboy is the price he is at the minute, not got him backed yet but at 8 or 9/1 widely available think it’s a great price.

Flying under the radar because he’s been beaten a couple of times this season.

Also think delta work is still decent enough value at 6/1 in some places, much better form than santini this season having won 2 grade 1’s.

But as we all know the prices these days are shocking across the board.
 
Craigy14 said:
But as we all know the prices these days are shocking across the board.
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Yes, 1-2 weeks beforehand always a poor time for value but as we edge closer there should be the odd scrum for business so expect a little more juice to appear...
 
We're likely to get 5/1 the field between now and the start surely....

Just need to work out which you like and pick the right moment :highly_amused:
 
I thought there was an interesting point made on the at the races preview night last night

with no native river making it a true stamina test potentially leaves the pace to be slower. I know clan des obeux didn’t stay last year but do we think this could be a result of the hard pace which won’t be there this year. Looked impressive again in the king George and potentially stronger this year. Wind expected across the week to bring the ground a real good to soft also could help him out.


Can’t say he was one I was overly considering before last night but definitely can see the angle
 
Al Boum Photo
Bristol de Mai
Chris's Dream
Clan des Obeaux
Delta Work
Elegant Escape
Kemboy
Lostintranslation
Monalee
Presenting Percy
Real Steel
Santini
 
Skybet paying 5 places in this.

Added 2pts ew Bristol de Mai at 20/1. 4/1 that is comes in the top 5 is too big IMO
 
Lostintranslation is out to 11/1 (4 places)


Tizzard very weak, this week though.
 
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