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Cheltenham Festival Stats and Trivia

An interesting perspective on gold cup :) from the archives


http://www.thefreelibrary.com/All+g...+Of+Racing:+The+Cheltenham+Gold...-a060183705

THE Cheltenham Gold Cup*is widely (though mistakenly) regarded as the championship race for steeplechasers in Britain and Ireland, and some of the great champions of the century feature on its roll of honour.

Comparisons between Gold Cup winners of different eras are difficult because conditions have changed so much in the 75 years of the race's existence. Indeed, the top steeplechasers themselves have changed, with the big, strong Aintree types being superseded by speedier jumpers.

Dual Gold Cup hero Easter Hero put up the greatest Grand National performance of the century when second under top weight in a world record field in 1929, but he probably lacked the pace of Desert Orchid, who excelled on park courses (except Cheltenham) but would have struggled under 12st 7lb over the old upright Aintree fences.

All that can be said with certainty is that Easter Hero was as dominant in his era as Desert Orchid was in his, and common sense dictates they were approximately equal in merit.

Yet few Gold Cup winners have been of that calibre, and the classification on the right shows their ranking in the equine*pantheon.

The Gold Cup was founded in 1924 by the Cheltenham executive under chairman Frederick Cathcart, but it was not intended to be a championship race.

At the time the Grand National dwarfed all other steeplechases in terms of both prize-money and prestige, and the Gold Cup was designed as a trial race for it. It was not even the richest steeplechase*at the Cheltenham Festival, ranking below both the National Hunt Chase for amateur riders and the National Hunt Handicap Chase.

The relatively humble status of the Gold Cup meant that, of the 13 horses who won the race before 1946, all but Easter Hero and Golden Miller were below what we now regard as average Gold Cup-winning standard, and even those two used it as a stepping-stone to Aintree.

In assessing the merit of Cheltenham Gold Cup winners there is only one criterion: quality of performance. The number of Gold Cups won is irrelevant, otherwise Cottage Rake would be among the greats and Golden Miller would be the greatest. This is an assessment of quality, not quantity.

Pas Seul, who triumphed in 1960, is not widely regarded as one of the great Gold Cup winners, yet he could have won the race four times if things had gone his way. He had a decisive lead when falling at the final fence in*1959, was beaten by superior jockeyship in 1961, and was nobbled the following year.

Fred Winter*described Pas Seul as the best horse he ever rode, and the gelding's best form-notably when carrying top weight to victory in the 1961 Whitbread Gold Cup-was superior to Cottage Rake's best form.

Fame is also irrelevant, otherwise Dawn Run would be rated above Pas Seul.

Dawn Run acquired her legendary status by being the first, and so far only, horse to win both the Champion Hurdle*and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Yet her reputation is bogus because she was doubly lucky on both occasions; she would not have won either race without the recently introduced 5lb sex allowance and the absence of her biggest rival through injury.

In the 1986 Gold Cup she would have finished fourth, behind Wayward Lad, Forgive'N Forget and Run And Skip, if she had met them at level weights, and they would all have been trounced by Burrough Hill Lad had he not been forced to miss the race.

Dawn Run is one of several Gold Cup winners who have excelled over hurdles, and Cottage Rake and Knock Hard were versatile enough to win good handicaps on the Flat, but success in those spheres is irrelevant.

The classification assesses Gold Cup winners on their best form over fences. In many cases that means the form they showed in their moment(s) of glory at Cheltenham, but the great champions have usually shown their best form elsewhere.

THE three greatest steeplechasers since Arkle-Captain Christy, Burrough Hill Lad and Desert Orchid-all won the Gold Cup, but they were not at their best when they did so and have been assessed on their later form in races which were fairer tests of merit, like the King George VI Chase.

Many observers believe that the Gold Cup is the be-all and end-all*of a top steeplechaser's career and that the winner is automatically entitled to be called the season's champion steeplechaser, but that has never been true.

The Gold Cup is not a true championship race because in most years it does not identify the best steeplechaser. Only three Gold Cup winners of the 1990s-Jodami, The Fellow and Master Oats-were champions.

Desert Orchid consistently ran a stone below his best at Cheltenham, including when he actually won the Gold Cup in 1989. He was far superior to the horses who beat him into third place in the following two years, just as One Man was superior to those who beat him into sixth place in 1996 and '97.

The Gold Cup's origin as a National trial means that its 3m21/2f distance, combined with a stiff track and uphill finish, demands stamina far in excess of speed. It is as if the Derby and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe*were run over two miles.

Champions like Pendil, Desert Orchid and One Man have therefore been at a disadvantage against high-class plodders, and the Gold Cup roll of honour has suffered accordingly.
COPYRIGHT 1999 MGN LTD
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1999 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

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Cheltenham Track records ( via Howdi on Betfair)

DISTANCE/ RECORD HOLDER /COURSE RECORD/ RP STANDARD

2m(C)(13) Edredon Bleu (15Mar00) 3m 44.70s 3m 52.00s

2m110y(C)(14) Samakaan (IRE) (16Mar00) 3m 52.40s 3m 59.00s

2m110y(H)(8) Istabraq (IRE) (14Mar00) 3m 48.10s 3m 52.00s

2m1f(H)(8) Detroit City (USA) (17Mar06) 3m 51.20s 3m 56.00s

2m1f(H)(8) Moody Man (15Mar90) 3m 51.20s 3m 56.00s

2m4f110y(C)(16) Dark Stranger (FR) (15Mar00) 4m 49.60s 5m 0.00s

2m4f110y(H)(10) Gospel (20Apr94) 4m 45.00s 4m 47.00s

2m4f110y(H)(10) Sir Dante (IRE) (15Apr97) 4m 45.00s 4m 47.00s

2m5f(C)(17) Barnbrook Again (18Apr90) 5m 1.60s 5m 7.00s

2m5f(H)(10) Monsignor (IRE) (15Mar00) 4m 52.00s 5m 1.00s

2m5f110y(H)(10) Fashion House (19Sep68) 4m 53.60s 5m 1.00s

3m(H)(12) Bacchanal (IRE) (16Mar00) 5m 36.60s 5m 41.00s
 
Paul Jones


Here's a sobering thought for those who believe that winners at Cheltenham's three-day Open Meeting in November are ideal punting material to follow suit four months later at the Festival. The last 55 to try have all been beaten, many of which were very well fancied.

The last horse to complete the Open/Festival double in the same season was Imperial Commander in 2008/09 when he followed up his Paddy Power Gold Cup victory in the Ryanair Chase having finished sixth in the King George VI Chase in between. So you may want to think twice about supporting any of this season's 19 winners at the Open Meeting: Alvarado, Anay Turge, Balthazar Jack, Creepy, Dell' Arca, Dodging Bullets, Handy Andy, Home Run, John's Spirit, Kid Cassidy, Le Bec, Quick Jack, Red Sherlock, Return Spring, Royal Irish Hussar, Taquin Du Seuil, The Govaness, The Liquidator and Thomas Crapper.

On the other hand, there have been 14 Festival winners that were beaten at the Open Meeting during the same period, though, of course, many more horses beaten back at the three-day meeting in mid-November run at the Festival than winners. Last season, however, not one single Cheltenham Festival winner had run at the Open Meeting four months earlier.
 
^ that's a strange one?I can understand it with handicappers and juveniles but not so obvious why winning should hamper chances of le Bec TDS Dodging Bullets Red Sherlock ? Do Pipe horses peak too early in the season?
 
Training feats at The Festival

Trainers who have been successful in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup and Stan James Champion Hurdle in the same year

Year
Trainer
Gold Cup
Champion Hurdle
1930
Jack Anthony
Easter Hero
Brown Tony
1932
Basil Briscoe
Golden Miller
Insurance
1933
Basil Briscoe
Golden Miller
Insurance
1940
Owen Anthony
Roman Hackle
Solfold
1949
Vincent O'Brien IRE
Cottage Rake
Hatton's Grace
1950
Vincent O'Brien IRE
Cottage Rake
Hatton's Grace
1962
Fulke Walwyn
Mandarin
Anzio
1981
Peter Easterby
Little Owl
Sea Pigeon
1995
Kim Bailey
Master Oats
Alderbrook

No trainer has ever won the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, Stan James Champion Hurdle and BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase in the same season or the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, Stan James Champion Hurdle and the Ladbrokes World Hurdle in the same season. Jim Dreaper won the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Ladbrokes World Hurdle in 1975 with Ten Up, Lough Inagh and Brown Lad respectively, while Paul Nicholls emulated the feat in 2009 with Kauto Star (Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup), Master Minded (BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase) and Big Buck's (Ladbrokes World Hurdle).

Most successful trainers in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

5
Tom Dreaper IRE (1946 Prince Regent, 1964, 1965 and 1966 Arkle, 1968 Fort Leney)


4
Basil Briscoe (1932, 1933, 1934 and 1935 Golden Miller)

Paul Nicholls (1999 See More Business, 2007 and 2009 Kauto Star, 2008 Denman)

Vincent O'Brien IRE (1948, 1949 and 1950 Cottage Rake, 1953 Knock Hard)

Fulke Walwyn (1952 Mont Tremblant, 1962 Mandarin, 1963 Mill House, 1973 The Dikler)


3
Owen Anthony (1927 Thrown In, 1936 Golden Miller, 1940 Roman Hackle)

Henrietta Knight (2002, 2003 and 2004 Best Mate)


2
Ivor Anthony (1938 Morse Code, 1941 Poet Prince)

Jack Anthony (1929 and 1930 Easter Hero)

George Beeby (1939 Brendan's Cottage, 1951 Silver Fame)

Noel Chance (1997 Mr Mulligan, 2000 Looks Like Trouble)

Michael Dickinson (1982 Silver Buck, 1983 Bregawn)

Peter Easterby (1979 Alverton, 1981 Little Owl)

Nicky Henderson (2011 Long Run, 2013 Bobs Worth)

Dan Moore IRE (1970 and 1971 L'Escargot)

Most successful trainers in the Stan James Champion Hurdle

5
Peter Easterby (1967 Saucy Kit, 1976 and 1977 Night Nurse, 1980 and 1981 Sea Pigeon)

Nicky Henderson (1985, 1986 and 1987 See You Then, 2009 Punjabi, 2010 Binocular)


4
Vic Smyth (1941 Seneca, 1942 Forestation, 1947 and 1948 National Spirit)

Fred Winter (1971 and 1972 Bula, 1974 Lanzarote, 1988 Celtic Shot)


3
Colin Davies (1968, 1969 and 1970 Persian War)

Aidan O'Brien IRE (1998, 1999 and 2000 Istabraq)

Ryan Price (1955 Clair Soleil, 1959 Fare Time, 1961 Eborneezer)

Willie Stephenson (1952, 1953 and 1954 Sir Ken)

Most successful trainers in the BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase

6
Tom Dreaper IRE (1960 and 1961 Fortria, 1964 Ben Stack, 1966 Flyingbolt, 1969 Muir, 1970 Straight Fort)


4
Paul Nicholls (1999 Call Equiname, 2004 Azertyuiop, 2008 and 2009 Master Minded)


3
Michael Dickinson (1982 Rathgorman, 1983 and 1984 Badsworth Boy)

Nicky Henderson (1992 Remittance Man, 2012 Finian's Rainbow, 2013 Sprinter Scare)

Most successful trainers in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle

4
Paul Nicholls (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 Big Buck's)


3
Howard Johnson (2005, 2007 & 2008 Inglis Drever)

Fulke Walwyn (1982 & 1986 Crimson Embers, 1985 Rose Ravine)


2
Francois Doumen FR (2002 & 2003 Baracouda)

Nicky Henderson (1989 Rustle, 2000 Bacchanal)

John Mulhern IRE (1987 and 1988 Galmoy)

Edward O'Grady IRE (1978 Flame Gun, 1980 Mountrivers)

Martin Pipe (1994 Balasani, 1996 Cyborgo)
 
Back horses in first time headgear

A curious Festival smoke-signal relates to horses wearing some form of headgear (blinker, visor or hood) for the first time in mid-March. Last year on Day 3 of the Festival, Benefficient, Holywell and Same Difference all wore some form of first-time headgear and combined to win 50 per cent of the races on the card at cumulative odds of nearly 8,300/1. What is more remarkable is that they were the only three horses on the day to try new accessories for the first time. Flaxen Flare was another to fall into the same category during the Festival and bolted up in the Fred Winter at 25/1. There were just 14 qualifiers in this category all week in 2013 and, in addition to those four winners, Ackertac was only beaten a neck at 66/1; Rock On Ruby finished second in the Champion Hurdle; and His Excellency third in the Arkle at 80/1.
 
Back horses in first time headgear

@geofflester: Gr8 Cheltenham preview tonight - Jessie Harrington will run Jezki in hood in Champion in an attempt to get him to relax.
 
Headgear Stat well worth following this year

Western Warhorse 33/1
Jezki 9/1

On Day 1

I tweeted this on Day 2

Fred Winter
First time hood Orgilio Bay
Blinkers Certification
Cheek Pieces Ackdam Hawk High


Result

1 Hawk High (IRE) 33/1 4 B Hughes T D Easterby
2 Katgary (FR) 8/1 4 D A Jacob P F Nicholls
3 Orgilgo Bay (IRE) 16/1 4 M J Bolger J C McConnell
 
Jockeys Table 2014

ockey Wins 2nd 3rd

Ruby Walsh 3 3 -

Barry Geraghty 3 - 3

Tom Scudamore 3 - 2

Davy Russell 3 - 1

Richard Johnson 2 - -

Mr Robbie McNamara 2 - -

A P McCoy 1 3 2

Daryl Jacob 1 2 -

Paul Carberry 1 1 2

Nico de Boinville 1 1 -

Brian Hughes 1 1 -

Mikey Fogarty 1 - -

Richie McLernon 1 - -

Jamie Moore 1 - -

Mr Joshua Newman 1 - -

Brendan Powell 1 - -

Mr James Smyth 1 - -

Robert Thornton - 2 2

David Casey - 2 -

Ms Nina Carberry - 1 1

Paul Townend - 1 1

Leighton Aspell - 1 -

David Bass - 1 -

Dominic Elsworth - 1 -

Will Kennedy - 1 -

Andrew McNamara - 1 -

Mr Noel McParlan - 1 -

Mr Derek O'Connor - 1 -

Joseph Palmowski - 1 -

Ian Popham - 1 -

Andrew Tinkler - 1 -

Sam Twiston-Davies - - 3

Mr Sam Waley-Cohen - - 2

Mark Bolger - - 1

Paddy Brennan - - 1

Davy Condon - - 1

Bryan Cooper - - 1

Harry Derham - - 1

Noel Fehily - - 1

Mr Patrick Mullins - - 1

Andrew Thornton - - 1
 
Leading Trainer

Trainer Wins 2nd 3rd

Willie Mullins IRE 4 6 2

Jonjo O'Neill 3 1 -

David Pipe 3 - 1

Philip Hobbs 2 1 -

Jim Culloty IRE 2 - -

Nicky Henderson 1 4 3

Alan King 1 2 2

Paul Nicholls 1 2 1

Gordon Elliott IRE 1 1 1

Noel Meade IRE 1 1 -

Rebecca Curtis 1 - 1

Tim Easterby 1 - -

Jessica Harrington IRE 1 - -

Liam Lennon IRE 1 - -

Tony Martin IRE 1 - -

Gary Moore 1 - -

Jamie Snowden 1 - -

Dermot Weld IRE 1 - -

Emma Lavelle - 1 1

Mick Channon - 1 -

Robin Dickin - 1 -

Shark Hanlon IRE - 1 -

Malcolm Jefferson - 1 -

Martin Keighley - 1 -

Colin McBratney - 1 -

Oliver Sherwood - 1 -

Ian Williams - 1 -

Dessie Hughes IRE - - 2

Nigel Twiston-Davies - - 2

Enda Bolger IRE - - 1

David Bridgwater - - 1

Charles Byrnes IRE - - 1

Pat Fahy IRE - - 1

Tom George - - 1

Edward Harty IRE - - 1

Charlie Longsdon - - 1

Peter Maher IRE - - 1

John McConnell IRE - - 1

Dr Richard Newland - - 1

Richard Rowe - - 1
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>A peak Sprinter Sacre tops our list of two-mile chasers this century. Which one of these greats is your favourite? <a href="http://t.co/wgiIPbBlow">pic.twitter.com/wgiIPbBlow</a></p>— Timeform (@Timeform1948) <a href="https://twitter.com/Timeform1948/status/571052220206219264">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>A peak Sprinter Sacre tops our list of two-mile chasers this century. Which one of these greats is your favourite? <a href="http://t.co/wgiIPbBlow">pic.twitter.com/wgiIPbBlow</a></p>— Timeform (@Timeform1948) <a href="https://twitter.com/Timeform1948/status/571052220206219264">February 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Moscow Flyer, absolute class act. Incredible the roar he got when holding Well Chief at bay to win his second Champion Chase.
 
Anyone know what was Kautos best 2 mile number ?
 
Stand to be corrected but I think he got an RPR of 179 for beating VPU in his second TC. Not sure of his timeform 2m rating.

Not too shabby.

Moscow in my top 3 favourite horses ever.
 
The excellent Ben Aiken

5 festival stats that will need to be broken…

1 – Thistlecrack and the Tom Scudamore Hurdle stat…
If Thistlecrack is to justify red-hot World Hurdle favouritism Tom Scudamore will need to ride his FIRST EVER festival hurdles winner…

Yep Tom Scudamore has NEVER ridden a winner at the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles.

His record over hurdles at the festival is a rather worrying…

0/94 | 0% S/R | -£94.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/94 | 10% S/R

*my recent free guide states 0/91 but I forgot to add in 3 rides he had as an amateur

On Thursday he will be tasked with guiding home Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle, the hottest fav at the meeting (along with Yanworth) out with the Mullins hot-pots.

Thistlecrack is unbeaten in three starts this season. He’s taken in the major trials for the race and humped the opposition each time. He has looked an absolute beast at times and I would say he is very much deserving of his red-hot favouritism.

But those Scudamore stats are certainly a concern.

I’ll be honest I was struggling to pick holes in the Thistlecrack armoury. I was beginning to think he didn’t have any. The horse, in fairness, maybe doesn’t. The jockey, however, almost certainly does.

Can Scudamore bust his devastatingly poor festival hurdle record?

The defence…

He’s never been on one this short before…

In all of those 94 rides he has never once sat on one that’s started as short as Thistlecrack is likely to. In fact only three of them have even started as favourite.

His overall record over Cheltenham hurdles (excluding the festival) isn’t all that bad…

13/118 | 11% S/R | -£43.59 BFLSP – Win & Place 29/118 | 25% S/R

OK you won’t have gotten rich backing them all but 11% strike-rate is passable. Certainly better than his festival strike-rate of 0%.

Conclusion…

Tom Scudamore may never have a better chance than this to break his festival hurdles hoodoo. He’s on the highest rated horse in the race, who has the best form and is proven over course and distance.

However, if you are looking for a negative against Thistlecrack I’ve just given you one. A rather hefty one.

Tom Scu this is your chance to scoff at the stats…

.

2 – The Willie Mullins Gold Cup/3m+ stats…
If one of Mullins’ leading Gold Cup contenders is to land the big one he needs to smash his Gold Cup hoodoo…

The Gold Cup is one of the very few major races that Mullins hasn’t quite managed to capture just yet.

His overall record in the race is…

0/14 | 0% S/R | -£14.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/14 | 43% S/R

OK I’m probably (definitely!!) being over-harsh describing Mullins’ Gold Cup record as a ‘hoodoo’ so it’s probably fairer to look at his record at the festival (since 2000) in races run over 3 miles or further.

Those figures come out as a rather worrying…

4/96 | 4% S/R | -£48.69 BFLSP – Win & Place 27/96 | 28% S/R

48% below expectation

Now if you compare that to his record over trips shorter than 3 miles (in the same period)…

32/234 | 14% S/R | +£109.19 BFLSP – Win & Place 63/234 | 27% S/R

46% above expectation

…you can see why that 3m+ figures start to become a bit of a concern.

Even more of a worry when you have Djakadam, Vautour and Don Poli ALL trading at 6-1 or less for the Gold Cup.

The defence…

One of those four winners over 3m+ is the doughty Don Poli…

Don Poli has already scoffed at those stats. They mean nothing to him. 3m+ at Cheltenham holds no fear for the 7yo.

This is easily the strongest group of runners Willie Mullins have EVER sent to the Gold Cup…

Djakadam (2nd in the 2015 Gold Cup) – Vautour (destroyed the JLT field in 2015 & 2nd to Cue Card in the King George) – Don Poli (ran away with the 2015 RSA Chase & has won 5 of his 6 chase starts, 3 of which are G1’s) – Valseur Lido (should have won the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup).

However you shake it up this is a strong Gold Cup squad.

Conclusion…

Mullins really isn’t anywhere near as potent over staying trips as he is over the shorter trips, the figures comprehensively back that.

He’s fired plenty of bullets at the Gold Cup (only two, Nicholls and M Pipe, have fired more in the past 17 years) but all have come up short, again highlighting his lesser record at the festival over the longer trips.

In Don Poli, however, he has a horse that he knows can win over the staying trips at Cheltenham in March and if any of his battalion are going to bust his Gold Cup hoodoo (must stop using that term!) then surely it will be him…

.

3 – The Alan King G1 Hurdle stat…
If Yanworth is to land the odds in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle then Alan King needs to turn his G1 Hurdle figures around…

It doesn’t seem that long ago since Alan King was firing in Grade 1 Festival winners left, right and centre. Recently, however, that has not been the case, especially over hurdles.

These are the stats for his G1 Cheltenham Festival hurdlers since 2009…

0/37 | 0% S/R | -£37.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/37 | 16% S/R

Not great, it has to be said.

In fact we can expand upon those figures further because it’s not just his G1 hurdlers that have been mis-firing, it’s his hurdlers in general.

Check his record in ALL festival hurdle races since 2009…

1/73 | 1% S/R | -£34.95 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/73 | 25% S/R

That’s actually pretty shocking to be fair and also a touch surprising.

His Yanworth is currently odds-on in places for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle.

Yanworth seemingly just has to turn up and the race is his.

Like Thistlecrack the horse himself has no obvious weaknesses.

Yanworth’s weak point comes from his trainer. A trainer who has recent form over the festival hurdles of ONE winner from 73 horses.

That’s a hell of a lot of losers.

The defence…

Horses starting at 2-1 or less in this race have a decent record…

Since 1997 11 horses have started at 2-1 or less, six have won and the other five have all placed. They have a form line of 13132221111.

Alan King’s has his string in the best form since the 2008-09 season…

King’s runners haven’t really been firing at the high levels we expect for a numbers of seasons now. This season, however, his string have been bouncing and he’s picked up a number of hefty prizes and also looks to have a clutch of exciting prospects coming through the ranks, Yanworth being one of them.

Conclusion…

King’s recent hurdle record at the meeting is undoubtedly sketchy at best, however, Yanworth almost certainly has the potential to be the best hurdler he has had in his yard for some time.

Saying that we are being asked to take an exceedingly short price about a horse from a yard with a recent festival hurdles record of 1/73 and 0/37 in G1 hurdles.

Hmmmm…

.

4 – The Ryanair Irish trained stat…
If the Irish are to justify their strong standing in the Ryanair betting then they need to bust their 11 year hoodoo in the race…

Did I just use hoodoo again?!

Anyway…

Irish trained horses currently hold five of the first six places in the betting for the Ryanair Chase, including the top two spots.

However, they are yet to win any of the eleven renewals of the race. To date it is the one major festival race where they haven’t managed to get one on the board.

The overall figures for Irish trained horses in the G1 Ryanair Chase is…

0/32 | 0% S/R | -£32.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/32 | 25% S/R

Currently they have Vautour, Road To Riches, Valseur Lido, Smashing and Vroum Vroum Mag trading at 8-1 or shorter for the race.

For reason’s unknown, however, it’s a race they just haven’t managed to land yet but here they are gobbling up a majority of the market.

The defence…

Vautour & Road To Riches both have solid festival form on their CV…

Vautour destroyed his JLT field last term and ran away with the Supreme the year before whilst Road To Riches ran an excellent third in the Gold Cup behind Coneygree.

There are no outstandingly strong contenders this side of the Irish Sea to take them on with…

Al Ferof is the shortest UK player in the betting (3rd fav at around 6/1) but he’s an 11yo. 11yo’s are 0/138 in NON-HANDICAP races at the festival since 2006. I can’t have him for this. Next in the betting is Vibrato Valtat and Josses Hill, hardly the most straight-forward of chasers currently around.

Conclusion…

It is a race that has eluded the Irish so far but this does look the best chance they’ve had to date, highlighted in no uncertain terms by there utter domination of the betting market. However, how many of the five that currently sit at the top of the market are actually going to turn up? VV Mag is fav for the Mares Hurdle. It would appear its Gold Cup or nothing for Vautour. It also seems highly likely that Valseur Lido heads down the Gold Cup route.

Suddenly the strength in numbers looks plenty weaker…

Time to start searching for a UK based runner at tasty odds…

.

5 – The Montjeu Hurdle stat…
If Ivanovich Gorbatov is to win the Triumph Hurdle then he has to overcome THAT Montjeu stat…

Whoooaaaa! I’m not going there am I?

Hell yeah I’m going there. Try and stop me!

These are the stats for Montjeu hurdlers at Cheltenham (any time of year)…

2/75 | 3% S/R | -£68.55 BFLSP – Win & Place 17/75 | 23% S/R

64% below expectation

The two winners were the same horse. The one and only HURRICANE FLY.

Clearly the best National Hunt horse Montjeu has ever sired. In fact he’s one of the all time great two mile hurdlers. For me he sits just below the mighty Istabraq.

Take Hurricane Fly out of the equation and those stats become 0/70.

Even with Hurricane Fly in the equation the stats are below average and there is just something about the Cheltenham hill that Montjeu offspring just don’t appreciate.

Ivanovich Gorbatov is a Montjeu kid. The stats suggest he may not be all that comfortable on the undulations of Cheltenham.

When did I first highlight this stat?

Just before Hurricane Fly won his first Champion Hurdle! D’oh!

The fact he still remains the only Montjeu hurdler to master the hill says plenty though. Not only about the sheer class of that horse but also about the struggles the Montjeu kids have at the home of jumps racing.

The facts are that offspring of certain sires simply don’t act on some tracks. The stats say Montjeu kids DON’T act at Cheltenham. Ivanovich Gorbatov is a Montjeu kid. He’s fav for the Triumph. The angle needs factored in to the wider picture (that’s the important thing by the way, the WIDER picture).

The defence…

No real defence to give here. Stats suggest Montjeu kids don’t enjoy the track so he has to do a Hurricane Fly and prove me wrong. Good luck.

Conclusion…

Hurricane Fly remains the only Montjeu kid to bust the Cheltenham Hurdling stat. Is Ivanovich Gorbatov good enough to add his name to that list? I guess we will find out soon enough…

- See more at: http://www.narrowing-the-field.co...o-be-broken/#sthash.vW7Z3RSO.dpuf
 
Barry Geraghty's brilliant sequence comes to an end ...he had a winner every year since 2002. Was freelance for a lot of that time so took some doing.

Hope he isn't out for too long. This festival really is missing too many stars. Ruby should be put in cotton wool for the next fortnight.